Appendix F | RDP 7904: Some Aspects of RBA76 and RBF1

TABLE F.1: COEFFICIENTS OF VARIATION (%)* FOR EQUATIONS OF RBF1(M)
Sector/Number of equations	EST5971				EST7178
Sector/Number of equations	<1	1–5	5–10	>10	<1	1–5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	3 (30%)	5 (50%)	2 (20%)	–	2 (20%)	7 (70%)	1 (70%)	–
2. Supply (3)	–	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)	–	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)
3. Wages and Prices (14)	10 (72%)	2 (14%)	1 (7%)	1 (7%)	6 (43%)	6 (43%)	–	2 (14%)
4. Employment (3)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)	–	1 (33%)	–	1 (33%)	1 (33%)
5. Balance of Payments (1)	–	–	–	1 (100%)	–	–	–	1 (100%)
6. Financial (10)		6 (60%)	2 (20%)	2 (20%)	–	6 (60%)	2 (20%)	2 (20%)
7. Taxes (7)	–	5 (71%)	2 (29%)	–	–	4 (57%)	1 (14%)	2 (29%)
8. Incomes (7)	2 (29%)	3 (42%)	2 (29%)	–	1 (14%)	4 (58%)	1 (14%)	1 (14%)
Total (55)	16 (29%)	22 (40%)	11 (20%)	6 (11%)	10 (18%)	28 (51%)	6 (11%)	11 (20%)
* Variables are classified into one of four ranges. These coefficient of variation ranges are somewhat arbitrarily chosen as there is little guidance from literature about what is an “acceptable” error in this statistic.

TABLE F.2 ANALYSIS OF COEFFICIENTS OF VARIATION FOR EQUATIONS OF RBF1(M)
Sector/Number of equations	EST5971				EST7178
Sector/Number of equations	<1	1–5	5–10	>10	<1	1–5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	cf	chd	cmv		cf	chd	ie
	cndo	id	ic		cndo	cmv
	cr	DCT				cr
		ds				id
		ie				DCT
						ds
						ic
2. Supply (3)		mgo		iinf		mgo		iinf
				ISVANF				ISVANF
3. Wages and Prices (14)	Wma	Pcmv	Pchf	Pewa	Pchd	Wma		Pewa
	Pchd	Pcg			Pcndo	Pcmv		Pchf
	Pcndo				Pcr	Pic
	Pcr				Pid	Pie
	Pid				Pkinf	Pcg
	Pic				Pepi	Pig
	Pie
	Pig
	Pkinf
	Pcpi
4. Employment	NWCNF		NVAC		NWCNF		NU	NVAC
			NU
5. Balance of Payments (1)				BKP				BKP
6. Financial (10)		DFT	NCS	LMAT		DFT	NCS	LMAT
		DPS	RGS	LMAS		DPS	RGS	LMAS
		GSP				GSP
		NCP				NCP
		ATT				ATT
		NCT				NCT
7. Taxes (7)		TXC	TXP			TXP	TXC	TYPPNP
		TXS	TYCP			TXS		TYCP
		TXE				TXE
		TYPPG				TYPPG
		TYPPNP
8. Incomes (7)	YWSSNF	YDR	YDIV		YWSSNF	YDR	YWSSF	YDIV
	YGOSUNF	YUNF	YWSSF			YUNF
		YGSOD				YGSOD
						YGOSUNF

TABLE F.3 EQUATIONS WHOSE COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION MORE THAN DOUBLES OR MORE THAN HALVES FOR EST5971 COMPARED TO EST7178
Sector/Number of Equations	Variables whose c.o.v. more than doubles		Variables whose c.o.v. more than halves
1. Expenditure (10)	–			–
2. Supply (3)	iinf	1 (33%)	ISVANF		1 (33%)
3. Wages and Prices (14)	Pic Pkinf Pchf	3 (21%)		–
4. Productivity and employment (3)	NWCNF	1 (33%)		–
5. Balance of payments (1)	BKP	1 (100%)		–
6. Financial (10)	GSP	1 (10%)		–
7. Taxes (7)	TXE TYPPNP	3 (43%)		–
8. Incomes (7)	YGOSUNF	1 (14%)		–
Total (55)		11 (20%)			1 (2%)

TABLE F.4: ERRORS FROM WITHIN SAMPLE STATIC AND DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS FOR EST5971 (66/67 PRICES)
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE ERRORS*
Sector/Number of Equations	Static			Dynamic
Sector/Number of Equations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	10 (100%)	–	–	8 (80%)	2 (20%)	–
2. Supply (3)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)
3. Wages and Prices (13)	12 (92%)	–	1 (8%)	12 (92%)	–	1 (8%)
4. Employment (3)	1 (33%)	2 (67%)	–	1 (33%)	1 (33%)	1 (33%)
5. Balance of Payments(1)	–	–	1 (100%)	–	–	1 (100%)
6. Financial (10)	7 (70%)	2 (20%)	3 (30%)	6 (60%)	2 (20%)	2 (20%)
7. Taxes (8)	6 (75%)	2 (25%)	–	5 (63%)	3 (37%)	–
8. Incomes (7)	6 (86%)	1 (14%)	–	6 (86%)	1 (14%)	–
Total (55)	43 (78%)	5 (9%)	7 (13%)	39 (71%)	9 (16%)	7 (13%)
* Like the ranges chosen for the COV statistics the RMSPE ranges chosen are somewhat arbitrary.

