Forecast Table – February 2023

This table provides additional detail on forecasts of key macroeconomic variables as at the February 2023 Statement on Monetary Policy.

Table 1: Forecast Table – February 2023(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown(b)
  Dec 2022 Jun 2023 Dec 2023 Jun 2024 Dec 2024 Jun 2025
Gross domestic product 2.7 2.3 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.7
Household consumption 5.5 2.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.0
Dwelling investment −0.9 3.4 −1.3 −4.8 −5.7 −4.3
Business investment 3.6 3.1 3.7 3.6 3.0 2.6
Public demand 3.1 0.3 0.1 1.7 2.4 1.6
Gross national expenditure 2.8 1.5 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.6
Imports 14.0 5.6 6.5 3.0 2.4 1.8
Exports 10.2 8.8 4.2 2.1 2.3 2.4
Real household disposable income −1.7 −0.9 −0.1 0.4 1.9 3.1
Terms of trade 4.6 −6.8 −3.3 −7.8 −6.4 −4.0
Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP 2.3 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.6
Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.4
Employment 4.8 2.4 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.1
Wage price index 3.5 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.8
Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour 4.7 6.8 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.1
Trimmed mean inflation 6.9 6.2 4.3 3.3 3.1 2.9
Consumer price index 7.8 6.7 4.8 3.6 3.2 3.0

(a) Forecasts finalised on 8 February. The forecasts are conditioned on a path for the cash rate broadly in line with expectations derived from surveys of professional economists and financial market pricing. Other forecast assumptions: TWI at 62; A$ at US$0.69; Brent crude oil price at US$82bbl. The rate of population growth is assumed to be in line with its pre-pandemic average.
(b) Forecasts are rounded to the first decimal point. Shading indicates historical data.

Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Consensus Economics; Refinitiv; RBA