Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2014 List of tables

  • Table 1.1: Commodity Prices Growth
  • Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
  • Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
  • Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves
  • Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
  • Table 4.1: Term Borrowing by State Authorities
  • Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
  • Table 4.3: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
  • Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
  • Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
  • Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts
Table 1.1: Commodity Prices Growth(a)
SDR, 3-month-average prices, per cent
Since
previous
Statement		 Over
the past
year
Bulk commodities −2 −7
– Iron ore −2 −4
– Coking coal −7 −15
– Thermal coal 4 −9
Rural −3 −11
Base metals −2 −11
Gold −8 −27
Brent oil(b) −2 −2
RBA ICP −1 −6
– using spot prices for bulk commodities −2 −9

(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodities prices are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS Energy Publishing; RBA
Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
Policy rate Per cent Most
recent
change		 Cumulative change
in current phase(a) Basis points
Euro area 0.25 ↓ Nov 13 −125
Japan(b) na   na  
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 −512.5
Australia 2.50 ↓ Aug 13 −225
Brazil 10.50 ↑ Jan 14 325
Canada 1.00 ↑ Sep 10 75
Chile 4.50 ↓ Nov 13 −75
China 6.00 ↓ Jul 12 −56
India 8.00 ↑ Jan 14 75
Indonesia 7.50 ↑ Nov 13 175
Israel 1.00 ↓ Sep 13 −225
Malaysia 3.00 ↑ May 11 100
Mexico 3.50 ↓ Oct 13 −475
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Mar 11 −50
Norway 1.50 ↓ Mar 12 −75
Russia 5.50 ↑ Sep 12 25
South Africa 5.50 ↑ Jan 14 50
South Korea 2.50 ↓ May 13 −75
Sweden 0.75 ↓ Dec 13 −125
Switzerland 0.00 ↓ Aug 11 −275
Taiwan 1.875 ↑ Jun 11 62.5
Thailand 2.25 ↓ Nov 13 −125
Turkey 10.00 ↑ Jan 14 550
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 −525
Current monthly
asset purchases		 Most recent
change		 Assets on balance sheet
Per cent of GDP
United States $65 billion   Jan 14 24.2
Japan ¥6 trillion   Apr 13 48.4
United Kingdom 0   Jul 12 24.5

(a) Current rate relative to most recent trough or peak
(b) Since April 2013, the Bank of Japan's main operating target has been the money base

Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; central banks
Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Over 2013 Since end 2013
United States
– S&P 500 30 −5
Euro area
– STOXX 20 −4
United Kingdom
– FTSE 14 −4
Japan
– Nikkei 57 −13
Canada
– TSE 300 10 −1
Australia
– ASX 200 15 −5
China
– China A −7 −4
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia 3 −6
– Latin America −7 −8
– Emerging Europe −2 −5
– World 23 −5

Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over 2013 Since end 2013
South African rand 24 6
Canadian dollar 7 4
South Korean won −1 3
Philippine peso 8 2
New Taiwan dollar 3 2
Mexican peso 1 2
Brazilian real 15 2
European euro −4 2
UK pound sterling −2 2
Swedish krona −1 1
Swiss franc −3 1
Malaysian ringgit 7 1
Indian rupee 13 1
Singapore dollar 3 0
Thai baht 7 0
Indonesian rupiah 26 0
Chinese renminbi −3 0
Australian dollar 17 0
New Zealand dollar 1 0
Japanese yen 21 −4
TWI 3 1

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves
As at end December 2013
Percentage change since: Level US$ equivalent
(billions)
End April End October
China 8 2 3,821
Russia(a) −4 −4 439
Brazil(b) −5 −1 351
South Korea(b) 6 2 338
India 2 5 268
Thailand −6 −3 158
Malaysia −4 −2 122
Turkey(a) −10 −9 101
Indonesia −7 3 93
South Africa 1 1 42
Argentina(b) −34 −20 22