TABLE F.5 ANALYSIS OF ERRORS FROM WITHIN SAMPLE STATIC AND DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS FOR EST5971 (66/67 PRICES) ESTIMATES
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE ERRORS
Sector/Number of equations	Static			Dynamic
Sector/Number of equations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	cf			cf
	chd				chd
	cmy			cmy
	cndo			cndo
	cr			cr
	id			id
	DCT			DCT
	ds			ds
	ie				ic
	ie			ie
2. Supply (3)			iinf			iinf
	mgo			mgo
			ISVANF			ISVANF
3. Wages & Prices (13)	WMA			WMA
	Pchd			Pchd
	Pcmv			Pcmv
	Pcndo			Pcndo
	Pcr			Pcr
	Pid			Pid
	Pic			Pic
	Pie			Pie
	Pcg			Pcg
	Pig			Pig
	Pkinf			Pkinf
			PEWA			PEWA
	Pcpi			Pcpi
4. Employment (3)	NWCNF			NWCNF
		NVAC				NVAC
		NU			NU
5. Balance of Payments (1)			BKP			BKP
6. Financial (10)	DFT			DFT
	DPS			DPS
	GSP			GSP
	NCP			NCP
	ATT			ATT
			LMA*		LMA*
	NCT			NCT
			NCS			NCS
	RGS					RGS
7. Taxes (8)	TXC				TXC
		TXP			TXP
		TXS			TXS
	TXE			TXE
	TYPL			TYPL
	TYPPNP			TYPPNP
	TYCP			TYCP
	TYPPG			TYPPG
8. Incomes	YWSSNF			YWSSNF
	YDR			YDR
	YUNF			YUNF
	YDIV			YDIV
	YGOSD			YGOSD
	YGOSUNF			YGOSUNF
		YWSSF			YWSSF
LMA*= LMAT + LMAS

TABLE F.6: EQUATIONS WHOSE RMSPE MORE THAN DOUBLES BETWEEN WITHIN SAMPLE STATIC AND DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS
EST5971 (66/67 PRICES)
Sector/Number of Equations	Variables
1. Expenditure (10)	chd cndo DCT	3 (30%)
2. Supply (3)		–
3. Wages and Prices (13)	WMA
	Pcmv
	Pcndo
	Pcr
	Pid
	Pie
	Pcg
	Pkinf	9 (90%)
	Pcpi
4. Productivity and Employment (3)		–
5. Balance of Payments (1)		–
6. Financial (10)	NCP RGS	2 (20%)
7. Taxes (8)	TYPL	1 (13%)
8. Incomes (7)	YDR YGOSD	2 (29%)
Total		17 (31%)

TABLE F.7: ERRORS FROM WITHIN AND OUT-OF-SAMPLE DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS FOR EST5971 (66/67 PRICES)
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE ERRORS
Sector/Number of equations	Within Sample			Out of sample*
Sector/Number of equations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	8 (80%)	2 (20%)	–	9 (90%)	1 (10%)	–
2. Supply (3)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)
3. Wages & Prices (13)	12 (92%)	–	1 (8%)	12 (92%)	–	1 (8%)
4. Employment (3)	1 (33%)	1 (33%)	1 (33%)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)
5. Balance of Payments (1)	–	–	1 (100%)	–	–	1 (100%)
6. Financial (10)	6 (60%)	2 (20%)	2 (20%)	6 (60%)	1 (10%)	3 (30%)
7. Taxes (8)	5 (63%)	3 (37%)	–	6 (75%)	–	2 (25%)
8. Incomes (7)	6 (86%)	1 (14%)	–	6 (86%)	1 (14%)	–
Total (55)	39 (71%)	9 (16%)	7 (13%)	44 (75%)	3 (5%)	11 (20%)
* Out of Sample – 7 quarter horizon, 1971(3)–1973(1).

