Statement on Monetary Policy May 2026

Contents

• In Brief
• Overview
• 1. Financial Conditions
  • 1.1 Interest rate markets
  • 1.2 Corporate funding markets
  • 1.3 Foreign exchange markets
  • 1.4 Financial conditions in China
  • 1.5 Australian banks and credit markets
• 2. Economic Conditions
  • 2.1 Global economic conditions
  • 2.2 Australian economic conditions prior to the Middle East conflict
  • 2.3 Early indicators of the effect of the Middle East conflict on the Australian economy
• Box A: Insights from Liaison
• Box B: Changes to the Labour Force Survey
• 3. Outlook
  • 3.1 Key conditioning assumptions across the baseline forecast and adverse scenarios
  • 3.2 Key judgements in the baseline forecast
  • 3.3 Baseline global outlook
  • 3.4 Baseline domestic outlook
  • 3.5 Adverse scenarios
  • 3.6 Detailed baseline forecast information
• 4. In Depth – The Impact of Higher Global Energy Prices on the Australian Economy
  • 4.1 Energy commodities play an important role in the Australian economy
  • 4.2 Higher energy prices will have direct and indirect effects on inflation
  • 4.3 Recent energy price increases are likely to weigh on output growth

The cut-off for data used to prepare the Statement on Monetary Policy was 29 April 2026.

Some graphs in this publication were generated using Mathematica.

ISSN 1448–5141