Forecast Table – May 2020 – ‘Baseline’ Scenario

This table provides additional detail on key macroeconomic variables presented in the ‘baseline’ scenario in the May 2020 Statement on Monetary Policy.

Forecast Table – May 2020 – ‘Baseline’ Scenario(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown(b)
  Dec 2019 Jun 2020 Dec 2020 Jun 2021 Dec 2021 Jun 2022
Gross domestic product 2.2 −8 −6 7 6 5
Household consumption 1.2 −15 −9 13 9 5
Dwelling investment −9.7 −17 −13 2 6 10
Business investment −1.2 −8 −13 −6 4 8
Public demand 4.7 5 2 0 2 3
Gross national expenditure 1.2 −9 −7 7 7 5
Imports −1.5 −14 −11 13 13 6
Exports 3.4 −10 −7 14 12 4
Real household disposable income 1.8 −8 −8 6 8 6
Terms of trade −0.6 −4 −7 −9 −2 −2
Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP 3.2 −6 0 10 5 4
Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) 5.2 10 9 8½ 7½ 6½
Employment 2.0 −7 −7 4 6 5
Wage price index 2.2 2 1½ 1½ 1¾ 2
Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour 3.1 7¾ −¼ −5¾ 2½ 4
Trimmed mean inflation 1.6 1½ 1¼ 1¼ 1¼ 1½
Consumer price index 1.8 −1 ¼ 2¾ 1¼ 1½

(a) The cash rate is assumed to remain at its current level, with other elements of the Bank's monetary stimulus package, including the 0.25 per cent target for the 3-year government bond yield, assumed to remain consistent with current settings. Other technical assumptions include the TWI at 57, A$ at US$0.64 and Brent crude oil price at US$35 per barrel; shaded regions are historical data.
(b) Rounding varies: economic activity variables rounded to the nearest whole number; unemployment rate to the nearest half point; wages and prices variables to the nearest quarter point

Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Refinitiv; RBA