Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2015 List of tables

Chapters

  • Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth
  • Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
  • Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
  • Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves
  • Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
  • Table 4.1: Long-term Bond Issuance by the State Treasury Corporations
  • Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
  • Table 4.3: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
  • Table 4.4: Equity Markets
  • Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
  • Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
  • Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

Boxes

  • Table C1: World Energy Trade Balances and Energy Use
  • Table C2: Australia's Energy Trade Balance
Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, 3-month-average prices, per cent
Since
previous
Statement		 Contribution
to change since
previous Statement(b)		 Over the past year
Bulk commodities −6 −3.5 −34
– Iron ore −12 −3.9 −45
– Coking coal 4 0.6 −12
– Thermal coal −2 −0.2 −20
Rural 2 0.3 4
Base metals −3 −0.2 6
Gold 1 0.1 4
Brent oil(c) −35 −2.0 −44
RBA ICP −5 – −20
– using spot prices for bulk commodities −5 – −20

(a) Prices from the RBA index of commodity prices (ICP); bulk commodities prices are spot prices
(b) Contributions (in percentage points) do not sum to total change in RBA ICP because not all components are included in the table
(c) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS Energy Publishing; RBA
Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
Policy rate
 		 Most recent
change		 Cumulative change
in current phase(a)
Per cent Basis points
Euro area 0.05 ↓ Sep 14 −145
Japan(b) na   na  
United States(c) 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 −512.5
Australia 2.25 ↓ Feb 15 −250
Brazil 12.25 ↑ Jan 15 500
Canada 0.75 ↓ Jan 15 −25
Chile 3.00 ↓ Oct 14 −225
China(b) na   na  
India 7.75 ↓ Jan 15 −25
Indonesia 7.75 ↑ Nov 14 200
Israel 0.25 ↓ Aug 14 −300
Malaysia 3.25 ↑ Jul 14 125
Mexico 3.00 ↓ Jun 14 −525
New Zealand 3.50 ↑ Jul 14 100
Norway 1.25 ↓ Dec 14 −100
Russia 15.00 ↓ Jan 15 −200
South Africa 5.75 ↑ Jul 14 75
South Korea 2.00 ↓ Oct 14 −125
Sweden 0.00 ↓ Oct 14 −200
Switzerland(c) −0.75 ↓ Jan 15 −350
Taiwan 1.875 ↑ Jun 11 62.5
Thailand 2.00 ↓ Mar 14 −150
Turkey 7.75 ↓ Jan 15 −225
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 −525

(a) Current rate relative to most recent trough or peak
(b) The Bank of Japan's main operating target is currently the money base; China does not have an official policy rate
(c) Midpoint of target range

Sources: Central Banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Over 2014 Year to date
United States – S&P 500 11 0
Euro area – STOXX 2 9
United Kingdom – FTSE −3 4
Japan – Nikkei 7 1
Canada – TSE 300 7 2
Australia – ASX 200 1 7
China – MSCI All China 28 0
MSCI indices    
– Emerging Asia 5 3
– Latin America −4 −2
– Emerging Europe −8 7
– World 7 1

Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over 2014 Since end 2014
Russian rouble 76 17
Canadian dollar 9 8
European euro 14 6
Swedish krona 21 6
New Zealand dollar 5 5
Australian dollar 9 5
Brazilian real 12 4
Malaysian ringgit 7 2
UK pound sterling 6 2
Indonesian rupiah 2 2
Singapore dollar 5 2
Norwegian krone 23 2
Chinese renminbi 2 1
Mexican peso 13 0
South Korean won 4 −1
Thai baht 1 −1
South African rand 10 −1
Japanese yen 14 −2
Indian rupee 2 −2
Swiss franc 11 −7
TWI 9 1

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
Percentage change since: Level
End
December 2013		 End
September 2014		 US$ equivalent
(billions)
China 1 −1 3,843
Taiwan(b) 1 0 419
Brazil 4 0 363
South Korea 5 −1 352
Russia −30 −20 317
Hong Kong 4 0 316
India 11 3 298
Mexico 9 2 184
Thailand −6 −3 148
Turkey 0 −1 109
Indonesia 14 1 106
Malaysia −18 −14 100
Argentina 3 15 26
Ukraine −65 −55 7

(a) Data to end December for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Mexico, Taiwan, Thailand and Ukraine; to 15 January for Malaysia; to 23 January for India, Russia and Turkey; to end January for South Korea; and to 3 February for Argentina and Brazil
(b) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; IMF; RBA
Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over 2014 Since end 2014
Canadian dollar 0 3
European euro 4 1
New Zealand dollar −4 0
Malaysian ringgit −2 −2
UK pound sterling −3 −2
Indonesian rupiah −7 −3
Singapore dollar −4 −3
Chinese renminbi −6 −4
US dollar −8 −5
South Korean won −5 −5
Thai baht −8 −6
South African rand 1 −6
Japanese yen 4 −7
Indian rupee −6 −7
Swiss franc 2 −12
TWI −3 −5

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
September
quarter 2014		 June
quarter 2014		 Year to September
quarter 2014
GDP 0.3 0.5 2.7
Consumption 0.5 0.8 2.5
Dwelling investment −0.9 1.0 6.8
Mining investment(a) −5.0 1.5 −15.2
Non-mining investment(a) 2.2 −0.8 2.1
Public demand −1.2 0.8 0.9
Exports 2.8 −1.5 7.1
Imports −0.9 2.4 −0.8
Nominal GDP −0.1 0.3 2.7
Real gross domestic income −0.4 −0.3 0.8

