Forecast Table – May 2023
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This table provides additional detail on forecasts of key macroeconomic variables as at the May 2023 Statement on Monetary Policy.
| Dec 2022 | Jun 2023 | Dec 2023 | Jun 2024 | Dec 2024 | Jun 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Household consumption | 5.4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Dwelling investment | −3.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | −2.4 | −3.0 | −0.5 |
| Business investment | 3.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Public demand | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Gross national expenditure | 3.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Imports | 12.1 | 3.3 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 2.7 |
| Exports | 7.7 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Real household disposable income | −3.3 | −2.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| Terms of trade | 7.2 | −7.0 | −4.5 | −5.0 | −4.1 | −3.7 |
| Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| Employment | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Wage price index | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour | 2.5 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Trimmed mean inflation | 6.9 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Consumer price index | 7.8 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
|
(a) Forecasts finalised 1 May. The forecasts are conditioned on a path
for the cash rate broadly in line with expectations derived from surveys of
professional economists and financial market pricing. The cash rate is assumed to
peak at around 3¾ per cent before declining to around 3 per cent
by mid-2025. Other forecast assumptions: TWI at 60; A$ at US$0.66; Brent crude oil
price at US$78bbl. The rate of population growth is assumed to be in line with
forecasts from the Australian Government’s Centre for Population.
Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Consensus Economics; Refinitiv; RBA |
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