RDP 2014-01: Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes, Past and Present Appendix C: Economic Indicators around Terms of Trade Peaks

Tim Atkin, Mark Caputo, Tim Robinson and Hao Wang

January 2014 – ISSN 1320-7229 (Print), ISSN 1448-5109 (Online)

Table C1: Growth Rates Before (B) and After (A) Terms of Trade Peaks
Per cent
1904/05 1924/25 1950/51 1974 2011
B A B A B A B A B A
Per capita
GDP 3 8   3 −1   4 −1   3 1   1 1
Private consumption 2 5   6 1   2 −3   5 1   2 0
Dwelling investment −2 11   2 4   19 −3   2 2   0 −3
Business investment −10 24   −3 −7   16 −6   8 −11   14 1
Exports 9 4   5 4   −2 4   −7 8   2 4
Imports −2 5   10 5   17 −21   16 −4   13 −2
Terms of trade 3 −1   26 −15   22 −18   17 −10   19 −9
Export prices 2 5   17 −14   34 −11   24 10   14 −6
Import prices −1 6   −7 1   10 8   6 22   −3 4

Notes: Growth rates are for the two years before and after the peak in the terms of trade; quarterly data are usedfor the 1974 and 2011 episodes, earlier episodes are based on annual data

Sources: ABS; Butlin MW (1977); Gillitzer and Kearns (2005); McKenzie (1986); authors' calculations