Forecast Table – August 2021 – ‘Baseline’ Scenario

This table provides additional detail on key macroeconomic variables presented in the ‘baseline’ scenario in the August 2021 Statement on Monetary Policy.

  Jun 2021 Dec 2021 Jun 2022 Dec 2022 Jun 2023 Dec 2023
Table 1: Forecast Table – August 2021 – ‘Baseline’ Scenario(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown(b)
Gross domestic product 9½ 4 4½ 4¼ 2¾ 2½
Household consumption 15 2¾ 5¼ 6 3¼ 3¼
Dwelling investment 19 14¼ 1¼ −½ ¼ 1¾
Business investment 4¾ 8½ 8 9 6½ 5¼
Public demand 4¾ 4½ 5½ 3½ 1¼ ½
Gross national expenditure 13 4¾ 4¾ 5¼ 2¾ 2½
Imports 17¼ 8½ 7¼ 9 8½ 6½
Exports ¼ 5 6¼ 4¼ 7½ 6
Real household disposable income 1 1¾ 1½ 1¼ 1¼ 1½
Terms of trade 21½ 9¾ −11½ −12½ −7¼ −3¾
Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP 10¼ 4½ 5¾ 4¼ 3¾ 3½
Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) 5.2 5 4½ 4¼ 4¼ 4
Employment 6.4 2½ 1½ 1¾ 1¼ 1¼
Wage price index 1¾ 2¼ 2¼ 2½ 2½ 2¾
Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour −5¼ −¾ 2¼ 2¾ 3 3
Trimmed mean inflation 1.6 1¾ 1½ 1¾ 2 2¼
Consumer price index 3.8 2½ 1½ 1¾ 2 2¼


(a) Forecasts finalised on 4 August. Forecast assumptions: TWI at 62, A$ at US$0.74, Brent crude oil price at US$70/bbl, population growth of 0.1 per cent over 2021, 0.4 per cent over 2022 and 1.2 per cent over 2023; cash rate in line with market pricing; and other elements of the Bank's monetary stimulus are in line with the announcement made following the August 2021 Board meeting.
(b) Forecasts are rounded to the nearest quarter point. Shading indicates historical data, shown to the first decimal point.

Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Consensus Economics; Refinitiv; RBA