TABLE F.8: ANALYSIS OF ERRORS FROM WITHIN AND OUT OF SAMPLE DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS FOR EST5971 (1966/1967 PRICES)
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE ERRORS
Sector/Number of equations	Within Sample			Out of sample
Sector/Number of equations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	cf			cf
		chd		chd
	cmv			cmv
	cndo			cndo
	cr			cr
	id			id
	DCT			DCT
	DS			DS
		ic			ic
	ic			ic
2. Supply (3)			iinf			iinf
	mgo			mgo
			ISVANF			ISVANF
3. Wages & Prices (13)	WMA			WMA
	Pchd			Pchd
	Pcmv			Pcmv
	Pcndo			Pcndo
	Pcr			Pcr
	Pid			Pid
	Pic			Pic
	Pie			Pie
	Pcg			Pcg
	Pig			Pig
	Pkinf			Pkinf
			PEWA			PEWA
	Pcpi			Pcpi
4. Employment (3)	NWCNF			NWCNF
			NVAC			NVAC
		NU				NU
5. Balance of Payments (1)			BKP			BKP
6. Financial (10)	DFT			DFT
	DPS			DPS
	GSP			GSP
	NCP			NCP
	ATT			ATT
		LMA*				LMA*
	NCT			NCT
			NCS			NCS
			RGS		RGS
7. Taxes (8)		TXC		TXC
		TXP				TXP
		TXS		TXS
	TXE			TXE
	TYPL			TYPL
	TYPPNP					TYPPNP
	TYCP			TYCP
	TYPPG			TYPPG
8. Incomes (7)	YWSSNF			YWSSNF
	YDR			YDR
	YUNP			YUNF
	YDIV				YDIV
	YGOSD			YGOSD
	YGOSUNF			YGOSUNF
		YWSSF		YWSSF
LMA* = LMAT + LMAS

TABLE F.9: EQUATIONS WHOSE RMSPE MORE THAN DOUBLES BETWEEN WITHIN AND OUT OF SAMPLE DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS
EST5971 (66/67 PRICES)
Sector/Number of equations	Variables Out of Sample
1. Expenditure (10)	–
2. Supply (3)	iinf	1 (33%)
3. Wages & Prices (13)	Pig	1 (8%)
4. Employment (3)	NWCNF	1 (33%)
5. Balance of Payments (1)
6. Financial (10)	DFT LMA*	3 (30%)
7. Taxes (8)	TYPPNP	1 (13%)
8. Incomes (7)	YUNF YGOSUNF	2 (29%)
Total (55)		9 (16%)
LMA* = LMAT + LMAS

TABLE F.10: ERRORS FROM WITHIN SAMPLE STATIC SIMULATIONS FOH THREE SETS OF ESTIMATES EST5971, EST5973, EST5975
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE ERRORS
Sector/Number of Equations	EST5971			EST5973			EST5975
Sector/Number of Equations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	10 (100%)	–	–	10 (100%)	–	–	9 (90%)	1 (10%)	–
2. Supply (3)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)
3. Wages & Prices (13)	12 (92%)	–	1 (8%)	12 (92%)	–	1 (8%)	12 (92%)	–	1 (8%)
4. Employment (3)	1 (33%)	2 (67%)	–	1 (33%)	1 (33%)	1 (33%)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)
5. Balance of Payments (1)	–	–	1 (100%)	–	–	1 (100%)	–	–	1 (100%)
6. Financial (10)	7 (70%)	–	3 (30%)	6 (60%)	3 (30%)	1 (10%)	5 (50%)	1 (10%)	4 (40%)
7. Taxes (8)	6 (75%)	2 (25%)	–	7 (88%)	1 (12%)	–	4 (50%)	4 (50%)	–
8. Incomes (7)	6 (86%)	1 (14%)	–	5 (71%)	2 (29%)	–	3 (43%)	3 (43%)	1 (14%)
Total (55)	43 (78%)	5 (9%)	7 (13%)	42 (76%)	7 (13%)	6 (11%)	35 (64%)	9 (16%)	11 (20%)

