Statement on Monetary Policy – May 2015 List of tables

Chapters

Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, 3-month-average prices, per cent
Since
previous
Statement		 Over the past year
Bulk commodities −10 −31
– Iron ore −15 −45
– Coking coal −4 −2
– Thermal coal −4 −11
Rural −3 −4
Base metals −1 6
Gold 2 1
Brent oil(b) −5 −46
RBA ICP −5 −20
– using spot prices for bulk commodities −7 −21

(a) Prices from the RBA index of commodity prices (ICP); bulk commodities prices are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS; RBA
Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
Policy rate
 		 Most recent
change		 Cumulative change
in current phase(a)
Per cent Basis points
Euro area 0.05 ↓ Sep 14 −145
Japan(b) na   na  
United States(c) 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 −512.5
Australia 2.00 ↓ May 15 −275
Brazil 13.25 ↑ Apr 15 600
Canada 0.75 ↓ Jan 15 −25
Chile 3.00 ↓ Oct 14 −225
China(b) na   na  
India 7.50 ↓ Mar 15 −50
Indonesia 7.50 ↓ Feb 15 −25
Israel 0.10 ↓ Feb 15 −315
Malaysia 3.25 ↑ Jul 14 125
Mexico 3.00 ↓ Jun 14 −525
New Zealand 3.50 ↑ Jul 14 100
Norway 1.25 ↓ Dec 14 −100
Russia 12.50 ↓ Apr 15 −450
South Africa 5.75 ↑ Jul 14 75
South Korea 1.75 ↓ Mar 15 −150
Sweden −0.25 ↓ Mar 15 −225
Switzerland(c) −0.75 ↓ Jan 15 −350
Thailand 1.50 ↓ Apr 15 −200
Turkey 7.50 ↓ Feb 15 −250
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 −525

(a) Current rate relative to most recent trough or peak
(b) The Bank of Japan's main operating target is currently the money base; China does not have an official policy rate
(c) Midpoint of target range

Sources: Central Banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Over 2014 2015 to date
United States – S&P 500 11 1
Euro area – STOXX 2 14
United Kingdom – FTSE −3 6
Japan – Nikkei 7 12
Canada – TSE 300 7 3
Australia – ASX 200 1 5
China – MSCI All China 28 27
MSCI indices    
– Emerging Asia 5 10
– Latin America −4 8
– Emerging Europe −8 12
– World 7 5

Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over 2014 2015 to date
Brazilian real 12 15
European euro 14 7
Swedish krona 21 5
Indonesian rupiah 2 5
New Zealand dollar 5 4
Mexican peso 13 4
South African rand 10 4
Canadian dollar 9 4
Australian dollar 9 3
UK pound sterling 6 2
Malaysian ringgit 7 2
Thai baht 1 1
Indian rupee 2 1
Chinese renminbi 2 0
Japanese yen 14 0
Singapore dollar 5 0
Philippine peso 1 0
South Korean won 4 −1
New Taiwan dollar 6 −3
Swiss franc 11 −8
TWI 9 2

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
Percentage change since: Level
End
June 2014		 End
December 2014		 US$ equivalent
(billions)
China −7 −3 3,730
Taiwan(b) −1 0 418
Brazil −2 0 356
South Korea −1 0 354
Hong Kong 3 1 321
India 11 8 320
Russia −29 −10 296
Singapore −10 −3 247
Mexico 3 2 187
Thailand −7 0 148
Indonesia 4 0 105
Turkey −8 −4 101
Malaysia −20 −10 96
Ukraine −41 37 9

(a) Data to end March for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Ukraine; to 15 April for Malaysia; to 24 April for India, Russia and Turkey; and to 30 April for Brazil and Taiwan
(b) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; Central Banks; IMF; RBA
Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over 2014 2015 to date
European euro 4 4
Indonesian rupiah −7 3
New Zealand dollar −4 1
South African rand 1 1
Canadian dollar 0 1
UK pound sterling −3 0
Malaysian ringgit −2 −1
Thai baht −8 −1
Indian rupee −6 −2
US dollar −8 −2
Chinese renminbi −6 −3
Japanese yen 4 −3
Singapore dollar −4 −3
South Korean won −5 −3
Swiss franc 2 −10
TWI −3 −2

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
December
quarter 2014		 September
quarter 2014		 Year to December
quarter 2014
GDP 0.5 0.4 2.5
Consumption 0.9 0.6 2.8
Dwelling investment 2.5 −1.2 8.1
Mining investment(a) −4.8 −5.0 −13.3
Non-mining investment(a) 1.9 0.6 2.0
Public demand 0.3 −1.0 0.0
Exports 1.0 3.6 7.2
Imports −2.5 −0.7 −2.6
Nominal GDP 0.6 −0.1 1.7
Real gross domestic income 0.2 −0.4 0.1

(a) RBA estimates

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
Three-month-ended Year-ended
December 2014 March 2015 March 2015
Total credit 1.6 1.6 6.2
– Housing 1.8 1.8 7.3
– Owner-occupier 1.5 1.5 5.8
– Investor 2.6 2.4 10.4
– Personal 0.1 −0.2 0.9
– Business 1.5 1.6 5.3
Broad money 1.6 2.0 7.8

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
Prior to the May cash rate reduction
Level at 4 May 2015 Per cent Change since end January 2015 Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a) 5.67 −26
– Package variable rate(b) 4.82 −26
– Fixed rate(c) 4.74 −40
– Average outstanding rate(d) 5.04 −21
Personal loans
– Variable rate(e) 11.36 −4
Small business
– Term loans variable rate(f) 6.85 −25
– Overdraft variable rate(f) 7.72 −25
– Fixed rate(c),(f) 5.37 −37
– Average outstanding rate(d) 5.94 −24
Large business
Average outstanding rate(d)
(variable rate and bill funding)		 4.11 −31

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' 5-year fixed rates
(d) RBA estimates
(e) Weighted average of variable rate products
(f) Residentially secured; average of the major banks' advertised rates

Sources: ABS; APRA; CANSTAR; RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
March
quarter 2015		 December
quarter 2014		 March
quarter 2015		 December
quarter 2014
Consumer Price Index 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.7
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.3 0.3 – –
– Tradables −0.6 −0.6 −0.9 0.7
– Tradables (excl volatile items and tobacco)(c) 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.0
– Non-tradables 0.7 0.7 2.6 2.3
– Non-tradables (excl utilities) 0.7 0.8 3.0 2.6
Selected underlying measures        
Trimmed mean 0.6 0.6 2.3 2.2
Weighted median 0.6 0.7 2.4 2.4
CPI excl volatile items(c) 0.7 0.6 2.3 2.1

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are automotive fuel, fruit and vegetables

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
Dec 2014 June 2015 Dec 2015 June 2016 Dec 2016 June 2017
GDP growth 2.5 2 2½ 2½−3½ 2¾−3¾ 2¾−4¼
Non-farm GDP growth 2.6 2¼ 2½ 2½−3½ 2¾−3¾ 2¾−4¼
CPI inflation(b) 1.7 1½ 2½ 2−3 2−3 2−3
Underlying inflation(b) 2¼ 2¼ 2½ 1¾−2¾ 1¾−2¾ 1¾−2¾
Year-average
2014 2014/15 2015 2015/16 2016 2016/17
GDP growth 2.7 2¼ 2¼ 2−3 2½−3½ 2½−4

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.80, TWI at 65 and Brent crude oil price at US$70 per barrel
(b) Based on current legislation

Sources: ABS; RBA