RDP 8810: The Relationship Between Actual Investment and Survey-Based Expectations Appendix

Paul Brennan and Tania Milavec

December 1988

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
CONSTRUCTION
  July-August
Survey		 April-May
Survey		 January-February
Survey
Constant −0.1968
(−4.578)		 0.0077
(0.095)		 −0.0111
(−0.125)
Demand 4.0829
(5.765)		 3.5086
(2.640)		 4.7761
(3.319)
Interest rates −0.4456
(−3.571)		 −0.1800
(−1.281)		 0.5716
(2.950)
Profits – – –
Inline Equation 77.72% 36.27% 57.86%
DW 2.39 1.340 1.973
EQUIPMENT
  July-August
Survey		 April-May
Survey		 January-February
Survey
Constant −0.078
(−1.945)		 −0.0435
(−0.642)		 −0.1360
(−1.424)
Demand – – –
Interest rates −0.312
(−5.014)		 −0.2334
(−3.613)		 0.2286
(1.976)
Profits 1.300
(4.138)		 1.9223
(3.692)		 2.7870
(3.646)
Inline Equation 81.89% 73.73% 64.51%
DW 1.387 2.259 2.811