TABLE F.11: ANALYSIS OF ERRORS FROM WITHIN SAMPLE STATIC SIMULATIONS FOR THREE SETS OF ESTIMATES: EST5971, EST5973, EST5975
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE ERRORS
Sector/Number of equations	EST5971			EST5973			EST5975
Sector/Number of equations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	cf			cf			cf
	chd			chd			chd
	cmv			cmv			cmv
	cndo			cndo			cndo
	cr			cr			cr
	id			id			id
	DCT			DCT			DCT
	ds			ds				ds
	ic			ic			ic
	ie			ie			ie
2. Supply (3)			iinf			iinf			iinf
	mgo			mgo			mgo
			ISVANF			ISVANF			ISVANF
3. Wages & Prices (13)	WMA			WMA			WMA
	Pchd			Pchd			Pchd
	Pcmv			Pcmv			Pcmv
	Pcndo			Pcndo			Pcndo
	Per			Per			Per
	Pid			Pid			Pid
	Pic			Pic			Pic
	Pie			Pie			Pie
	Pcg			Pcg			Pcg
	Pig			Pig			Pig
	Pklnf			Pklnf			Pklnf
			PEWA			PEWA			PEWA
	Pcpi			Pcpi			Pcpi
4. Employment(3)	NWCNF			NWCNF			NWCNF
		NVAC				NVAC			NVAC
		NU			NU				NU
5. Balance of Payments (1)			BKP			BKP			BKP
6. Financial (10)	DFT			DFT				DFT
	DPS			DPS			DPS
	GSP			GSP			GSP
	NCP			NCP			NCP
	ATT			ATT			ATT
			LMA*		LMA*				LMA*
	NCT			NCT			NCT
			NCS			NCS			NCS
	RGS				RGS				RGS
7. Taxes (8)	TXC			TXC				TXC
		TXS		TXS				TXS
	TXE			TXE			TXE
	TYPL				TYPPNP		TYPPNP
	TYPPNP			TYCP				TYCP
	TYCP			TYPPG			TYPPG
	TYPPG			TYPL			TYPL
8. Incomes	YWSSNF			YWSSNF			YWSSNF
	YDR			YDR			YDR
	YUNF			YUNF				YUNF
	YDIV				YDIV			YDIV
	YGOSD			YGOSD			YGOSD
	YGOSUNI			YGOSUNF				YGOSUNF
		YWSSF			YWSSF				YWSSF
LMA* = LMAT + LMAS

TABLE F.12: EQUATIONS WHOSE RMSPE FROM WITHIN SAMPLE STATIC SIMULATION TRENDS UPWARD OVER THREE ESTIMATION PERIODS EST5971, EST5973, EST5975
Sector/Number of equations	Variable
1. Expenditure (10)	chd cmv id	3 (30%)
2. Supply (3)	mgo	1 (33%)
3. Wages & Prices (13)	WMA Pchd Pcmv pig Pkinf	5 (38%)
4. Employment (3)	NWCNF NVAC NU	3 (100%)
5. Balance of Payments (1)	BKP DFT	1 (100%)
6. Financial (10)	DPS RGS	3 (30%)
7. Taxes (8)	TXC TYPPG	2 (25%)
8. Incomes (7)	YDR YDIV YWSSF	3 (43%)
Total (55)		21 (38%)

TABLE F.13: ERRORS FROM WITHIN SAMPLE DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS FOR THREE SETS OF ESTIMATES: EST5971, EST5973, EST5975
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE ERRORS
Sector/Number of equations	EST5971			EST5973			EST5975
Sector/Number of equations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	8 (80%)	2 (20%)	–	7 (70%)	2 (20%)	1 (10%)	5 (50%)	3 (30%)	2 (20%)
2. Supply (3)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)	–	1 (33%)	2 (67%)	–	1 (33%)	2 (67%)
3. Wages & Prices (13)	12 (92%)	–	1 (8%) '	12 (92%)	–	1 (8%)	12 (92%)	–	1 (8%)
4. Employment (3)	1 (33%)	1 (33%)	1 (33%)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)
5. Balance of Payments (1)	–	–	1 (100%)	–	–	1 (100%)	–	–	1 (100%)
6. Financial (10)	6 (60%)	2 (20%)	2 (20%)	4 (40%)	1 (10%)	5 (50%)	3 (30%)	3 (30%)	4 (40%)
7. Taxes (8)	5 (63%)	3 (37%)	–	6 (75%)	–	(25%)	(63%)	(37%)	–
8. Incomes (7)	6 (86%)	1 (14%)	–	6 (86%)	1 (14%)	–	4 (57%)	2 (29%)	1 (15%)
Total (55)	39 (71%)	9 (16%)	7 (13%)	36 (65%)	5 (9%)	14 (26%)	30 (55%)	12 (22%)	13 (23%)

