RDP 7702: Inflation and Economic Stability in a Small Open Economy: A Systems Approach Appendix A. The Model

The specification of the model is as follows:

1. Household expenditure, demand for money

2. Net business fixed investment

3. Exports of goods and services

4. Imports of goods and services

5. Output, desired inventories

6. Price of output

7. price of government current goods and services

8. Price of exports

9. Average weekly earnings

10. Labour supply

11. Labour demand

12. Non-bank demand for government securities

13. Net capital inflow

14. Bank advances

15. Direct taxes

16. Indirect taxes

17. Balance of payments

18. Supply of money

19. Change in inventories

20. Bond rate

21. Exchange rate

22. Business fixed capital stock

Note: A subscript of zero indicates a constant.

The variables used in the model are:[43]

A all bank advances to private sector
B bonds held by private (non-bank) sector
c* real cash benefits to persons
d real household expenditure
E exchange rate ($A/$us)
F net Australian capital owned by overseas residents
g* real Australian government current spending
i real imports of goods and services
k net real business fixed investment
K stock of business fixed capital
Inline Equation real Australian government capital stock
L labour demand
M stock of money (M3)
N labour supply
P price of output
Pg price of government goods and services
Inline Equation Australian import prices ($US)
Px price of exports
Inline Equation world prices ($US)
QA* dummy variable for requests to limit advances, 1961
QE* dummy variable for exchange rate expectations, 1972–5
QER* dummy variable for timing of exchange rate changes, 1972, 1973, 1974
QF* dummy variable for capital controls, 1973–4
QS* dummy variable for credit squeeze, 1961, 1973
QUS* dummy variable for devaluation of $US, 1973
R foreign exchange reserves
r bond rate
Inline Equation world interest rate
t* time
Inline Equation income tax rate
Inline Equation expenditure tax rate
Inline Equation tariff rate
T1 direct tax receipts
T2 indirect tax receipts
V stock of inventories
W average weekly earnings
wA* real award wages
x real exports of goods and services
xw* real world exports
y real output (net of depreciation)
z* required asset ratio for all banks
λ1 target rate of growth of inventories
λ2 target rate of monetary growth
λ3 regular growth of real award wages

* The items marked with an asterisk are exogenous for estimation purposes. As discussed in section 4 however, some of these items are at least in part endogenous in the real world.

Footnote

The precise definitions and sources for all variables are given in Appendix B of Jonson, Moses and Wymer [1976]. [43]