RDP 2025-08: Ageing and Economic Growth in China References

Acemoglu D and P Restrepo (2017), ‘Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation’, The American Economic Review, 107(5), pp 174–179.

Aksoy Y, HS Basso, RP Smith and T Grasl (2019), ‘Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends’, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11(1), pp 193–222.

Baird A (2024), ‘Urban Residential Construction and Steel Demand in China’, RBA Bulletin, April.

Ball L (2014), ‘Long-term Damage from the Great Recession in OECD Countries’, European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies, 11(2), pp 149–160.

Bicker L (2024), ‘China's Ageing Population: A Demographic Crisis Is Unfolding for Xi’, BBC.com, 2 April, accessed 27 June 2024. Available at <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-68595450>.

Bodnár K and C Nerlich (2022), ‘The Macroeconomic and Fiscal Impact of Population Ageing’, ECB Occasional Paper No 296.

Brandt L, J Litwack, E Mileva, L Wang, Y Zhang and L Zhao (2022), ‘Recent Productivity Trends in China: Evidence from Macro- and Firm-level Data’, China: An International Journal, 20(1), pp 93–113.

Cai F (2021), ‘A Tale of Two Sides: How Population Ageing Hinders Economic Growth in China’, China: An International Journal, 19(3), pp 79–90.

Cai F and Y Lu (2013), ‘Population Change and Resulting Slowdown in Potential GDP Growth in China’, China & World Economy, 21(2), pp 1–14.

Cerdeiro DA and C Ruane (2022), ‘China's Declining Business Dynamism’, IMF Working Paper No WP/22/32.

Cingano F (2014), ‘Trends in Income Inequality and its Impact on Economic Growth’, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No 163.

Department of Education, Skills and Employment (2022), ‘“Double Reduction Plan” Reduces Homework and Off-campus Tutoring for Chinese School Students’, International Education Engagement Resource, 20 January.

Goldsmith-Pinkham P, I Sorkin and H Swift (2020), ‘Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How’, The American Economic Review, 110(8), pp 2586–2624.

IMF (International Monetary Fund) (2019), ‘Macroeconomics of Aging and Policy Implications’, G-20 Background Note, 5 June.

IMF (2023), ‘People's Republic of China: 2022 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the People's Republic of China’, IMF Country Report No 23/67.

Ji S (2023), ‘China Population: Cities Unveil New Childbirth Incentives as First Decline in More than 6 Decades Looms’, South China Morning Post online, 12 January, accessed 27 June 2024. Available at <https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3206420/china-unveils-new-childbirth-incentives-population-growth-set-turn-negative>.

Jiang D and Zhao W (2023), ‘The Impact of Aging Speed on China's Economic Growth-An Analysis from the Perspective of Economic Inputs’, 2023(08), pp 63-80.

Lim J and A Cowling (2016), ‘China's Demographic Outlook’, RBA Bulletin, June, pp 35-42.

Maestas N, KJ Mullen and D Powell (2023), ‘The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity’, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 15(2), pp 306-332.

Marois G, S Gietel-Basten and W Lutz (2021), ‘China's Low Fertility May Not Hinder Future Prosperity’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 118(40), e2108900118.

Mason A, S-H Lee and D Park (2022), ‘Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Old-age Economic Security: Asia and the World’, Asian Development Review, 39(01), pp 131-167.

National Bureau of Statistics of China, United Nations Population Fund and United Nations Children's Fund (NBS, UNFPA and UNICEF) (2018), ‘Domestic Migrants in China (2018): Trends, Challenges and Recommendations’, Joint data project. Available at <https://china.unfpa.org/en/report/20190816>.

Ni C, Chen Y and Qiu X (2014), ‘A Review of Research on the Impact of Aging on Economic Growth in China’, 2014(09), pp 87-93.

Reuters (2023), ‘China to Raise Retirement Age to Deal with Aging Population – Media’, Reuters online, 14 March, accessed 27 June 2024. Available at <https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-raise-retirement-age-deal-with-aging-population-media-2023-03-14/>.

Reuters (2024), ‘Exclusive: China to Issue $284 billion of Sovereign Debt This Year to Help Revive Economy’, Reuters online, 26 September, accessed 10 October 2024. Available at <https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-issue-284-bln-sovereign-debt-this-year-help-revive-economy-sources-say-2024-09-26/>.

Rozelle S and M Boswell (2021), ‘Complicating China's Rise: Rural Underemployment’, The Washington Quarterly, 44(2), pp 61-74.

Ruggles S, L Cleveland, R Lovaton, S Sarkar, M Sobek, D Burk, D Ehrlich, Q Heimann and J Lee (2024), ‘IPUMS International: D020.V7.5’, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, accessed 27 June 2024. Available at <https://www.ipums.org/about/citation>.

Song J and Gao C (2022), ‘The Impact of Aging on Economic Growth and its Mechanisms—From the Perspective of Labor Supply and Social Security Expenditure’, 2022(11), pp 1-18.

Staiger D and JH Stock (1997), ‘Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments’, Econometrica, 65(3), pp 556-586.

United Nations Population Division (2024), ‘World Population Prospects’, accessed 27 June 2024. Available at <https://population.un.org/wpp/>.

Xi J (2024), ‘Supporting Chinese-style Modernization with High-quality Population Development’, Qiushi, online, 2022(22). Available at <https://www.qstheory.cn/dukan/qs/2024-11/15/c_1130219268.htm>.

Xinhua (2024), ‘(China Economic Roundtable) China Focus: Raising Retirement Age a Proactive Response to Population Aging’, Xinhua, 14 September, accessed 10 October 2024. Available at <https://english.news.cn/20240914/65d3d69c9e6a4cf89dbee6a063db65f5/c.html>.

Xinhua (2025), ‘China's Nationwide Childcare Subsidy Program Opens for Applications’, Xinhua, 8 September, accessed 3 November 2025. Available at <https://english.news.cn/20250908/017d557a9dbd4dc385c24539bb4d530d/c.html>.

Yan F, Q Li and N Pan (2023), ‘Regional Differences and Spatial Effects of the Aging Impact on Economic Growth’, 2023(12), pp 103-112.

Yang J, F He and T Chen (2023), ‘Empirical Evidence on the Impact of Population Aging on Growth’, 2023(02), pp 125-129.

Ye J, Z Chen and B Peng (2021), ‘Is the Demographic Dividend Diminishing in China? Evidence from Population Aging and Economic Growth during 1990-2015’, Review of Development Economics, 25(4), pp 2255-2274.

Yiu P, G Li, CK Tan and M Obe (2023), ‘China's Aging Population Threatens a Japan-style Lost Decade’, Nikkei Asia online, 22 March, accessed 27 June 2024. Available at <https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/the-big-story/china-s-aging-population-threatens-a-japan-style-lost-decade>.

Zhao Y (2021), ‘China Rolls Out Detailed Plan to Raise Retirement Age, Deal with Aging Society’, Global Times online, 14 March, accessed June 2024. Available at <https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1218323.shtml>.