TABLE F.14: ANALYSIS OF ERRORS FROM WITHIN SAMPLE DYNAMIC SIMULATORS FOR THREE SETS OF ESTIMATES: EST5971, BST5973, EST5975
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE ERRORS
Sector/Number of quations	EST5971			EST5973			ESTS97S
Sector/Number of quations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	cf			cf			cf
		chd			chd		chd
	cmv				cmv			cmv
	cndo			cndo			cndo
	cr			cr			cr
	id			id					id
	DCT			DCT				DCT
	ds			ds					ds
		ic				ic		ic
	ie			ie			ie
2. Supply (3)			iinf			iinf			iinf
	mgo				mgo			mgo
			ISVANF			ISVANF			ISVANF
3. Wages & Prices (13)	WMA			WMA			WMA
	Pchd			Pchd			Pchd
	Pcmv			Pcmv			Pcmv
	Pcndo			Pcndo			Pcndo
	Pcr			Pcr			Pcr
	Pid			Pid
	Pic			Pic			Pic
	Pie			Pie			Pie
	Pcg			Pcg			Pcg
	Pig			Pig			Pig
	Pkinf			Pkinf			Pkinf
			PEWA			PEWA			PEWA
	Pcpi			Pcpi			Pcpi
4. Employment (3)	NWCNF			NWCNF			NWCNF
			NVAC			NVAC			NVAC
5. Balance of Payments (1)		NU				NU			NU
			BKP			BKP			BKP
6. Financial (10)	DFT			DFT				DFT
	DPS			DPS				DPS
	GSP			GSP			GSP
	NCP			NCP			NCP
	ATT					ATT	ATT
		LMA*				LMA*			LMA*
	NCT				NCT			NCT
			NCS			NCS			NCS
			RGS			RGS			RGS
7. Taxes (8)		TXC		TXC				TXC
		TXP		TXP				TXP
		TXS		TXS			TXS
	TXE			TXE			TXE
	TYPL			TYPL			TYPL
	TYPPNP					TYPPNP	TYPPNP
	TYCP					TYCP	TYCP
	TYPPG			TYPPG				TYPPG
8. Incomes (7)	YWSSNF			YWSSNF			YWSSNF
	YDR			YDR			YDR
	YUNF			YUNF				YUNF
	YDIV				YDIV			YDIV
	YGOSD			YGOSD			YGOSD
	YGOSUNF			YGOSUNF			YGOSUNF
		YWSSF		YWSSF					YWSSF
LMA* = LMAT + LMAS

TABLE F.15: EQUATIONS WHOSE RMSPE FROM WITHIN SAMPLE DYNAMIC SIMULATION TRENDS UPWARD OVER THREE ESTIMATION PERIODS: EST5971, EST5973, EST5975
Sector/Number of equations	Variable
1. Expenditure	id	1 (10%)
2. Supply (3)	mgo	1 (33%)
3. Wages & Prices (13)	Pig	1 (8%)
4. Employment (3)	NWCNF NVAC NU	3 (100%)
5. Balance of Payments (1)	BKP	1 (100%)
6. Financial (10)	DFT DPS GSP NCT NCS	5 (50%)
7. Taxes (8)	TYPPG	1 (13%)
8. Incomes (7)	YDIV YGOSUNF	2 (29%)
Total (55)		15 (27%)

TABLE F.16: ERRORS FROM OUT OF SAMPLE DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS FOR THREE SETS OF ESTIMATES EST5971, EST5975, EST5975
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE ERRORS
Sector/Number of equations	EST5971			EST5973*			ESTW1*
Sector/Number of equations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	9 (90%)	1 (10%)	–	3 (30%)	2 (20%)	5 (50%)	4 (40%)	2 (20%)	4 (40%)
2. Supply (3)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)	–	–	3 (100%)	–	–	3 (100%)
3. Wages and Prices (13)	12 (42%)	–	1 (80%)	3 (58%)	7 (54%)	1 (8%)	10 (77%)	2 (15%)	1 (8%)
4. Employment (3)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)
5. Balance of Payments (1)	–	–	1 (100%)	–	–	1 (100%)	–	–	1 (100%)
6. Financial (10)	6 (60%)	1 (10%)	3 (30%)	1 (10%)	1 (10%)	8 (80%)	1 (10%)	6 (60%)	3 (30%)
7. Taxes (8)	6 (75%)	–	2 (25%)	3 (37%)	2 (25%)	3 (37%)	3 (37%)	2 (25%)	3 (37%)
8. Incomes (7)	6 (86%)	1 (14%)	–	2 (29%)	2 (29%)	3 (43%)	3 (43%)	1 (14%)	3 (43%)
Total (55)	41 (75%)	3 (5%)	11 (20%)	15 (27%)	14 (25%)	26 (47%)	22 (40%)	13 (24%)	20 (36%)
7 quarter horizon * 2 year horizon

