RDP 2021-08: Job Loss, Subjective Expectations and Household Spending Appendix B: Full Regression Output

Gabrielle Penrose and Gianni La Cava

August 2021

Figure B1: Effect of Unemployment on Annual Total Spending
Sensitivity to controls
Figure B1: Effect of Unemployment on Annual Total Spending

Notes: Controls are added cumulatively; lines represent 95 per cent confidence intervals

Sources: Authors' calculations; HILDA Survey Release 19.0

Table B1: Model Output
Unemployment, expectations and spending
Dependent variable Groceries Meals eaten outside the home Total expenditure
Unemployed ( δ ) −0.05***
(0.01)		 −0.44***
(0.05)		 −0.06**
(0.03)
Unemployed * lagged job loss probability ( ϕ ) −0.04
(0.04)		 0.08
(0.15)		 −0.02
(0.07)
Lagged job loss probability ( ρ ) −0.01
(0.01)		 −0.06**
(0.02)		 −0.04**
(0.02)
Square root (number of household members) 0.68***
(0.01)		 0.20***
(0.02)		 0.47***
(0.02)
Year (base = 2006)
2007 0.10***
(0.01)		 0.07***
(0.03)		 0.04***
(0.01)
2008 0.16***
(0.01)		 0.05*
(0.03)		 0.10***
(0.01)
2009 0.17***
(0.01)		 0.07**
(0.03)		 0.07***
(0.01)
2010 0.19***
(0.01)		 0.15***
(0.03)		 0.13***
(0.01)
2011 0.24***
(0.01)		 0.25***
(0.03)
2012 0.24***
(0.01)		 0.28***
(0.03)
2013 0.25***
(0.01)		 0.27***
(0.03)
2014 0.27***
(0.01)		 0.35***
(0.03)
2015 0.28***
(0.01)		 0.38***
(0.03)
2016 0.28***
(0.01)		 0.43***
(0.03)
2017 0.28***
(0.01)		 0.40***
(0.03)
2018 0.27***
(0.01)		 0.42***
(0.03)
2019 0.30***
(0.01)		 0.47***
(0.03)
Constant 3.80***
(0.01)		 3.75***
(0.04)		 9.63***
(0.03)
Fixed effects Yes Yes Yes
R squared (overall) 0.20 0.02 0.07
Observations 96,060 91,461 30,558

Notes: ***, ** and * denote statistical significance at the 1, 5 and 10 per cent levels, respectively; p-values are in parentheses

Sources: Authors' calculations; HILDA Survey Release 19.0