Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2014 List of tables

Chapters

  • Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth
  • Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
  • Table 2.2: Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund Asset Allocations
  • Table 2.3: Changes in International Share Prices
  • Table 2.4: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 2.5: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves
  • Table 2.6: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
  • Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
  • Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
  • Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
  • Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
  • Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts
Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, 3-month-average prices, per cent
Since previous Statement Over the past year
Bulk commodities −8 −31
– Iron ore −12 −38
– Coking coal 1 −21
– Thermal coal −5 −15
Rural −4 −2
Base metals 4 7
Gold −1 −6
Brent oil(b) −14 −15
RBA ICP −4 −16
– using spot prices for bulk commodities −4 −18

(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodities prices are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS Energy Publishing; RBA
Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
Policy rate Most recent change Cumulative change in current phase(a)
Per cent Basis points
Euro area 0.05 ↓ Sep 14 −145
Japan(b) na   na  
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 −512.5
Australia 2.50 ↓ Aug 13 −225
Brazil 11.25 ↑ Oct 14 400
Canada 1.00 ↑ Sep 10 75
Chile 3.00 ↓ Oct 14 −225
China(b) na   na  
India 8.00 ↑ Jan 14 75
Indonesia 7.50 ↑ Nov 13 175
Israel 0.25 ↓ Aug 14 −300
Malaysia 3.25 ↑ Jul 14 125
Mexico 3.00 ↓ Jun 14 −525
New Zealand 3.50 ↑ Jul 14 100
Norway 1.50 ↓ Mar 12 −75
Russia 9.50 ↑ Oct 14 400
South Africa 5.75 ↑ Jul 14 75
South Korea 2.00 ↓ Oct 14 −125
Sweden 0.00 ↓ Oct 14 −200
Switzerland 0.00 ↓ Aug 11 −275
Taiwan 1.875 ↑ Jun 11 62.5
Thailand 2.00 ↓ Mar 14 −150
Turkey 8.25 ↓ Jul 14 −175
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 −525

(a) Current rate relative to most recent trough or peak
(b) Since April 2013, the Bank of Japan's main operating target has been the money base. China does not have an official policy rate

Sources: Central Banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 2.2: Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund Asset Allocations
Per cent
Existing Target(a) Existing Allocation(a) Proposed Target
Domestic bonds 60 53 35
Domestic equities 12 17 25
International bonds 11 11 15
International equities 12 16 25

(a) Remaining allocation in short-term assets

Source: GPIF
Table 2.3: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Over 2013 Year to date
United States – S&P 500 30 9
Euro area – STOXX 20 −1
United Kingdom – FTSE 14 −3
Japan – Nikkei 57 4
Canada – TSE 300 10 7
Australia – ASX 200 15 3
China – MSCI All China 4 8
MSCI indices    
– Emerging Asia 3 4
– Latin America −7 3
– Emerging Europe −2 −2
– World 23 5

Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.4: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Since end January 2014 Since end June 2014
Brazilian real 4 14
Japanese yen 12 13
New Zealand dollar 5 13
Swedish krona 13 10
Australian dollar 2 10
European euro 8 10
Swiss franc 6 9
UK pound sterling 3 7
South Korean won 0 7
Canadian dollar 2 7
South African rand 0 5
Mexican peso 2 5
Malaysian ringgit 0 4
Singapore dollar 1 4
Philippine peso −1 3
Indonesian rupiah −1 2
New Taiwan dollar 1 2
Indian rupee −2 2
Thai baht −1 1
Chinese renminbi 1 −1
TWI 4 5

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Table 2.5: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
Percentage change since: Level
End December 2013 End June 2014 US$ equivalent (billions)
China 2 −3 3,890
Taiwan(b) 1 −1 421
Russia −16 −9 383
Brazil 4 0 364
South Korea 5 −1 355
Hong Kong 4 2 316
India 8 0 288
Thailand −4 −4 153
Malaysia −4 −2 117
Turkey 3 2 112
Indonesia 13 4 105
Argentina −9 −3 23

