Forecast Table – August 2022

This table provides additional detail on forecasts of key macroeconomic variables as at the August 2022 Statement on Monetary Policy.

Forecast Table – August 2022(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown(b)
  Jun 2022 Dec 2022 Jun 2023 Dec 2023 Jun 2024 Dec 2024
Gross domestic product 3.5 3.2 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.7
Household consumption 4.6 4.9 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.2
Dwelling investment −1.7 1.7 2.5 −0.1 −2.6 −4.8
Business investment 1.6 4.9 5.9 6.6 5.7 4.6
Public demand 6.3 3.6 −0.5 −0.7 0.8 1.8
Gross national expenditure 4.1 3.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.9
Imports 5.0 11.4 6.2 4.0 3.0 2.9
Exports 2.3 8.6 9.8 5.1 2.8 2.2
Real household disposable income 3.9 −0.9 −3.1 −0.9 0.9 1.5
Terms of trade 6.8 2.6 −14.6 −8.9 −4.4 −1.6
Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP 2.8 3.3 4.8 3.4 3.4 3.5
Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) 3.8 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.0
Employment 3.2 4.4 2.2 1.4 1.1 0.9
Wage price index 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.9
Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour 5.2 3.0 4.1 5.0 5.0 4.9
Trimmed mean inflation 4.9 6.0 5.0 3.8 3.3 3.0
Consumer price index 6.1 7.8 6.2 4.3 3.5 3.0

(a) Forecasts finalised on 3 August. The forecasts are conditioned on a path for the cash rate broadly in line with expectations derived from surveys of professional economists and financial market pricing. Other forecast assumptions: TWI at 63; A$ at US$0.69; Brent crude oil price at US$94bbl. The assumed rate of population growth is broadly in line with the profile set out in the Australian Government Budget 2022–23.
(b) Forecasts are rounded to the first decimal point. Shading indicates historical data.

Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Consensus Economics; Refinitiv; RBA