Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2017 List of tables

Chapters

Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, per cent
  Since previous Statement Over the past year
Bulk commodities −2 32
– Iron ore 9 15
– Coking coal −21 72
– Thermal coal 12 32
Rural 0 4
Base metals 3 21
Gold 0 −8
Brent crude oil(b) 9 28
RBA ICP −8 13
– Using spot prices for bulk commodities −1 21

(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodities prices are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS; RBA
Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
  Policy rate Per cent   Most recent
change
Euro area(a) −0.40 ↓ Mar 16
Japan(a) −0.10 ↓ Jan 16
United States(b) 1.125 ↑ Jun 17
Australia 1.50 ↓ Aug 16
Brazil 9.25 ↓ Jul 17
Canada 0.75 ↑ Jul 17
Chile 2.50 ↓ May 17
India 6.00 ↓ Aug 17
Indonesia 4.75 ↓ Oct 16
Israel 0.10 ↓ Feb 15
Malaysia 3.00 ↓ Jul 16
Mexico 7.00 ↑ Jun 17
New Zealand 1.75 ↓ Nov 16
Norway 0.50 ↓ Mar 16
Russia 9.00 ↓ Jun 17
South Africa 6.75 ↓ Jul 17
South Korea 1.25 ↓ Jun 16
Sweden −0.50 ↓ Feb 16
Switzerland(b) −0.75 ↓ Jan 15
Thailand 1.50 ↓ Apr 15
Turkey 8.00 ↑ Nov 16
United Kingdom 0.25 ↓ Aug 16

(a) Marginal rate paid on deposits at the central bank
(b) Midpoint of target range

Sources: Central banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 2.2: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
  Over 2016 2017 to date
Philippine peso 6 2
Indonesian rupiah −2 −1
Russian rouble −14 −2
Chinese renminbi 7 −3
Brazilian real −18 −4
Malaysian ringgit 5 −4
Swiss franc 2 −5
Japanese yen −3 −5
Singapore dollar 2 −6
Indian rupee 3 −6
Canadian dollar −3 −6
UK pound sterling 19 −7
New Taiwan dollar −1 −7
New Zealand dollar −1 −7
South Korean won 3 −7
Thai baht −1 −7
Australian dollar 1 −10
Swedish krona 8 −11
European euro 3 −11
Mexican peso 21 −14
Trade-weighted index 4 −7

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Table 2.3 Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
  Percentage change: Level
End June 2016
to latest		 End March 2017
to latest		 US$ equivalent
(billions)
China −5 2 3,057
Saudi Arabia −12 −2 491
Taiwan(b) 2 1 442
Hong Kong 14 3 399
South Korea 3 1 371
India 8 6 367
Brazil 3 3 364
Russia 5 4 334
Singapore 7 3 264
Thailand 4 3 177
Mexico −2 −2 166
Indonesia 13 1 117
Malaysia 4 4 93
Turkey −16 −3 84

(a) Data to end June for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand; to 14 July for Malaysia; to 21 July for India, Russia and Turkey; to 1 August for Brazil
(b) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; central banks; IMF; RBA
Table 2.4: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
  Over 2016 2017 to date
US dollar −1 11
Indonesian rupiah −3 9
Chinese renminbi 6 7
South African rand −12 7
Malaysian ringgit 3 6
Swiss franc 1 5
Japanese yen −4 5
Singapore dollar 1 4
Indian rupee 1 4
Canadian dollar −4 4
UK pound sterling 18 3
New Zealand dollar −3 3
South Korean won 1 3
Thai baht −2 3
European euro 2 −2
Trade-weighted index 2 5

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
  March
quarter 2017		 December
quarter 2016		 Year to March
quarter 2017
GDP 0.3 1.1 1.7
Domestic final demand 0.3 1.1 1.7
– Consumption 0.5 1.0 2.3
– Dwelling investment −4.4 1.9 −2.5
– Mining investment 3.7 1.5 −17.5
– Non-mining investment −0.4 1.4 4.3
– Public demand 0.4 1.0 4.0
Change in inventories(a) 0.4 −0.3 0.6
Exports −1.6 3.7 5.6
Imports 1.6 1.9 7.9
Mining activity(b) 1.0 2.6 3.6
Non-mining activity(b) 0.1 0.9 1.5
Nominal GDP 2.3 3.2 7.7
Real gross domestic income 1.7 3.1 6.5
Terms of trade 6.6 9.6 24.8

(a) Contribution to GDP growth
(b) RBA estimates

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
  Three-month ended Year-ended
Mar 2017 June 2017 June 2017
Total credit 0.9 1.5 5.4
– Housing 1.7 1.6 6.6
– Owner-occupier 1.5 1.6 6.2
– Investor 2.0 1.5 7.4
– Personal −0.5 −0.3 −1.4
– Business −0.4 1.5 4.4
Broad money 1.9 2.1 7.7

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: APRA; RBA
Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
  Interest
rate Per cent		 Change since
November 2016 Basis points		 Change since
April 2016 Basis points
Housing loans
– Variable principal-and-interest rate(a)(b)
– Owner-occupier 4.41 −4 −36
– Investor 4.98 29 −3
– Variable interest-only rate(a)(b)
– Owner-occupier 4.98 52 18
– Investor 5.46 73 43
– Fixed principal-and-interest rate (a)(c)(d)
– Owner-occupier 4.14 3 −29
– Investor 4.45 20 −21
– Average outstanding rate(d) 4.63 13 −20
Personal loans
– Variable rate(e) 11.46 18 10
Small business
– Term loans variable rate(f) 6.43 4 −32
– Overdraft variable rate(f) 7.31 4 −32
– Fixed rate(c)(f) 5.29 −1 −13
– Average outstanding rate(d) 5.36 1 −32
Large business
Average outstanding rate(d) 3.49 0 −48

(a) Includes announced changes to new lending to August 2017
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on new, $500,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' 3-year fixed rates
(d) RBA estimates
(e) Weighted average of variable rate products
(f) Residentially secured, average of the major banks' advertised rates

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar; RBA

Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
  Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
June quarter 2017 March quarter 2017 June quarter 2017 March quarter 2017
Consumer Price Index 0.2 0.5 1.9 2.1
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.4 0.6    
– Tradables −0.3 0.5 0.4 1.3
– Tradables (excl volatile items)(c) −0.1 −0.1 −0.9 −0.9
– Non-tradables 0.7 0.7 2.7 2.6
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.5 0.5 1.8 1.8
Weighted median 0.5 0.5 1.8 1.7
CPI excl volatile items(c) 0.5 0.4 1.5 1.5

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
  Year-ended
Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018 Dec 2018 Jun 2019 Dec 2019
GDP growth 1¾ 2–3 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾ 3–4 3–4
Unemployment rate(b) 5.6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
CPI inflation 1.9 1½–2½ 1¾–2¾ 1¾–2¾ 2–3 2–3
Underlying inflation 1¾ 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 2–3 2–3
  Year-average
  2016/17 2017 2017/18 2018 2018/19 2019
GDP growth 2 1¾–2¾ 2¼–3¼ 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾ 2¾–3¾

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.80, TWI at 67 and Brent crude oil price at US$53 per barrel; shaded regions are historical data
(b) Rate at end of period

Sources: ABS; RBA