Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2017 List of tables

Chapters

Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, per cent
  Since previous Statement Over the past year
Bulk commodities −7 94
– Iron ore 33 88
– Coking coal −34 126
– Thermal coal −24 70
Rural 6 12
Base metals 12 31
Gold −3 8
Brent crude oil(b) 18 67
RBA ICP 16 55
– using spot prices for bulk commodities −2 55

(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodities prices are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS; RBA
Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
  Policy rate
Per cent		   Most recent
change
Euro area(a) −0.40 ↓ Mar 16
Japan(a) −0.10 ↓ Jan 16
United States(b) 0.625 ↑ Dec 16
Australia 1.50 ↓ Aug 16
Brazil 13.00 ↓ Jan 17
Canada 0.50 ↓ Jul 15
Chile 3.25 ↓ Jan 17
India 6.25 ↓ Oct 16
Indonesia 4.75 ↓ Oct 16
Israel 0.10 ↓ Feb 15
Malaysia 3.00 ↓ July 16
Mexico 5.75 ↑ Dec 16
New Zealand 1.75 ↓ Nov 16
Norway 0.50 ↓ Mar 16
Russia 10.00 ↓ Sep 16
South Africa 7.00 ↑ Mar 16
South Korea 1.25 ↓ Jun 16
Sweden −0.50 ↓ Feb 16
Switzerland(b) −0.75 ↓ Jan 15
Thailand 1.50 ↓ Apr 15
Turkey 8.00 ↑ Nov 16
United Kingdom 0.25 ↓ Aug 16

(a) Marginal rate paid on deposits at the central bank
(b) Midpoint of target range

Sources: Central banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 2.2: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
  Over 2016 2017 to date
Philippine peso 6 1
Malaysian ringgit 5 −1
Indonesian rupiah −2 −1
Chinese renminbi 7 −1
Mexican peso 21 −1
UK pound sterling 19 −1
Indian rupee 3 −1
European euro 3 −2
Singapore dollar 2 −2
Canadian dollar −3 −2
Thai baht −1 −2
Swiss franc 2 −2
Swedish krona 8 −3
Russian rouble −14 −4
New Taiwan dollar −1 −4
Japanese yen −3 −4
Brazilian real −18 −4
New Zealand dollar −1 −5
South Korean won 3 −5
Australian dollar 1 −6
Trade-weighted index 4 −2

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 2.3: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
  Percentage change: Level
  End December 2015 to latest End September 2016 to latest US$ equivalent (billions)
China −10 −5 2,998
Saudi Arabia −13 −3 527
Taiwan(b) 2 0 437
Hong Kong 9 7 379
South Korea 1 −1 364
Brazil 2 −1 355
India 3 −2 339
Russia 3 −1 318
Singapore 2 0 250
Mexico 0 −2 168
Thailand 10 −4 164
Indonesia 11 2 111
Turkey 0 −7 91
Malaysia 1 −2 88

(a) Data to end December for Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Thailand; to 27 January for India and Turkey; and to end January for Brazil, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan
(b) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; central banks; IMF; RBA
Table 2.4: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
  Over 2016 2017 to date
US dollar −1 6
Malaysian ringgit 3 5
Indonesian rupiah −3 5
Chinese renminbi 6 5
UK pound sterling 18 5
Indian rupee 1 5
European euro 2 4
Singapore dollar 1 4
Canadian dollar −4 4
South African rand −12 4
Thai baht −2 4
Swiss franc 1 3
Japanese yen −4 2
New Zealand dollar −3 1
South Korean won 1 1
Trade-weighted index 2 4

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
  September quarter 2016 June
quarter 2016		 Year to September quarter 2016
GDP −0.5 0.6 1.8
Domestic final demand −0.5 0.8 1.5
– Consumption 0.4 0.5 2.5
– Dwelling investment −1.4 2.6 7.2
– Mining investment −10.6 −15.0 −32.9
– Non-mining investment −0.2 5.3 5.1
– Public demand −0.7 2.9 4.8
Change in inventories(a) 0.1 0.2 0.3
Exports 0.3 2.1 6.0
Imports 1.3 2.9 2.3
Mining activity(b) −2.3 −0.2 −3.3
Non-mining activity(b) −0.2 0.8 2.5
Nominal GDP 0.5 1.4 3.0
Real gross domestic income 0.4 1.0 2.0
Terms of trade 4.4 2.3 1.4

(a) Contribution to GDP growth
(b) RBA estimates

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
  Three-month ended Year-ended
  Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Dec 2016
Total credit 1.2 1.7 5.6
– Housing 1.6 1.6 6.3
– Owner-occupier 1.6 1.3 6.4
– Investor 1.6 2.2 6.2
– Personal −0.4 −0.2 −1.3
– Business 0.8 2.3 5.6
Broad money 1.3 2.2 6.8

(a) Growth rates are break-adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: APRA; RBA
Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
  Interest
rate
Per cent		 Change since
November 2016
Basis points		 Change since
April 2016
Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a)(d)
– Owner-occupier 5.26 0 −36
– Investor 5.56 6 −30
– Package variable rate(b)(d)
– Owner-occupier 4.51 0 −31
– Investor 4.81 6 −25
– Fixed rate(c)(d)
– Owner-occupier 4.26 15 −17
– Investor 4.46 21 −20
– Average outstanding rate(d) 4.52 2 −31
Personal loans
– Variable rate(e) 11.56 17 20
Small business
– Term loans variable rate(f) 6.39 0 −36
– Overdraft variable rate(f) 7.27 0 −36
– Fixed rate(c)(f) 5.34 4 −8
– Average outstanding rate(d) 5.34 0 −35
Large business
Average outstanding rate(d) 3.50 1 −41

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on new $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' 3-year fixed rates
(d) RBA estimates
(e) Weighted average of variable rate products
(f) Residentially secured, average of the major banks' advertised rates

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar; RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
  Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
  December quarter 2016 September quarter 2016 December quarter 2016 September quarter 2016
Consumer Price Index 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.3
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.5 0.5    
– Tradables 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.7
– Tradables
(excl volatile items)(c)		 −0.6 0.2 −0.5 1.4
– Non-tradables 0.8 0.4 2.1 1.7
Selected underlying measures        
Trimmed mean 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.7
Weighted median 0.4 0.4 1.5 1.3
CPI excl volatile items(c) 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.7

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
  Year-ended
  Dec 2016 Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018 Dec 2018 Jun 2019
GDP growth 2 1½–2½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾ 2¾–3¾
Unemployment rate(b) 5.8 5¾ 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
CPI inflation 1.5 2 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 2–3
Underlying inflation 1.6 1¾ 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 2–3
  Year-average
  2016 2016/17 2017 2017/18 2018 2018/19
GDP growth 2¼ 1½–2½ 2–3 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.76, TWI at 66 and Brent crude oil price at US$56 per barrel; shaded regions are historical data
(b) Rate at end of period

Sources: ABS; RBA