Statement on Monetary Policy – May 2017 List of tables

Chapters

Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, per cent
  Since previous Statement Over the past year
Bulk commodities −4 47
– Iron ore −22 9
– Coking coal 29 130
– Thermal coal 0 64
Rural 1 11
Base metals −1 26
Gold 0 0
Brent crude oil(b) −9 12
RBA ICP −5 40
– Using spot prices for bulk commodities −3 33

(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodities prices are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS; RBA
Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
  Policy rate Per cent   Most recent change
Euro area(a) −0.40 ↓ Mar 16
Japan(a) −0.10 ↓ Jan 16
United States(b) 0.875 ↑ Mar 17
Australia 1.50 ↓ Aug 16
Brazil 11.25 ↓ Apr 17
Canada 0.50 ↓ Jul 15
Chile 2.75 ↓ Apr 17
India 6.25 ↓ Oct 16
Indonesia 4.75 ↓ Oct 16
Israel 0.10 ↓ Feb 15
Malaysia 3.00 ↓ July 16
Mexico 6.50 ↑ Mar 17
New Zealand 1.75 ↓ Nov 16
Norway 0.50 ↓ Mar 16
Russia 9.25 ↓ Apr 17
South Africa 7.00 ↑ Mar 16
South Korea 1.25 ↓ Jun 16
Sweden −0.50 ↓ Feb 16
Switzerland(b) −0.75 ↓ Jan 15
Thailand 1.50 ↓ Apr 15
Turkey 8.00 ↑ Nov 16
United Kingdom 0.25 ↓ Aug 16

(a) Marginal rate paid on deposits at the central bank
(b) Midpoint of target range

Sources: Central banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 2.2 Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
  2017 to date
United States – S&P 500 7
Euro area – STOXX 10
United Kingdom – FTSE 1
Japan – Nikkei 2
Canada – TSE 300 2
Australia – ASX 200 4
China – MSCI All China 8
MSCI indices  
– Emerging Asia 13
– Latin America 8
– Emerging Europe 0
– World 7

Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
  Over 2016 2017 to date
Canadian dollar −3 2
Philippine peso 6 1
New Zealand dollar −1 1
Chinese renminbi 7 −1
Indonesian rupiah −2 −1
Swiss franc 2 −2
Brazilian real −18 −3
Swedish krona 8 −3
Australian dollar 1 −3
European euro 3 −3
Singapore dollar 2 −3
Thai baht −1 −4
Japanese yen −3 −4
Malaysian ringgit 5 −4
UK pound sterling 19 −4
Indian rupee 3 −5
South Korean won 3 −6
Russian rouble −14 −7
New Taiwan dollar −1 −7
Mexican peso 21 −9
Trade-weighted index 4 −3

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
  Percentage change: Level
End March 2016 to latest End December 2016 to latest US$ equivalent (billions)
China −6 0 3,009
Saudi Arabia −13 −5 499
Taiwan(b) 1 1 438
Hong Kong 10 3 385
South Korea 1 1 365
Brazil 4 1 359
India 3 3 347
Russia 2 5 323
Singapore 5 5 257
Thailand 3 5 172
Mexico −1 1 170
Indonesia 14 5 116
Malaysia 0 2 89
Turkey −11 −7 84

(a) Data to end March for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand; to 14 April for Malaysia; to 21 April for India, Russia and Turkey; to end April for Brazil
(b) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; central banks; IMF; RBA
Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
  Over 2016 2017 to date
Canadian dollar −4 5
New Zealand dollar −3 4
US dollar −1 3
Chinese renminbi 6 2
Indonesian rupiah −3 2
South African rand −12 1
Swiss franc 1 1
European euro 2 0
Singapore dollar 1 0
Thai baht −2 −1
Japanese yen −4 −1
Malaysian ringgit 3 −1
UK pound sterling 18 −1
Indian rupee 1 −3
South Korean won 1 −3
Trade-weighted index 2 0

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
  December quarter 2016 September quarter 2016 Year to December quarter 2016
GDP 1.1 −0.5 2.4
Domestic final demand 1.2 −0.4 2.1
– Consumption 0.9 0.4 2.6
– Dwelling investment 1.2 −1.3 5.6
– Mining investment 2.5 −11.3 −24.0
– Non-mining investment 1.7 −0.9 3.6
– Public demand 1.4 0.0 4.9
Change in inventories(a) −0.2 0.1 0.2
Exports 2.2 1.0 8.9
Imports 1.4 1.2 3.3
Mining activity(b) 1.3 −1.4 3.4
Non-mining activity(b) 1.0 −0.4 2.3
Nominal GDP 3.0 0.7 6.1
Real gross domestic income 2.9 0.5 5.4
Terms of trade 9.1 5.1 15.6

(a) Contribution to GDP growth
(b) RBA estimates

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
  Three-month ended Year-ended
Dec 2016 Mar 2017 Mar 2017
Total credit 1.7 0.8 5.0
– Housing 1.6 1.7 6.5
– Owner-occupier 1.4 1.5 6.2
– Investor 2.2 2.0 7.1
– Personal −0.3 −0.5 −1.5
– Business 2.2 −0.5 3.4
Broad money 2.2 1.9 6.7

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: APRA; RBA
Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Lending Rates
  Interest rate Change since November 2016 Change since April 2016
Per cent Basis points Basis points
Housing loans
– Variable principal-and-interest rate(a)(b)
– Owner-occupier 4.48 3 −30
– Investor 4.97 28 −4
– Variable interest-only rate(a)(b)
– Owner-occupier 4.66 10 −19
– Investor 5.12 35 3
– Average outstanding rate(d) 4.63 11 −22
Personal loans
– Variable rate(e) 11.62 17 25
Small business
– Term loans variable rate(f) 6.43 4 −32
– Overdraft variable rate(f) 7.31 4 −32
– Fixed rate(c)(f) 5.27 −3 −15
– Average outstanding rate(d) 5.34 −2 −35
Large business
Average outstanding rate(d) 3.50 0 −46

(a) Includes announced changes to new lending to May 2017
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on new, $500,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' 3-year fixed rates
(d) RBA estimates, includes variable and fixed rates
(e) Weighted average of variable rate products
(f) Residentially secured, average of the major banks' advertised rates

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar; RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
  Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
March quarter 2017 December quarter 2016 March quarter 2017 December quarter 2016
Consumer Price Index 0.5 0.5 2.1 1.5
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.5 0.5    
– Tradables 0.5 0.0 1.3 0.1
– Tradables (excl volatile items)(c) −0.1 −0.6 −0.9 −0.5
– Non-tradables 0.7 0.8 2.6 2.1
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.5 0.5 1.9 1.6
Weighted median 0.4 0.4 1.7 1.4
CPI excl volatile items(c) 0.4 0.3 1.5 1.3

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
  Year-ended
Dec 2016 Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018 Dec 2018 Jun 2019
GDP growth 2.4 1½–2½ 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾ 2¾–3¾ 2¾–3¾
Unemployment rate(b) 5.7 5¾ 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
CPI inflation 1.5 2 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 2–3
Underlying inflation 1½ 1¾ 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 2–3
  Year-average
2016 2016/17 2017 2017/18 2018 2018/19
GDP growth 2.5 1½–2½ 2–3 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾ 2¾–3¾

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.74, TWI at 64 and Brent crude oil price at US$51 per barrel; shaded regions are historical data
(b) Rate at end of period

Sources: ABS; RBA