(a) RBA estimates

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 4.1: Long-term Bond Issuance by the State Treasury Corporations(a)
Issuer
 		 Outstanding as at December 2014 $ billion 2013/14 issuance $ billion 2014/15 issuance to January 2015 $ billion 2014/15 indicative target $ billion
New South Wales 64 14 5 6
Queensland 83 15 6 7
South Australia 16 4 3 4
Tasmania 4 0 1 1
Victoria 34 9 1 3
Western Australia 32 11 4 9
Total(b) 240 55 19 29

(a) Securities with an original term to maturity of greater than one year; figures are rounded to the nearest whole number; projections are based on the latest funding program forecasts for gross term issuance less prior year surplus funding
(b) Includes ACT and NT bonds

Sources: RBA; State Treasury Corporations
Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
Three-month ended Year-ended
September 2014 December 2014 December 2014
Total credit 1.3 1.6 5.9
– Housing 1.7 1.9 7.1
– Owner-occupier 1.3 1.5 5.6
– Investor 2.5 2.7 10.1
– Personal 0.6 0.1 0.9
– Business 0.8 1.4 4.8
Broad money 2.0 1.5 7.7

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Table 4.3: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
Prior to the February cash rate reduction
Level at 2 February 2015 Per cent Change over 2014 Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a) 5.93 0
– Package variable rate(b) 5.08 −2
– Fixed rate(c) 5.08 −20
– Average outstanding rate(d) 5.25 −15
Personal loans
– Variable rate(d), (e) 11.76 5
Small business
– Term loans variable rate(f) 7.10 0
– Overdraft variable rate(f) 7.97 0
– Fixed rate(c), (f) 5.78 −45
– Average outstanding rate(d) 6.18 −28
Large business
Average outstanding rate(d)
(variable rate and bill funding)		 4.39 −17

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' 3-year fixed rates
(d) RBA estimate
(e) Weighted average of variable rate products
(f) Residentially secured, average of the major banks' advertised rates

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar; RBA
Table 4.4: Equity Markets
Percentage change
2013 2014 2015 to date
Australia (ASX 200) 15.1 1.1 6.8
– Resources −2.9 −19.0 6.3
– Financials 23.6 6.5 8.0
– Other 17.7 6.1 5.5
United States (S&P 500) 29.6 11.4 −0.6

Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
December
quarter 2014		 September
quarter 2014		 December
quarter 2014		 September
quarter 2014
Consumer Price Index 0.2 0.5 1.7 2.3
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.3 0.1 – –
– Tradables −0.5 0.0 0.7 2.0
– Tradables (excl volatile items and tobacco)(c) 0.0 −0.6 0.0 0.4
– Non-tradables 0.7 0.3 2.3 2.4
– Non-tradables (excl utilities) 0.7 0.7 2.6 2.8
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.7 0.3 2.2 2.4
Weighted median 0.7 0.5 2.3 2.6
CPI excl volatile items(c) 0.6 0.1 2.1 2.1

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2015 Year to December 2016
August
2014		 November
2014		 February
2015		 November
2014		 February
2015
Market economists 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.8 2.7
Union officials 3.0 2.6 2.0 2.5 2.3

Sources: Employment Research Australia; RBA
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
Dec
2014		 June
2015		 Dec
2015		 June
2016		 Dec
2016		 June
2017
GDP growth 2½ 2¼ 2¼–3¼ 2¾–3¾ 3–4 3–4½
Non-farm GDP growth 2¾ 2¼ 2¼–3¼ 2¾–3¾ 3–4 3–4½
CPI inflation(b) 1.7 1¼ 2–3 2¼–3¼ 2¼–3¼ 2¼–3¼
Underlying inflation(b) 2¼ 2¼ 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Year-average
2014 2014/15 2015 2015/16 2016 2016/17
GDP growth 2¾ 2¼ 1¾–2¾ 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾ 2¾–4¼

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.78, TWI at 64 and Brent crude oil price at US$59 per barrel
(b) Based on current legislation

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table C1: World Energy Trade Balances and Energy Use(a)
Net Oil Imports(b) Oil intensity of GDP(c) Net Energy Imports(d) Energy intensity of GDP(d)
Share of oil Consumption PPP-weighted Share of energy Consumption PPP-weighted
Per cent Index, world average =100 Per cent Index, world average =100
United States 27 128 15 101
Euro area 91 88 60 69
High-income Asian
economies(e)		 101 133 87 83
Middle-income Asian
economies(f)		 37 86 −29 79
China 56 70 11 146
India 77 58 28 91
Major trading partners(g) 65 104 33 109
Australia 51 115 −135 100

(a) The consumption and intensity measures capture oil or energy used as an input into the production of goods and services (including fuel used by households); they do not include exports of raw energy materials
(b) Volume of net imports of crude and refined oil products as a share of petroleum consumption; monthly 2014 data for the United States (to November), annual 2012 data for other OECD countries and annual 2010 data otherwise
(c) 2013 data
(d) 2012 data for Australia and the United States, 2011 data otherwise
(e) Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and South Korea
(f) Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand
(g) Aggregated using Australia's export shares

Sources: ABS; EIA; IMF; RBA; World Bank
Table C2: Australia's Energy Trade Balance
Per cent of nominal GDP
1990–1999 2000–2009 2010–2013 September
quarter 2014
Oil exports 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7
Oil imports 0.8 1.8 2.4 2.6
Net oil position −0.2 −0.9 −1.6 −1.9
Coal exports 1.5 2.2 2.9 2.3
Gas exports 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1
Net energy position 1.6 1.9 2.2 1.4