Appendix E: Multinomial Logit Estimates of Transition Probabilities, Unemployed and Marginally Attached | RDP 2002-07: An Exploration of Marginal Attachment to the Australian Labour Market

RDP 2002-07: An Exploration of Marginal Attachment to the Australian Labour Market Appendix E: Multinomial Logit Estimates of Transition Probabilities, Unemployed and Marginally Attached

Matthew Gray, Alexandra Heath and Boyd Hunter

November 2002

Table E1: Multinomial Logit Estimates of 12-month Transitions from Unemployment
Number of observations = 3,012 LR chi²(51) = 331.01 Pseudo R² = 0.050 Log likelihood = −3,180.2
	Employed	Marginally attached	Other NILF
Age	0.061 (0.023)^*	−0.006 (0.044)	−0.031 (0.039)
Age squared	−0.001 (0.000)^*	0.000 (0.000)	0.001 (0.001)
Degree or diploma qualification	0.414 (0.156)^*	0.215 (0.305)	0.510 (0.280)
Vocational qualification	0.242 (0.132)	−0.195 (0.277)	0.578 (0.236)^*
Incomplete secondary	−0.298 (0.112)^*	0.103 (0.217)	0.152 (0.212)
ESB migrant	0.227 (0.152)	0.638 (0.258)^*	−0.066 (0.263)
NESB migrant	−0.367 (0.129)^*	0.086 (0.234)	−0.149 (0.211)
Year of arrival in Australia	−0.487 (0.169)^*	−0.152 (0.291)	0.156 (0.270)
Male	−0.195 (0.309)	−0.081 (0.620)	−0.358 (0.520)
Male × couple family	0.122 (0.129)	0.195 (0.292)	−0.060 (0.233)
Male × dependent children	0.010 (0.123)	−0.421 (0.289)	−0.290 (0.235)
Male × local unemployment rate	−0.029 (0.016)	−0.007 (0.038)	−0.022 (0.031)
Female × couple family	0.218 (0.134)	0.671 (0.223)^*	0.456 (0.207)^*
Female × dependent children	−0.339 (0.135)^*	0.148 (0.221)	−0.204 (0.206)
Female × local unemployment rate	−0.043 (0.020)^*	0.024 (0.031)	−0.027 (0.030)
Younger × has a disability	−0.411 (0.105)^*	0.187 (0.200)	0.425 (0.176)^*
Older × has a disability	−0.598 (0.177)^*	0.121 (0.293)	0.382 (0.240)
Constant	0.179 (0.433)	−2.241 (0.814)^*	−1.186 (0.726)
Notes: Standard errors are presented in parentheses and * indicates significance at the 5 per cent level.

Table E2: Multinomial Logit Estimates of 12-month Transitions from Marginal Attachment
Number of observations = 422 LR chi²(34) = 81 Pseudo R² = 0.102 Log likelihood = −360
	Employed	Marginally attached
Age	0.173 (0.096)	0.086 (0.080)
Age squared	−0.003 (0.001)^*	−0.001 (0.001)
Degree or diploma qualification	0.645 (0.652)	0.458 (0.612)
Vocational qualification	−0.979 (0.581)	−0.359 (0.499)
Incomplete secondary	−0.424 (0.452)	0.382 (0.414)
ESB migrant	−0.379 (0.626)	0.187 (0.506)
NESB migrant	−0.132 (0.637)	0.375 (0.549)
Year of arrival in Australia	−0.871 (0.683)	−1.011 (0.568)
Male	−1.287 (1.248)	0.767 (1.113)
Male × couple family	0.539 (0.609)	−0.122 (0.541)
Male × dependent children	−0.106 (0.608)	0.726 (0.559)
Male × local unemployment rate	−0.058 (0.079)	−0.133 (0.072)
Female × couple family	−0.191 (0.439)	0.233 (0.382)
Female × dependent children	−0.856 (0.477)	0.017 (0.426)
Female × local unemployment rate	−0.065 (0.063)	0.025 (0.053)
Younger × has a disability	0.094 (0.432)	0.463 (0.374)
Older × has a disability	2.331 (0.885)^*	1.514 (0.750)^*
Constant	−0.029 (1.616)	−1.136 (1.387)
Notes: Standard errors are presented in parentheses and * indicates significance at the 5 per cent level.