Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2008-01 A Sectoral Model of the Australian Economy Abstract

We use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) to examine the effect of unanticipated changes in monetary policy on the expenditure and production components of GDP over the period from 1983 to 2007. We find that dwelling investment and machinery & equipment investment are the most interest-sensitive expenditure components of activity, and that construction and retail trade are the most interest-sensitive production components of activity. We subject our model to a range of sensitivity checks and find that our results are robust to omitted variables, alternative identification schemes and the time period over which our model is estimated.

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