RDP 2025-06: An AI-powered Tool for Central Bank Business Liaisons: Quantitative Indicators and On-demand Insights from Firms References
August 2025
Ahir H, N Bloom and D Furceri (2020), ‘60 Years of Uncertainty’, Finance & Development, March, pp 58–60.
Albrizio S, PV Simon and A Dizioli (2023), ‘Box 2.1: Firms' Inflation Expectations, Attention, and Monetary Policy Effectiveness’, World Economic Outlook: Navigating Global Divergences, October, IMF, Washington DC, p 65.
Andersson M, P Neves and C Nunes (2023), ‘Box 2: Earnings Calls: New Evidence on Corporate Profits, Investment and Financing Conditions’, ECB Economic Bulletin, 4/2023, pp 56–61.
Baker SR, N Bloom and SJ Davis (2016), ‘Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty’, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), pp 1593–1636.
Blei DM (2012), ‘Probabilistic Topic Models’, Communications of the ACM, 55(4), pp 77–84.
Correa R, J di Giovanni, LS Goldberg and C Minoiu (2023), ‘Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending’, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No 1076, rev February 2025.
Davison J (2020), ‘Zero-shot Learning in Modern NLP’, Joe Davison Blog, 29 May, accessed 13 February 2025. Available at <https://joeddav.github.io/blog/2020/05/29/ZSL.html>.
Dwyer J, K McLoughlin and A Walker (2022), ‘The Reserve Bank's Liaison Program Turns 21’, RBA Bulletin, September.
Filippou I, C Garciga, J Mitchell and MT Nguyen (2024), ‘Regional Economic Sentiment: Constructing Quantitative Estimates from the Beige Book and Testing Their Ability to Forecast Recessions’, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary No 2024-08.
Gascon C and D Werner (2022), ‘Does the Beige Book Reflect U.S. Employment and Inflation Trends?’, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses No 13.
Giannone D, M Lenza and GE Primiceri (2021), ‘Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity’, Econometrica, 89(5), pp 2409–2437.
Gosselin M-A and T Taskin (2023), ‘What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us about the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?’, Bank of Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2023-13.
Hassan TA, S Hollander, A Kalyani, L van Lent, M Schwedeler and A Tahoun (2024), ‘Economic Surveillance using Corporate Text’, NBER Working Paper No 33158.
Hassan TA, S Hollander, L van Lent and A Tahoun (2019), ‘Firm-level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects’, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(4), pp 2135–2202.
Hassan TA, J Schreger, M Schwedeler and A Tahoun (2024), ‘Sources and Transmission of Country Risk’, The Review of Economic Studies, 91(4), pp 2307–2346.
Jamilov R, H Rey and A Tahoun (2023), ‘The Anatomy of Cyber Risk’, Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper No 206.
Jurado K, SC Ludvigson and S Ng (2015), ‘Measuring Uncertainty’, The American Economic Review, 105(3), pp 1177–1216.
Kalyani A, N Bloom, M Carvalho, TA Hassan, J Lerner and A Tahoun (2021), ‘The Diffusion of Disruptive Technologies’, NBER Working Paper No 28999, rev August 2024.
Lagarde C (2023), ‘Policymaking in an Age of Shifts and Breaks’, Luncheon address given at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium on ‘Structural Shifts in the Global Economy’, Jackson Hole, 25–26 August.
Lewis M, Y Liu, N Goyal, M Ghazvininejad, A Mohamed, O Levy, V Stoyanov and L Zettlemoyer (2019), ‘BART: Denoising Sequence-to-sequence Pre-training for Natural Language Generation, Translation, and Comprehension’, Unpublished manuscript, 29 October. Available at <https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1910.13461>.
Liu Y, M Ott, N Goyal, J Du, M Joshi, D Chen, O Levy, M Lewis, L Zettlemoyer and V Stoyanov (2019), ‘RoBERTa: A Robustly Optimized BERT Pretraining Approach’, Unpublished manuscript, 26 July. Available at <https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1907.11692>.
Loughran T and B McDonald (2016), ‘Textual Analysis in Accounting and Finance: A Survey’, Journal of Accounting Research, 54(4), pp 1187–1230.
Mikolov T, K Chen, G Corrado and J Dean (2013), ‘Efficient Estimation of Word Representations in Vector Space’, Unpublished manuscript, 7 September. Available at <https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1301.3781>.
Moore A (2017), ‘Measuring Economic Uncertainty and Its Effects’, Economic Record, 93(303), pp 550–575.
RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) (2022a), ‘Box A: Insights from Liaison’, Statement on Monetary Policy, November.
RBA (2022b), ‘Box C: What Explains Recent Inflation Forecast Errors?’, Statement on Monetary Policy, November.
Sautner Z, L van Lent, G Vilkov and R Zhang (2023), ‘Firm-level Climate Change Exposure’, The Journal of Finance, 78(3), pp 1449–1498.
Windsor C and M Zang (2023), ‘Firms' Price-setting Behaviour: Insights from Earnings Calls’, RBA Research Discussion Paper No 2023-06.
Wolf M (2024), ‘The Dangers Lurking in Our Messy and Unpredictable World’, Financial Times online, 24 January, accessed 8 October 2024. Available at <https://www.ft.com/content/c92f0836-9d8d-49fc-b1c8-44eb478034c2>.
Yang Y, MCS Uy and A Huang (2020), ‘FinBERT: A Pretrained Language Model for Financial Communications’, Unpublished manuscript, 9 July. Available at <https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2006.08097>.