List of tables | Statement on Monetary Policy – May 2014

Statement on Monetary Policy – May 2014 List of tables

Table 1.1: Commodity Prices Growth^(a)

SDR, 3-month-average prices, per cent
	Since previous Statement	Over the past year
Bulk commodities	−14	−24
– Iron ore	−14	−23
– Coking coal	−14	−30
– Thermal coal	−11	−19
Rural	5	−6
Base metals	−1	−9
Gold	5	−17
Brent oil^(b)	−1	−0
RBA ICP	−3	−12
– Using spot prices for bulk commodities	−6	−16
(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodities are spot prices (b) In US dollars Sources: Bloomberg; IHS Energy Publishing; RBA

Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
	Policy rate Per cent		Most recent change	Cumulative change in current phase^(a) Basis points
Euro area	0.25	↓	Nov 13	−125
Japan^(b)	na		na
United States	0.125	↓	Dec 08	−512.5
Australia	2.50	↓	Aug 13	−225
Brazil	11.00	↑	Apr 14	375
Canada	1.00	↑	Sep 10	75
Chile	4.00	↓	Nov 14	−125
China^(b)	na		na
India	8.00	↑	Jan 14	75
Indonesia	7.50	↑	Nov 13	175
Israel	0.75	↓	Feb 14	−250
Malaysia	3.00	↑	May 11	100
Mexico	3.50	↓	Oct 13	−475
New Zealand	3.00	↑	Apr 14	50
Norway	1.50	↓	Mar 12	−75
Russia	7.50	↑	Apr 14	200
South Africa	5.50	↑	Jan 14	50
South Korea	0.75	↓	May 13	−75
Sweden	0.75	↓	Dec 13	−125
Switzerland	0.00	↓	Aug 11	−275
Taiwan	1.875	↑	Jun 11	62.5
Thailand	2.00	↓	Mar 14	−150
Turkey	10.00	↑	Jan 14	550
United Kingdom	0.50	↓	Mar 09	−525
	Current monthly asset purchases		Most recent change	Assets on balance sheet Per cent of GDP
United States	$45 billion		Apr 14	25.1
Japan	¥6 trillion		Apr 13	51.2
United Kingdom	0		Jul 12	24.3
(a) Current rate relative to most recent trough or peak (b) Since April 2013, the Bank of Japan's main operating target has been the money base; China does not have an official policy rate Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; central banks

Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies

Per cent
	Over 2013	Since end 2013
Chinese renminbi	−3	3
Canadian dollar	7	3
New Taiwan dollar	3	1
Swedish krona	−1	1
Philippine peso	8	0
South African rand	24	0
Mexican peso	1	−1
Thai baht	7	−1
Singapore dollar	3	−1
Malaysian ringgit	7	−1
European euro	−4	−1
Swiss franc	−3	−2
UK pound sterling	−2	−2
South Korean won	−1	−3
Indian rupee	13	−3
Japanese yen	21	−3
Australian dollar	17	−4
Indonesian rupiah	26	−5
New Zealand dollar	1	−5
Brazilian real	15	−6
TWI	3	0
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves^(a)
	Percentage change:		Level
	End April 2013 to end December 2013	2014 to date	US$ equivalent (billions) Most recent observation
China	8	3	3,948
Russia	−1	−6	426
Brazil	−5	2	356
South Korea	6	2	344
India	2	5	282
Thailand	−6	0	158
Turkey	−3	−2	107
Indonesia	−7	6	99
South Africa	1	−1	41
Argentina	−25	−10	22
Ukraine	−20	−34	12
(a) Data to end March for China, South Africa, South Korea and Thailand; 25 April for India, Russia and Turkey; end April for Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia and Ukraine Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; IMF; RBA; central banks

Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth

Per cent
	December quarter 2013	Year to December quarter 2013
GDP	0.8	2.8
Domestic final demand	0.1	1.2
– Private demand	−0.2	0.3
– Public demand	1.2	4.5
Change in inventories^(a)	0.2	−0.3
Gross national expenditure	0.3	0.9
Exports	2.4	6.5
Imports	−0.6	−4.6
Nominal GDP	1.6	4.8
Real gross domestic income	0.9	2.4
(a) Contribution to GDP growth Source: ABS