TABLE F.17: ANLAYSIS OF ERRORS FROM OUT OF SAMPLE DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS FOR THREE SETS OF ESTIMATES: EST5971, EST5973, EST5975
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE ERRORS
Sector/Number of Equations	EST5971			EST5973			EST5975
Sector/Number of Equations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	cf			cf			cf
	chd					chd		chd
	cmv				cmv				cmv
	cndo			cndo			cndo
	cr			cr			cr
	id					id			id
	DCT					DCT	DCT
	ds					ds			ds
		ic				ic		ic
	ie				ie				ie
2. Supply (3)			iinf			iinf			iinf
	mgo					mgo			mgo
			ISVANF			ISVNAF			ISVAffl
3. Wages & Prices (13)	WMA				WMA		WMA
	Pchd				Pchd		Pchd
	Pcmv			Pemv				Pemv
	Pcndo				Pcndo		Pcndo
	Per			Per				Per
	Pid				Pid		Pid
	Pic				Pic		Pic
	Pie			Pie			Pie
	Peg				Peg		Peg
	Pig				Pig		Pig
	Pkinf			Pkinf			Pkinf
			PEWA			PEWA			PEWA
	Pcpi			Pcpi			Pcpi
4. Employment (3)	NWCHF			NWCNF			NWCNF
			NVAC			NVAC			NVAC
			NU			NU			NU
5. Balance of Payments (1)			BKP			BKP			BKP
6. Financial (10)	DFT					DFT		DFT
	DPS				DPS			DPS
	GSP					GSP			GSP
	NCP			NCP			NCP
	ATT					ATT		ATT
			LMA*			LMA*			LMA*
	NCT					NCT		NCT
			NCS			NCS		NCS
		RGS				RGS		RGS
7. Taxes (8)	TXC					TXC			TXC
			TXP	TXP			TXP
	TXS TXE			TXE	TXS		TXE	TXS
	TYPL					TYPL	TYPL
			TYPPNP			TYPPNP			TYPPNI
	TYCP			TYCP					TYCP
	TYPPG				TYPPG			TYPPG
8. Incomes (7)	YWSSNI			YWSSNI			YWSSNF
	YDR				YDR				YDR
	YUNF					YUNF		YUNF
		YDIV				YDIV			YDIV
	YGOSD			YGOSD			YGOSD
	YGOSUNF				YGOSUN		YGOSUN
	YVSSF					YWSSF			YWSSF
LMA* = LMAT + LMAS

TABLE F.18: EQUATIONS WHOSE RMSPE FROM OUT OF SAMPLE DYNAMIC SIMULATION TRENDS UPWARD OVER THREE ESTIMATION PERIODS: EST5971, EST5973, EST5975
Sector/Number of equations	Variable
1. Expenditure (10)	cf cmv cndo ie	4 (40%)
2. Supply (3)	mgo	1 (33%)
3. Wages & Prices (13)	Pcmv Pcr Pkinf	3 (23%)
4. Employment (3)	NWCNF	1 (33%)
5. Balance of Payments (1)	BKP	1 (100%)
6. Financial (10)	–
7. Taxes (8)	TXC TYCP	2 (25%)
8. Incomes (7)	YDR	1 (14%)
Total (55)		13 (24%)

TABLE F.19 ERRORS FROM WITHIN SAMPLE STATIC AND DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS FOR EST7178 (74/75) PRICES
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE ERRORS
Sector/Number of Equations	Static			Dynamic
Sector/Number of Equations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	8 (80%)	2 (20%)	–	7 (70%)	2 (20%)	1 (10%)
2. Supply (3)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)	–	1 (33%)	2 (67%)
3. Wages & Prices (13)	12 (92%)	–	1 (8%)	12 (92%)	–	1 (8%)
4. Employment (3)	2 (67%)	–	1 (33%)	1 (33%)	1 (33%)	1 (34%)
5. Balance of Payments (1)	–	–	1 (100%)	–	–	1 (100%)
6. Financial (15)	7 (47%)	2 (13%)	6 (40%)	4 (27%)	5 (33%)	6 (40%)
7. Taxes (7)	4 (57%)	1 (14%)	2 (29%)	4 (57%)	1 (14%)	2 (29%)
8. Incomes (7)	5 (72%)	2 (28%)	–	5 (72%)	2 (28%)	–
Total (59)	39 (66%)	7 (12%)	13 (22%)	33 (56%)	12 (20%)	14 (24%)

TABLE F.20 ANALYSIS OF ERRORS FROM WITHIN SAMPLE STATIC AND DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS FOR EST7178 (74/75 PRICES)
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE ERRORS
Sector/Number of equations	Static			Dynamic
Sector/Number of equations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	cf			cf
	chd			chd
		cmv			cmv
	cndo			cndo
	cr			cr
	id				id
	DCT			DCT
		ds				ds
	ic			ic
	ie			ie
2. Supply (3)	mgo		iinf		mgo	iinf
3. Wages and Prices (13)	WMA		ISVANF	WMA		ISVANF
	Pchd			Pchd
	Pcmv			Pcmv
	Pcndo			Pcndo
	Per			Per
	Pid			Pid
	Pic			Pic
	Pie			Pie
	Peg			Peg
	Pig			Pig
	Pkinf			Pkinf
			PEWA			PEWA
	Pcpi			Pcpi
4. Employment (3)	NWCNF			NWCNF
			NVAC			NVAC
	NU				NU
S. Balance of Payments(1)			BKP			BKP
6. Financial (15)		DFT			DFT
			DCDT			DCDT
	DPS			DPS
	DPB				DPB
	GSP				GSP
	NCP			NCP
	ATT				ATT
			LMA*			LMA*
	NCT			NCT
			RCD			RCD
			NCS			NCS
	APB			APB
			LMAP			LMAP
		RGS			RGS
7. Taxes (7)		TXC			TXC
	TXP			TXP
	TXS			TXS
	TXE			TXE
			TYPPNP			TYPPNP
			TYCP			TYCP
	TYPPG			TYPPG
8. Incomes (7)	YWSSNF			YWSSNF
	YDR			YDR
	YUNF			YUNF
		YDIV			YDIV
	YGOSD			YGOSD
	YGOSUNF			YGOSUNF
		YWSSF			YWSSF

