Statement on Monetary Policy – May 2016 List of tables

Chapters

Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, three-month-average prices, per cent
  Since previous Statement Over the past year
Bulk commodities 18 −9
– Iron ore 31 −1
– Coking coal 9 −19
– Thermal coal −1 −17
Rural 0 −7
Base metals 4 −17
Gold 13 3
Brent oil(b) 5 −33
RBA ICP 5 −15
– using spot prices for bulk commodities 9 −12

(a) Prices from the RBA ICP; bulk commodities prices are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS; RBA
Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
  Policy rate Per cent   Most recent change
Euro area(a) −0.40 ↓ Mar 16
Japan(a) −0.10 ↓ Jan 16
United States(b) 0.375 ↑ Dec 15
Australia 1.75 ↓ May 16
Brazil 14.25 ↑ Jul 15
Canada 0.50 ↓ Jul 15
Chile 3.50 ↑ Dec 15
India 6.50 ↓ Apr 16
Indonesia 6.75 ↓ Mar 16
Israel 0.10 ↓ Feb 15
Malaysia 3.25 ↑ Jul 14
Mexico 3.75 ↑ Feb 16
New Zealand 2.25 ↓ Mar 16
Norway 0.50 ↓ Mar 16
Russia 11.00 ↓ Jul 15
South Africa 7.00 ↑ Mar 16
South Korea 1.50 ↓ Jun 15
Sweden −0.50 ↓ Feb 16
Switzerland(b) −0.75 ↓ Jan 15
Thailand 1.50 ↓ Apr 15
Turkey 7.50 ↓ Feb 15
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09

(a) Marginal rate paid on deposits at the central bank

(b) Midpoint of target range

Sources: Central banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
  Over 2015 2016 to date
United States – S&P 500 −1 0
Euro area – STOXX 8 −9
United Kingdom – FTSE −5 −2
Japan – Nikkei 9 −15
Canada – TSE 300 −11 5
Australia – ASX 200 −2 0
China – MSCI All China 2 −13
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −8 −3
– Latin America −11 13
– Emerging Europe −4 6
– World −1 −3

Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
  Over 2015 2016 to date
Mexican peso 17 3
UK pound sterling 6 2
Philippine peso 5 1
Indian rupee 5 1
Chinese renminbi 5 0
New Zealand dollar 14 −1
New Taiwan dollar 4 −1
South Korean won 8 −2
Australian dollar 12 −2
Thai baht 10 −2
Indonesian rupiah 11 −4
Singapore dollar 7 −4
Swiss franc 1 −4
Swedish krona 8 −4
European euro 11 −5
Malaysian ringgit 22 −6
Canadian dollar 19 −7
Russian rouble 24 −7
Brazilian real 50 −10
Japanese yen 0 −11
TWI 10 −3

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
  Percentage change since: Level
End March 2015 End December 2015 US$ equivalent (billions)
China −14 −4 3,213
Saudi Arabia −16 −5 576
Taiwan(b) 4 1 432
South Korea 2 0 360
Brazil −1 0 350
Hong Kong 9 0 348
India 6 3 338
Russia 6 3 316
Singapore −1 −1 244
Mexico −8 2 171
Thailand 12 12 166
Indonesia −4 1 101
Turkey −6 3 94
Malaysia −7 3 89
Argentina 10 41 29

(a) Data to end March for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand; to 15 April for Malaysia; to 22 April for India, Russia and Turkey; to end April for Argentina and Brazil.

(b) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets).

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; central banks; IMF; RBA
Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
  Over 2015 2016 to date
UK pound sterling −6 4
Indian rupee −7 3
Chinese renminbi −7 3
US dollar −11 2
New Zealand dollar 2 2
South Korean won −4 1
Thai baht −2 0
South African rand 19 −1
Indonesian rupiah −1 −2
Singapore dollar −5 −2
Swiss franc −10 −2
European euro −1 −3
Malaysian ringgit 9 −4
Canadian dollar 6 −5
Japanese yen −11 −9
TWI −6 0

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
  December quarter 2015 September quarter 2015 Year to December quarter 2015
GDP 0.6 1.1 3.0
Consumption 0.8 0.9 2.9
Dwelling investment 2.2 1.9 9.8
Business investment −2.7 −4.5 −12.0
Public demand 1.4 −0.8 3.5
Exports 0.6 5.4 5.7
Imports 0.6 −2.3 1.2
Nominal GDP 0.4 1.1 2.4
Real gross domestic income 0.0 0.5 0.3

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
  Three-month ended Year-ended
December 2015 March 2016 March 2016
Total credit 1.6 1.4 6.4
– Housing 1.8 1.5 7.2
– Owner-occupier 2.2 1.7 7.2
– Investor 1.1 1.3 7.0
– Personal −0.4 −0.7 −1.0
– Business 1.6 1.7 6.5
Broad money 1.3 1.8 6.3

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: APRA; RBA
Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
Prior to the May Cash Rate Reduction
  Interest rate Change since January 2016 Change since July 2015
Per cent Basis points Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a)(d)
– Owner-occupier 5.63 0 17
– Investor 5.87 −3 41
– Package variable rate(b)(d)
– Owner-occupier 4.83 0 16
– Investor 5.07 −4 40
– Fixed rate(c)(d)
– Owner-occupier 4.43 0 −23
– Investor 4.66 −4 −43
– Average outstanding rate(d) 4.85 −1 16
Personal loans
– Variable rate(e) 11.40 9 19
Small business
– Term loans variable rate(f) 6.75 15 15
– Overdraft variable rate(f) 7.63 15 15
– Fixed rate(c)(f) 5.42 −1 4
– Average outstanding rate(d) 5.71 6 −1
Large business
Average outstanding rate(d) 3.98 5 2

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates

(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans

(c) Average of the major banks' 3-year fixed rates

(d) RBA estimates

(e) Weighted average of variable rate products

(f) Residentially secured, average of the major banks' advertised rates

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
  Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
March quarter 2016 December quarter 2015 March quarter 2016 December quarter 2015
Consumer Price Index −0.2 0.4 1.3 1.7
Seasonally adjusted CPI −0.1 0.4    
– Tradables −0.7 0.3 0.6 0.8
– Tradables (excl. volatile items and tobacco)(c) 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.8
– Non-tradables 0.2 0.4 1.7 2.3
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.1
Weighted median 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.9
CPI excl. volatile items(c) 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.1

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS

(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median

(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
  Year-ended
  Dec 2015 Jun 2016 Dec 2016 Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018
GDP growth 3 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 3–4
CPI inflation 1.7 1 1–2 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½
Underlying inflation 2 1½ 1–2 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½
  Year-average
  2015 2015/16 2016 2016/17 2017 2017/18
GDP growth 2½ 2½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.75, TWI at 62.5 and Brent crude oil price at US$47 per barrel; shaded regions are historical data

Sources: ABS; RBA