Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2016 List of tables

Chapters

Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, three-month-average prices, per cent
  Since previous
Statement		 Over the
past year
Bulk commodities 2 −2
– Iron ore −4 −5
– Coking coal 9 7
– Thermal coal 9 −5
Rural 4 −3
Base metals 2 −11
Gold 4 11
Brent crude oil(b) 20 −22
RBA ICP 4 −7
– using spot prices for bulk commodities 2 −5

(a) Prices from the RBA ICP; bulk commodities prices are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS; RBA
Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
  Policy rate Per cent   Most
recent
change
Euro area(a) −0.40 ↓ Mar 16
Japan(a) −0.10 ↓ Jan 16
United States(b) 0.375 ↑ Dec 15
Australia 1.50 ↓ Aug 16
Brazil 14.25 ↑ Jul 15
Canada 0.50 ↓ Jul 15
Chile 3.50 ↑ Dec 15
India 6.50 ↓ Apr 16
Indonesia 5.25 ↓ Jun 16
Israel 0.10 ↓ Feb 15
Malaysia 3.00 ↓ Jul 16
Mexico 4.25 ↑ Jun 16
New Zealand 2.25 ↓ Mar 16
Norway 0.50 ↓ Mar 16
Russia 10.50 ↓ Jun 16
South Africa 7.00 ↑ Mar 16
South Korea 1.25 ↓ Jun 16
Sweden −0.50 ↓ Feb 16
Switzerland(b) −0.75 ↓ Jan 15
Thailand 1.50 ↓ Apr 15
Turkey 7.50 ↓ Feb 15
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09

(a) Marginal rate paid on deposits at the central bank
(b) Midpoint of target range

Sources: Central banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 2.2 Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
  Over 2015 2016 to date
United States – S&P 500 −1 6
Euro area – STOXX 8 −9
United Kingdom – FTSE −5 6
Japan – Nikkei 9 −16
Canada – TSE 300 −11 12
Australia – ASX 200 −2 3
China – MSCI All China 2 −12
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −8 3
– Latin America −11 20
– Emerging Europe −4 2
– World −1 1

Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
  Over 2015 2016 to date
UK pound sterling 6 11
Mexican peso 17 10
Chinese renminbi 5 2
Swedish krona 8 1
Indian rupee 5 1
Philippine peso 5 0
European euro 11 −3
Thai baht 10 −3
Swiss franc 1 −3
New Taiwan dollar 4 −3
Australian dollar 12 −4
New Zealand dollar 14 −5
Indonesian rupiah 11 −5
South Korean won 8 −5
Singapore dollar 7 −5
Canadian dollar 19 −6
Malaysian ringgit 22 −6
Russian rouble 24 −8
Japanese yen 0 −16
Brazilian real 50 −18
TWI 10 −1

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
  Percentage change since: Level
End June 2015 End March 2016 US$ equivalent (billions)
China −13 0 3,205
Saudi Arabia −15 −3 560
Taiwan(b) 3 0 434
South Korea −2 0 360
Brazil −1 3 357
Hong Kong 7 1 351
India 2 1 338
Russia 5 0 318
Singapore −2 1 246
Mexico −8 −1 169
Thailand 12 2 169
Indonesia 1 2 103
Turkey 1 6 100
Malaysia −8 0 89
Argentina −8 10 26

(a) Data to end June for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand; to 15 July for Malaysia; to 22 July for India, Russia and Turkey; to end July for Argentina and Brazil.
(b) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets).

