Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2026-05 Real GDP Forecasts by International Organisations

Contents

• Introduction
• Literature Review
• Data
• Comparing Accuracy Across Forecasters
• Testing Forecast Rationality
• Explanations for Rejection of Rationality
• Conclusion
• Appendix A: Detail on Data
• Appendix B: Comparing Accuracy Across Forecasters
• Appendix C: Proofs for Section 6.1
• References

We thank Zidong An for providing the initial dataset and helpful discussions. We thank Michael Clements, Alexandre Kohlhas, Gabriela Nodari and Matthew Read for detailed feedback. We are grateful to Paula Drew for publications assistance. We also thank participants at the 42nd International Symposium on Forecasting, the 3rd Vienna Workshop on Economic Forecasting and the Reserve Bank of Australia seminar for helpful comments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Reserve Bank of Australia or the Central Bank of Malta. Any errors are the sole responsibility of the authors.

Endnotes

Reserve Bank of Australia [*]

Central Bank of Malta [**]

Johns Hopkins University [***]