RDP 2019-12: Confidence in Australian Banknotes 2. Data
December 2019
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2.1 Banknotes Survey Data
Since 2010, the Reserve Bank of Australia has commissioned The Market Intelligence Co. (TMIC) to conduct five online surveys with representative samples of the general public. The surveys were conducted in 2010, 2012, 2014, 2017 and 2019. The objectives were to investigate the public's perception, knowledge and awareness of Australian banknotes and banknote security features, and their experience with and attitudes towards counterfeits.
The surveys consisted of both multiple choice and free form response questions. All surveys followed a three-part structure. The first section surveyed participants' cash use habits and attitudes towards Australian banknotes. The second explored their past experiences with and perceptions of counterfeit risk. The third examined their awareness of recent developments regarding banknotes. In all surveys, participants also provided demographic information.
Since most of the questions were repeated, albeit with a different group of participants in each survey year, the surveys form a repeated cross-section dataset.
2.2 Characteristics of Respondents
In total, around 5,300 people aged 16 and above participated in the five surveys, with an average of around 1,000 people per survey. Set quotas for selecting participants by age, sex and state ensured that the sample was broadly representative of the Australian population (Table 1).
| Share (%) | |
|---|---|
| Demographics | |
| Female | 50.2 |
| 16–24 years old | 15.9 |
| 25–44 years old | 35.4 |
| 45 years old and above | 48.7 |
| New South Wales | 32.5 |
| Victoria | 25.1 |
| Queensland | 20.3 |
| Metropolitan | 65.2 |
| Currently employed | 55.8 |
| Annual income < $100,000 | 73.3 |
| Born outside of Australia | 24.2 |
| Experience with banknotes | |
| Received counterfeits in the past | 7.3 |
| Use cash daily as part of job | 20.4 |
| Had banknotes checked by cashier | 34.3 |
| Has had serious problems using banknotes | 12.6 |
| Behavioural questions | |
| Has heard of banknote upgrade plan(a) | 32.0 |
| Knows at least one security feature | 76.1 |
| Believes that they will receive a counterfeit | 36.8 |
| Believes that there is a counterfeiting problem(a) | 31.0 |
| Confident in the system to remove counterfeits from circulation(a) | 65.9 |
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Note: (a) Not all respondents answered these questions; of those who did answer, data show share answering ‘yes’ Sources: Authors' calculations; RBA, online banknote surveys |
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2.3 Confidence in the Security of Australian Banknotes
Since a major objective of the surveys was to understand the Australian public's perception of counterfeit risk, and their confidence in banknotes more generally, participants were also asked the following questions:
- How confident are you with the system currently in place to remove counterfeits from circulation? (Not asked in 2010.)
- Do you think there is a counterfeiting problem in Australia? (Not asked in 2010.)
- How likely do you think it is you will receive a counterfeit banknote in Australia within the next 12 months? (Asked in all survey years.)
The responses to these questions across the surveys suggest that most people are confident in Australian banknotes: on average around 65 per cent of respondents were ‘fairly’ or ‘very’ confident in the current system for removing counterfeits from circulation, and only around 8 per cent were not confident (with the remainder expressing a neutral opinion); almost 70 per cent of respondents did not think that there was a counterfeiting problem in Australia; and more than 60 per cent of respondents believed they would not receive a counterfeit in the next year, while only 12–24 per cent believed they would receive a counterfeit (Figure 1). With the exception of the perceived risk of receiving a counterfeit (which has tended to rise over the past decade), responses were relatively stable across survey years.
Sources: Authors' calculations; RBA, online banknote surveys
2.4 Media Reporting on Counterfeits
To examine the effect of media reporting on counterfeits, we employ a second dataset that includes the number of genuine banknotes mistakenly submitted as counterfeits (on average, around 5 per cent of suspected ‘counterfeits’ are found to be genuine banknotes), the actual number of counterfeits detected, and the number of media reports on counterfeiting as reported by the Isentia media monitoring service (both total reports and unique reported incidents). All variables are measured monthly at the state level, from February 2006 to November 2018. The national level summary statistics are presented in Table 2.
| Mean | Standard deviation | Minimum | Maximum | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No of media reports | 27 | 25 | 0 | 112 |
| No of unique reported incidents | 8 | 7 | 0 | 34 |
| No of detected counterfeits | 1,614 | 1,234 | 0 | 7,160 |
| No of submitted genuine banknotes | 62 | 49 | 0 | 221 |
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Sources: Authors' calculations; Insentia; RBA, online banknote surveys |
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At the national level, there were on average 27 media reports on 8 unique counterfeit incidents per month. The average number of submitted genuine banknotes per month was around 60 (compared to around 1,600 actual counterfeits), with the $50 denomination the most commonly submitted. Mistakenly submitted genuine banknotes tend to be very old or worn, or of a different design to banknotes currently being issued (for example, the commemorative ‘Federation $5’ banknote).