Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2002-06 Output Gaps in Real Time: are they Reliable Enough to use for Monetary Policy?

Contents

• Introduction
• The Construction of Real-time Potential Output Estimates
• Results
• Sensitivity Analysis and Confidence Intervals
• Conclusions
• Appendix A: Implementation of the Phillips Curve Approach
• Appendix B: Statistical Properties of the Phillips Curve Approach
• Appendix C: Detailed Phillips Curve Specifications
• Appendix D: Data Sources and Definitions
• References

The authors are grateful to colleagues at the Reserve Bank, and to Richard Dennis, Simon van Norden, Athanasios Orphanides, Adrian Pagan, Glenn Rudebusch, Andrew Rennison and Peter Tulip for helpful comments. Responsibility for any remaining errors rests with the authors. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Reserve Bank.