Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2015 List of tables

Chapters

  • Table 1.1: Commodity Prices Growth
  • Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
  • Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
  • Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves
  • Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
  • Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
  • Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
  • Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
  • Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts
Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, 3-month-average prices, per cent
Since previous Statement Over the past year
Bulk commodities −6 −24
– Iron ore −6 −30
– Coking coal −5 −22
– Thermal coal −6 −10
Rural −6 −10
Base metals −11 −19
Gold −3 −2
Brent oil(b) −21 −50
RBA ICP −6 −21
– using spot prices for bulk commodities −6 −21

(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodities prices are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS; RBA
Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
Policy rate Per cent Most recent change
Euro area 0.05 ↓ Sep 14
Japan(a) na   na
United States(b) 0.125 ↓ Dec 08
Australia 2.00 ↓ May 15
Brazil 14.25 ↑ Jul 15
Canada 0.50 ↓ Jul 15
Chile 3.25 ↑ Oct 15
China(a) na   na
India 7.00 ↓ Sep 15
Indonesia 7.50 ↓ Feb 15
Israel 0.10 ↓ Feb 15
Malaysia 3.25 ↑ Jul 14
Mexico 3.00 ↓ Jun 14
New Zealand 2.75 ↓ Sep 15
Norway 0.75 ↓ Sep 15
Russia 11.00 ↓ Jul 15
South Africa 6.00 ↑ Jul 15
South Korea 1.50 ↓ Jun 15
Sweden −0.35 ↓ Jul 15
Switzerland(b) −0.75 ↓ Jan 15
Thailand 1.50 ↓ Apr 15
Turkey 7.50 ↓ Feb 15
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09

(a) The Bank of Japan's main operating target is currently the money base; China does not have an official policy rate
(b) Midpoint of target range

Sources: Central banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Over 2014 2015 to date
United States – S&P 500 11 2
Euro area – STOXX 2 12
United Kingdom – FTSE −3 −2
Japan – Nikkei 7 8
Canada – TSE 300 7 −7
Australia – ASX 200 1 −3
China – MSCI All China 28 3
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia 5 −2
– Latin America −4 −4
– Emerging Europe −8 4
– World 7 2

Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over 2014 2015 to date
Brazilian real 12 44
Malaysian ringgit 7 23
South African rand 10 21
New Zealand dollar 5 18
Australian dollar 9 14
Canadian dollar 9 13
Mexican peso 13 12
European euro 14 11
Swedish krona 21 11
Indonesian rupiah 2 9
Thai baht 1 8
Singapore dollar 5 6
Philippine peso 1 5
Indian rupee 2 4
South Korean won 4 4
New Taiwan dollar 6 3
Chinese renminbi 2 2
Japanese yen 14 2
UK pound sterling 6 1
Swiss franc 11 0
TWI 9 8

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
Percentage change since Level
End December 2014 End June 2015 US$ equivalent (billions)
China −9 −5 3,514
Taiwan(b) 2 1 426
South Korea 1 −2 360
Brazil −1 −2 352
Hong Kong 5 1 331
India 11 −1 328
Russia −5 3 312
Singapore −2 −1 249
Mexico −7 −7 172
Thailand −1 −3 147
Turkey −6 0 99
Indonesia −9 −6 96
Malaysia −19 −11 86

(a) Data to end September for China, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Mexico, Thailand and Indonesia; to 15 October for Malaysia; to 23 October for India, Russia and Turkey; to end October for Brazil
(b) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; IMF; RBA
Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over 2014 2015 to date
Malaysian ringgit −2 8
South African rand 1 6
New Zealand dollar −4 4
Canadian dollar 0 −1
European euro 4 −3
Indonesian rupiah −7 −4
Thai baht −8 −5
Singapore dollar −4 −7
Indian rupee −6 −9
South Korean won −5 −9
Chinese renminbi −6 −11
Japanese yen 4 −11
UK pound sterling −3 −11
US dollar −8 −12
Swiss franc 2 −13
TWI −3 −9

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Year average, per cent
2014/15 2013/14
GDP 2.3 2.5
Domestic final demand 0.7 1.3
– Private demand(a) 0.8 1.6
– Consumption 2.5 2.6
– Dwelling investment 8.3 5.1
– Mining investment(a) −17.3 −8.5
– Non-mining investment(a) 1.1 −0.1
– Public demand(a) 0.0 0.4
Change in inventories(b) 0.2 −0.2
Exports 6.5 5.8
Imports −0.1 −1.8
Nominal GDP 1.6 3.9
Real gross domestic income 0.0 1.7

(a) RBA estimates
(b) Contribution to GDP growth

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
Three-month ended Year-ended
June 2015 September 2015 September 2015
Total credit 1.3 2.0 6.7
– Housing 1.8 1.9 7.5
– Owner-occupier 1.2 1.8 5.8
– Investor 2.7 2.0 10.4
– Personal 0.1 0.2 0.5
– Business 0.6 2.5 6.3
Broad money 1.5 1.5 6.4

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
Interest rate Per cent Change since end January 2015 Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a)(d)(e)
– Owner-occupier 5.63 −30
– Investor 5.90 −3
– Package variable rate(b)(d)(e)
– Owner-occupier 4.83 −25
– Investor 5.11 3
– Fixed rate(c)(d)
– Owner-occupier 4.50 −58
– Investor 4.82 −27
– Average outstanding rate(d)(e) 4.89 −28
Personal loans
– Variable rate(f) 11.57 11
Small business
– Term loans variable rate(g) 6.60 −50
– Overdraft variable rate(g) 7.47 −50
– Fixed rate(c)(g) 5.38 −36
– Average outstanding rate(d) 5.66 −57
Large business
Average outstanding rate(d) 3.87 −66

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' 3-year fixed rates
(d) RBA estimates
(e) Reflects announced pricing changes effective in November
(f) Weighted average of variable rate products
(g) Residentially secured, average of the major banks' advertised rates

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
September quarter 2015 June quarter 2015 September quarter 2015 June quarter 2015
Consumer Price Index 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.5
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.1 0.8 – –
– Tradables −0.2 1.1 −0.3 −0.3
– Tradables (excl volatile items and tobacco)(c) −0.1 −0.2 0.2 −0.2
– Non-tradables 0.4 0.7 2.6 2.6
– Non-tradables (excl utilities) 0.5 0.7 2.7 2.9
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.3 0.6 2.1 2.2
Weighted median 0.3 0.5 2.2 2.4
CPI excl volatile items(c) 0.2 0.5 2.1 2.0

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
June 2015 Dec 2015 June 2016 Dec 2016 June 2017 Dec 2017
GDP growth 2.0 2¼ 2–3 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾ 3–4
CPI inflation 1.5 1¾ 1½–2½ 2–3 2–3 2–3
Underlying inflation 2¼ 2 1½–2½ 2–3 2–3 2–3
Year-average
2014/15 2015 2015/16 2016 2016/17 2017
GDP growth 2.3 2¼ 2¼ 2–3 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.72, TWI at 61 and Brent crude oil price at US$52 per barrel

Sources: ABS; RBA