RDP 2026-02: Shifts in Australian Price-setting Behaviour around Large Shocks Appendix E: Affect of Shifts in Price Rigidity on Supply-demand Decomposition

DSGE models can be used to estimate the relative contributions of supply and demand factors to inflationary shocks. This distinction is important because the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the nature of the underlying shocks. Building on the approach in Beckers et al (2023), we tested whether different assumptions about price rigidity influence the model's decomposition of deviations in trimmed mean inflation from its steady-state value (assumed to be 2.5 per cent, the midpoint of the RBA's target band).

Figure E1 presents the results. While the decomposition varies slightly across specifications, the differences are minor in magnitude. This suggests that the model's interpretation of the balance between supply and demand shocks is not materially affected by reasonable changes in the assumed degree of price rigidity.

Figure E1: Inflation Decomposition
Trimmed mean, year-ended, deviation from 2.5 per cent
Figure E1: Inflation Decomposition - A three-panel time series graph showing the decomposition of ABS trimmed mean inflation into supply, demand and foreign shocks in each quarter between 2018 and 2024, using the DSGE-based decomposition method from Beckers, Hambur and Williams (2023). The top panel shows the decomposition using baseline rigidity assumptions and the middle and bottom panels show decompositions using the lower price rigidity estimates derived from our empirical data. The results are very similar in each case, showing that assumptions about price rigidity in these models do not have a significant impact on DSGE-based estimates of whether shocks hitting the economy at any given time are more driven by supply or demand factors.

Notes: Supply shocks include mark-up, technology and labour supply shocks, and will capture some overseas shocks. Demand shocks include monetary policy, investment and consumption shocks. Foreign shocks include foreign demand and cost shocks.

Sources: ABS; Authors' calculations.