(a) Data to end September for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand; to 14 October for Malaysia; to 24 October for India, Russia and Turkey; and to 4 November for Argentina and Brazil
(b) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; Central Banks; IMF; RBA
Table 2.6: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Since January 2014
trough in TWI(a)		 Since end June 2014
Japanese yen 11 3
New Zealand dollar 5 3
European euro 8 0
Swiss franc 7 −1
UK pound sterling 2 −2
South Korean won −1 −2
Canadian dollar 2 −3
South African rand −1 −5
Malaysian ringgit −1 −5
Singapore dollar 0 −6
Indonesian rupiah −1 −7
Indian rupee −3 −7
Thai baht −1 −8
US dollar −1 −9
Chinese renminbi 0 −10
TWI 2 −5

(a) 24 January 2014

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth(a)
Year average, per cent
2013/14
GDP 2.5
Domestic final demand 1.2
– Private demand 0.9
– Consumption 2.2
– Dwelling investment 4.7
– Business investment(b) −4.8
– Public demand(b) 1.5
Change in inventories(c) −0.4
Gross national expenditure 0.8
Exports 5.8
Imports −2.1
Nominal GDP 4.1
Real gross domestic income 1.7

(a) Based on 2013/14 release of the annual national accounts, rather than the June quarter 2014 release
(b) Excludes net purchases of second-hand assets
(c) Contribution to GDP growth

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
Three-months ended Year-ended
June 2014 September 2014 September 2014
Total credit 1.6 1.3 5.4
– Housing 1.7 1.7 6.8
– Owner-occupier 1.3 1.3 5.5
– Investor 2.5 2.5 9.5
– Personal 0.4 0.6 1.0
– Business 1.6 0.7 3.8
Broad money 2.0 2.1 7.9

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: APRA; RBA
Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
Level at 5 November 2014 Change since end August 2013
Basis points Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a) 5.93 0
– Package variable rate(b) 5.08 −2
– Fixed rate(c) 5.08 −3
– Average outstanding rate 5.27 −19
Personal loans
– Variable rate(d) 11.66 −9
Small business (variable rates)
– Term loans(e) 7.10 0
– Overdraft(e) 7.97 0
Average outstanding rate 6.63 −17
Large business
Average outstanding rate (variable rate and bill funding) 4.50 −30

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' 3 year fixed rates
(d) Weighted average of variable rate products
(e) Residentially secured

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar; RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(a)
September quarter
2014		 June quarter
2014		 September quarter
2014		 June quarter
2014
Consumer Price Index 0.5 0.5 2.3 3.0
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.1 0.7 – –
– Tradables 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.9
– Tradables
(excl volatile items and tobacco)(c)		 −0.6 0.5 0.4 1.2
– Non-tradables 0.2 0.8 2.4 3.1
– Non-tradables (excl utilities) 0.7 0.8 2.8 2.9
Selected underlying measures        
Trimmed mean 0.4 0.7 2.5 2.8
Weighted median 0.6 0.6 2.6 2.6
CPI excl volatile items(c) 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.8

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2014 Year to December 2015
May
2014		 August
2014		 November
2014		 May
2014		 August
2014		 November
2014
Market economists 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.6 2.7
Union officials 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.6

Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
June 2014 Dec 2014 June 2015 Dec 2015 June 2016 Dec 2016
GDP growth 3.1 2½ 2–3 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾ 2¾–4¼
Non-farm GDP growth 3.3 2¾ 2–3 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾ 2¾–4¼
CPI inflation(b) 3.0 1¾ 1½–2½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½
Underlying inflation(b) 2¾ 2¼ 2–3 2¼–3¼ 2¼–3¼ 2¼–3¼
Year-average(c)
2013/14 2014 2014/15 2015 2015/16 2016
GDP growth 2.5 2¼–3¼ 2–3 2–3 2½–3½ 2½–4

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.86, TWI at 68 and Brent crude oil price at US$86 per barrel
(b) Based on current legislation
(c) Based on 2013/14 release of the annual national accounts, rather than the June quarter 2014 release

Sources: ABS; RBA