Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2005-07 The Australian Business Cycle: A Coincident Indicator Approach

Contents

• Introduction
• Coincident Indices and Factor Models
• The SW and FHLR Methodologies
• Data and Estimation
• Results
• Applications of the Coincident Indices
• Conclusion
• Appendix A: Composition of Data Panels
• Appendix B: Dating Recessions
• Appendix C: Revisions to GDP and Recession Dating
• References

We thank Chris Caton, Tony Johnston, Christopher Kent, Carl Obst, James Stock, Mark Watson, and seminar participants at the Reserve Bank of Australia and at the annual conference of the Reserve Bank of Australia for their valuable comments and discussion. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Reserve Bank of Australia.