TABLE F.21 EQUATIONS WHOSE RMSPE MORE THAN DOUBLES BETWEEN WITHIN SAMPLE STATIC AND DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS
EST7178 (74/75 PRICES)
Sector/Number of Equations	Variables
1. Expenditure (10)	id ds	2 (20%)
2. Supply (3)	–
3. Wages & Prices (13)	Pcr Pid Pcg Pig Pkinf	6 (46%)
4. Employment (3)	NVAC	1 (33%)
5. Balance of Payments (1)	–
6. Financial (15)	DCDT DPS DPB ATT NCS APB LMAP	7 (47%)
7. Taxes (7)	–
8. Incomes (7)	–
Total (59)		16 (27%)

TABLE F.22 ERRORS IN WITHIN SAMPLE STATIC AND DYNAMIC SIMULATION – FOR EST7676 (74/75 PRICES)
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE ERRORS
Sector/Number of equations	Static			Dynamic
Sector/Number of equations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	10 (100%)	–	–	7 (70%)	–	3 (30%)
2. Supply (5)	1 (33*)	–	2 (67%)	–	1 (33%)	2 (67%)
3. Wages and prices (13)	12 (19%)	–	1 (8%)	11 (84%)	1 (8%)	1 (8%)
4. Employment (3)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)	1 (33%)	–	2 (67%)
5. Balance of Payments (1)	–	–	1 (100%)	–	–	1 (100%)
6. Financial (15)	6 (40%)	4 (27%)	5 (33%)	4 (27%)	4 (27%)	7 (46%)
7. Taxes (7)	4 (57%)	1 (14%)	2 (29%)	4 (57%)	–	3 (43%)
8. Incomes (7)	5 (72%)	1 (14%)	1 (14%)	4 (57%)	2 (29%)	1 (14%)
Total (59)	39 (66%)	6 (10%)	14 (24%)	31 (53%)	8 (14%)	20 (33%)

TABLE F.23 ANALYSIS OF RMSPE FOR WITHIN SAMPLE STATIC AND DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS FOR EST6676 (74/75 PRICES)
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE
Sectors/Number of equations	Static			Dynamic
Sectors/Number of equations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	cf			cf
	chd			chd
	cmv			cmv
	cndo			cndo
	cr			cr
	id					id
	DCT					DCT
	ds					ds
	ic			ic
	ie			ie
2. Supply (3)			iinf			iinf
	mgo				mgo
			ISVANF			ISVANF
3. Wages and prices (13)	WMA			WMA
	Pchd			Pchd
	Pcmv			Pcmv
	Pcndo			Pcndo
	Per			Per
	Pid			Pid
	Pic			Pic
	Pie			Pie
	Peg				Peg
	Pig			Pig
	Pkinf			Pkinf
			PEWA			PEWA
	Pcpi			Pcpi
4. Employment (3)	NWCNF		NVAC	NWCNF		NVAC
			NV			NV
5. Balance of Payments (1)			BKP			BKP
6. Financial (15)		DFT			DFT
			DCDT			DCDT
	DPS			DPS
	DPB			DPB
		GSP			GSP
	NCP			NCP
	ATT				ATT
			LMA*			LMA*
	NCT			NCT
			RCD			RCD
		NCS				NCS
	APB			APB
			LMAP			LMAP
		RGS				RGS
7. Taxes (7)		TXC				TXC
	TXP			TXP
	TXS			TXS
	TXE			TXE
			TYPPNP			TYPPNP
			TYCP			TYCP
	TYPPG			TYPPG
	YWSSNF			YWSSNF
	YDR			YDR
	YUNF			YUNF
			YDIV			YDIV
	YGOSD			YGOSD
	YGOSUNF				YGOSUNF
		YWSSF			YWSSF
LMA* = LMAT + LMAS