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; central banks; IMF; RBA
Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
  Over 2015 2016 to date
UK pound sterling −6 15
Chinese renminbi −7 6
Indian rupee −7 5
US dollar −11 4
European euro −1 1
Thai baht −2 1
Swiss franc −10 1
New Zealand dollar 2 −1
Indonesian rupiah −1 −1
South Korean won −4 −1
Singapore dollar −5 −1
Canadian dollar 6 −2
Malaysian ringgit 9 −2
South African rand 19 −6
Japanese yen −11 −12
TWI −6 1

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
  March
quarter 2016		 December
quarter 2015		 Year to March
quarter 2016
GDP 1.1 0.7 3.1
Consumption 0.7 0.8 3.0
Dwelling investment 1.4 2.8 7.0
Mining investment(a) −2.5 −9.6 −26.7
Non-mining investment(a) −3.7 1.0 −4.7
Public demand 0.6 1.4 3.5
Exports 4.4 0.4 6.6
Imports −0.8 0.5 −2.0
Mining activity(a) 4.8 −3.7 0.7
Non-mining activity(a) 0.4 1.5 3.6
Nominal GDP 0.5 0.4 2.1
Real gross domestic income 0.5 0.1 0.6
Memo: Terms of trade −1.9 −3.4 −11.5
(a) RBA estimates

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 3.2: Housing Prices
Percentage change, seasonally adjusted
  APM
Stratified median		   Residex
Repeat sales
June
quarter 2016		 Year to June
quarter 2016		 June
quarter 2016		 Year to June
quarter 2016
Sydney 0.0 1.0   −0.1 3.7
Melbourne 3.2 8.6   −1.3 9.2
Brisbane 1.7 2.0   0.9 3.5
Adelaide −2.2 2.2   0.5 2.1
Perth 0.3 −3.4   −0.2 −3.8
Canberra 2.0 2.6   0.5 4.3
Hobart 1.4 4.6   −1.5 2.1
Darwin – –   −0.5 −4.5
Australia(a) 0.8 2.6   −0.1 4.1

(a) Capital cities only

Sources: APM; RBA; Residex
Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
  Three-month ended Year-ended
March 2016 June 2016 June 2016
Total credit 1.5 1.1 6.2
– Housing 1.5 1.4 6.7
– Owner-occupier 1.8 1.6 7.7
– Investor 1.1 1.1 5.0
– Personal −0.3 −0.3 −0.8
– Business 1.7 0.8 6.6
Broad money 2.1 1.1 6.0

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: APRA; RBA
Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
Prior to the August cash rate reduction
  Interest rate Change since April 2016 Change since July 2015
Per cent Basis points Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a)(d)
– Owner-occupier 5.39 −24 −7
– Investor 5.63 −24 17
– Package variable rate(b)(d)
– Owner-occupier 4.59 −24 −8
– Investor 4.83 −24 16
– Fixed rate(c)(d)
– Owner-occupier 4.27 −16 −39
– Investor 4.48 −18 −18
– Average outstanding rate(d) 4.64 −22 −6
Personal loans
– Variable rate(e) 11.32 −5 0
Small business
– Term loans variable rate(f) 6.50 −25 −10
– Overdraft variable rate(f) 7.38 −25 −10
– Fixed rate(c)(f) 5.38 −6 0
– Average outstanding rate(d) 5.51 −19 −20
Large business
Average outstanding rate(d) 3.76 −21 −20

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' 3-year fixed rates
(d) RBA estimates
(e) Weighted average of variable rate products
(f) Residentially secured, average of the major banks' advertised rates

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
  Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
June
quarter 2016		 March
quarter 2016		 June
quarter 2016		 March
quarter 2016
Consumer Price Index 0.4 −0.2 1.0 1.3
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.6 −0.1 – –
– Tradables 0.6 −0.6 0.0 0.6
–Tradables
(excl. volatile items and tobacco)(c)		 −0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5
– Non-tradables 0.6 0.2 1.6 1.7
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.5 0.2 1.7 1.7
Weighted median 0.4 0.1 1.3 1.3
CPI excl. volatile items(c) 0.4 0.3 1.6 1.7

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
  Year-ended
Jun 2016 Dec 2016 Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018 Dec 2018
GDP growth 3¼ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 3–4 3–4
CPI inflation 1.0 1½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½
Underlying inflation 1½ 1½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½
  Year-average
  2015/16 2016 2016/17 2017 2017/18 2018
GDP growth 3 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 3–4

(a) Data are quarterly; technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.76, TWI at 63.5 and Brent crude oil price at US$45 per barrel; shaded regions are historical data

Sources: ABS; RBA