Forecast Table – May 2022
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This table provides additional detail on forecasts of key macroeconomic variables as at the May 2022 Statement on Monetary Policy.
| Dec 2021 | Jun 2022 | Dec 2022 | Jun 2023 | Dec 2023 | Jun 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product | 4.2 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Household consumption | 3.5 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| Dwelling investment | 5.3 | −1.4 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| Business investment | 5.4 | −0.2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 5.5 |
| Public demand | 5.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | −1.1 | −0.7 | 0.9 |
| Gross national expenditure | 5.0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Imports | 1.0 | 3.6 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Exports | −2.6 | 4.6 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
| Real household disposable income | 2.6 | 4.7 | 0.9 | −1.0 | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| Terms of trade | 10.3 | 4.0 | 0.8 | −13.2 | −9.6 | −6.5 |
| Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) | 4.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| Employment | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Wage price index | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour | 3.3 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| Trimmed mean inflation | 2.6 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Consumer price index | 3.5 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
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(a) Forecasts finalised on 4 May. The forecasts are conditioned on a
path for the cash rate broadly in line with expectations derived from surveys of
professional economists and financial market pricing, and assume other elements of
the Bank's monetary stimulus are in line with the announcement made following the
May 2022 Board meeting. Other forecast assumptions: TWI at 63; A$ at US$0.71; Brent
crude oil price at US$101bbl. The assumed rate of population growth is broadly in
line with the profile set out in the Australian Government Budget 2022–23.
Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Consensus Economics; Refinitiv; RBA |
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