TABLE F.24: EQUATIONS WHOSE RMSPE MORE THAN DOUBLES BETWEEN WITHIN STATIC AND WITHIN DYNAMIC SIMULATION – EST6676 (74/75 PRICES)
Sector/Number of equations	Variable
1. Expenditure (10)	chd cr id DCT ds	5 (50%)
2. Supply (3)	–
3. Wages and prices (13)	WMA Pchd Pcr Pid Pcg Pkinf	6 (46%)
4. Employment (3)	NWCNF NVAC	2 (67%)
5. Balance of Payments (1)	–	(0%)
6. Financial (15)	ATT NCS APB LMAP	4 (27%)
7. Taxes (7)	–	–
8. Incomes (7)	–	–
Total (59)		17 (29%)

TABLE F.25 ERRORS IN WITHIN AND OUT OF SAMPLE DYNAMIC SIMULATION – F0R EST6676 (74/75 PRICES)
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE ERRORS
Sector/Number of equations	Within sample			Out of sample*
Sector/Number of equations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	7 (70%)		3 (30%)	3 (30%)	4 (40%)	3 (30%)
2. Supply (3)	–	1 (33%)	2 (67%)	–	1 (33%)	2 (67%)
3. Wages and prices (13)	11 (84%)	1 (8%)	1 (8%)	11 (84%)	1 (8%)	1 (8%)
4. Employment (3)	1 (335)	–	2 (67%)	1 (33%)	1 (33%)	1 (33%)
5. Balance of Payments (1)	–	–	1 (100%)	–	–	1 (100%)
6. Financial (15)	4 (27%)	4 (27%)	7 (46%)	6 (40%)	1 (7%)	8 (53%)
7. Taxes (7)	4 (57%)	–	3 (43%)	2 (29%)	2 (29%)	3 (42%)
8. Incomes (7)	4 (57%)	2 (29%)	1 (14%)	4 (57%)	1 (14%)	2 (29%)
Total (59)	31 (53%)	8 (14%)	20 (33%)	27 (46%)	11 (19%)	21 (35%)
* 2 year horizon

TABLE F.26 ANALYSIS OF RMSPE FOR WITHIN AND OUT-OF-SAMPLE DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS FOR EST6676 (1974/75 PRICES)
ROOT MEAN SQUARE PERCENTAGE ERRORS
Sector/Number of equations	Within sample			Out-of-Sample
Sector/Number of equations	<5	5–10	>10	<5	5–10	>10
1. Expenditure (10)	cf			cf
	chd				chd
	cmv				cmv
	cndo			cndo
	cr			cr
			id
			DCT		DCT
			ds			ds
	ic				ic
	ie					ie
2. Supply			iinf			iinf
		mgb			mgo
			ISVANF			ISVANF
3. Wages & Prices (13)	WMA			WMA
	Pchd			Pchd
	Pcmv			Pcmv
	Pcndo			Pcndo
	Per			Per
	Pid				Pid
	Pic			Pic
	Pie			Pie
		Peg		Peg
	Pig			Pig
	Pkinf			Pkinf
			PEWA			PEWA
	Pcpi			Pcpi
4. Employment (3)	NWCNF			NWCNF
			NVAC			NVAC
			NU		NU
5. Balance of Payments (1)			BKP			BKP

6. Financial (15)		DFT	DCDT	DFT		DCDT
	DPS			DPS
	DPS			DPS
		GSP			GSP
	NCP			NCP
		ATT	LMA*	ATT		IMA*
		NCT				NCT
			RCD			RCD
			NCS			NCS
	APB			APB
			LMAP			IMAP
			RGS			RGS
7. Taxes (7)			TXC			TXC
	TXP			TXP
	TXS				TXS
	TXE				TXE
			TYPPNP			TYPPNP
			TYCP			TYCP
	TYPPG			TYPPG
8. Incomes (7)	YWSSNF			YWSSNF
	YDR				YDR
	YUNF			YUNF
	YGOSD			YGOSD
			YDIV			YDIV
		YGOSUNF		YGOSUNF
		YWSSF				YWSSF
LMA*= LMAT + LMAS

TABLE F.27: EQUATIONS WHOSE RMSPE MORE THAN DOUBLES FOR WITHIN COMPARED TO OUT-OF-SAMPLE DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS – FOR EST6676 (74/75 PRICES)
Sector/Number of equations	Variables
1. Expenditure (10)	chd cr ic ie	4 (40%)
2. Supply	–
3. Wages and Prices (13)	Pid Pcpi	2 (15%)
4. Employment (3)	–
5. Balance of Payments (1)	–
6. Financial (15)	DCDT NCS	2 (13%)
7. Taxes (7)	–
8. Incomes (7)	YVSSF	1 (14%)
Total (59)		9 (15%)

RDP 7904: Some Aspects of RBA76 and RBF1 Appendix F