Table 3.2: Housing Price Growth
Per cent
	3 months to April 2014	3 months to January 2014	Year to April 2014
Australia	1.8	3.8	11.5
Sydney	3.6	3.7	16.8
Melbourne	0.8	5.3	11.7
Brisbane	2.2	1.7	6.6
Perth	0.6	1.5	7.6
Adelaide	2.3	1.7	3.7
Canberra	−0.4	0.9	1.3
Regional^(a)	−0.6	1.3	2.6
(a) Growth to March and December; detached houses only Sources: RBA; RP Data-Rismark

Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change^(a)
	Three-month ended December 2013	Three-month ended March 2014	Year-ended March 2014
Total credit	1.2	1.2	4.4
– Owner-occupier housing	1.3	1.3	4.9
– Investor housing	2.2	2.1	7.9
– Personal	0.1	−0.3	0.4
– Business	0.6	0.9	2.6
Broad money	1.7	1.9	6.5
(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted Sources: APRA; RBA

Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
Housing loans
	Level at 7 May 2014	Change since January 2014	Change since end October 2011
	Per cent	Basis points	Basis points
– Standard variable rate^(a)	5.93	0	−186
– Package variable rate^(b)	5.08	0	−195
– Fixed rate^(c)	5.20	−9	−131
Personal loans
– Standard variable rate	11.56	0	−85
Small business (variable rates)
– Term loans	7.10	0	−190
– Overdraft	7.97	0	−188
Average rate^(d)	6.71	−2	−192
Large business
Average rate^(d) (variable rate and bill funding)	4.58	−2	−245
(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates (b) Average of the major banks' discounted package variable rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans (c) Average of the major banks' 3-year fixed rates (d) Rates on outstanding business lending (includes discount) Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA

Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation

Per cent
Selected underlying measures
	Quarterly^(a)		Year-ended^(b)
	March quarter 2014	December quarter 2013	March quarter 2014	December quarter 2013
Consumer price index	0.6	0.8	2.9	2.7
Seasonally adjusted CPI	0.5	0.9	–	–
– Tradables	0.7	0.8	2.6	1.0
– Tradables (excl volatile items and tobacco)^(c)	−0.1	0.5	0.8	−0.1
– Non-tradables	0.4	0.9	3.1	3.7
Trimmed mean	0.5	0.9	2.6	2.6
Weighted median	0.6	0.9	2.7	2.5
CPI excl volatile items^(c)	0.4	0.9	2.7	2.6
(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS (b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median (c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations

Per cent
	Year to December 2014			Year to December 2015
	November 2013	February 2014	May 2014	February 2014	May 2014
Market economists	2.6	2.5	2.4	2.6	2.7
Union officials	2.5	2.8	3.0	2.8	2.9
Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts^(a)

Per cent
	2013	2013/14	2014	2014/15	2015	2015/16
	Year-ended
	Dec 2013	June 2014	Dec 2014	June 2015	Dec 2015	June 2016
GDP growth	2.8	3	2¾	2¼–3¼	2¾–3¾	2¾–4¼
Non-farm GDP growth	2.6	3	3	2½–3½	2¾–3¾	2¾–4¼
CPI inflation^(b)	2.7	3	2¾	2½–3½	2¼–3¼	2–3
Underlying inflation^(b)	2½	2¾	2½	2¼–3¼	2–3	2–3
	Year-average
GDP growth	2.4	2¾	3	2¼–3¼	2¼–3¼	2½–4
(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.93, TWI at 71 and Brent crude oil price at US$105 per barrel (b) Based on current legislation for the price of carbon Sources: ABS; RBA

Table B1: Lags between Cycle Turning Points(a)
Average number of quarters lag from turning point in GDP growth, 1998–2013
	Hours	Vacancies	Employment	Unemployment rate	Wages
Peak	+2	+2	+3	+1	+4
Trough	+1	+1	+1	+1	+3
(a) Positive figures denote that the peak or trough in the labour market variable lags the peak or trough in activity; peaks and troughs are identified on the basis of the business cycle component of each series, which is extracted by taking the difference between the 7-quarter Henderson trend (which removes short cycles) and the 33-quarter Henderson trend (which removes long cycles); all variables are expressed in quarterly growth rates apart from the unemployment rate, which is expressed in quarterly changes Sources: ABS; RBA