(a) As at 24 January
(b) As at end January

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; IMF; RBA
Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over 2013 Since end 2013
South African rand 6 6
Canadian dollar −8 4
South Korean won −15 3
European euro −18 1
UK pound sterling −16 1
Swiss franc −16 1
Malaysian ringgit −8 1
Indian rupee −3 1
Singapore dollar −11 0
Thai baht −8 0
Indonesian rupiah 8 0
Chinese renminbi −17 0
US dollar −14 0
New Zealand dollar −13 0
Japanese yen 4 −4
TWI −11 0

Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
September quarter 2013 Year to September quarter 2013
GDP 0.6 2.3
Domestic final demand 0.4 0.9
– Private demand 0.5 0.8
– Public demand 0.0 1.3
Change in inventories(a) −0.5 −0.9
Gross national expenditure −0.1 0.1
Exports 0.3 6.1
Imports −3.3 −3.7
Nominal GDP 0.6 3.6
Real gross domestic income −0.1 1.5

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS
Table 4.1: Term Borrowing by State Authorities
Issuer 2012/13 2013/14
Issuance
$ billion		 Issuance as at end December 2013
$ billion		 Indicative target
$ billion
New South Wales 6.9 2.8 5.3
Queensland 13.7 3.0 6.1
South Australia ~4 ~2 ~3
Tasmania 1.0 0 0.4
Victoria 7.2 3.5 6.1
Western Australia 8.6 ~4 6.1
Total 41 15 27

~ Indicates an approximation

Sources: state borrowing authorities
Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
Three-month ended Year-ended
Sep 2013 Dec 2013 Dec 2013
Total credit 0.9 1.2 3.9
– Owner-occupier housing 1.1 1.4 4.6
– Investor housing 1.7 2.2 7.1
– Personal 0.4 0.1 0.9
– Business 0.4 0.5 1.7
Broad money 1.1 1.7 5.8

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: APRA; RBA
Table 4.3: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
Level at
31 January 2014		 Change since
October 2013		 Change since end
October 2011
Per cent Basis points Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a) 5.93 0 −186
– Package variable rate(b) 5.10 2 −195
– Fixed rate(c) 5.29 5 −123
Personal loans
– Standard variable rate 11.58 2 −96
Small business (variable rates)
Residentially secured, advertised
– Term loans 7.10 0 −190
– Overdraft 7.97 0 −188
Average rate(d) 6.80 0 −183
Large business
Average rate(d)
(variable rate and bill funding)		 4.67 1 −236

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package variable rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' 3-year fixed rates
(d) Rates on outstanding business lending (includes discount)

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
December quarter 2013 September quarter 2013 December quarter 2013 September quarter 2013
Consumer Price Index 0.8 1.2 2.7 2.2
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.9 1.0 – –
– Tradables 0.7 1.1 1.0 −0.1
– Tradables
(excl volatile items and tobacco)(c)		 0.5 0.3 −0.1 −1.1
– Non-tradables 0.9 0.9 3.7 3.6
Selected underlying measures        
Trimmed mean 0.9 0.7 2.6 2.3
Weighted median 0.9 0.6 2.6 2.4
CPI excl volatile items(c) 0.8 0.8 2.6 2.4
CPI excl volatile items and tobacco(c) 0.8 0.7 2.4 2.2

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2014 Year to December 2015
August
2013		 November
2013		 February
2014		 November
2013		 February
2014
Market economists 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6
Union officials 2.6 2.5 2.8 – 2.8

Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
Dec
2013		 June
2014		 Dec
2014		 June
2015		 Dec
2015		 June
2016
GDP growth 2½ 2¾ 2¼–3¼ 2½–3½ 3–4 3–4½
Non-farm GDP growth 2½ 2¾ 2¼–3¼ 2½–3½ 3–4 3–4½
CPI inflation(b) 2.7 3¼ 2¼–3¼ 2¼–3¼ 2–3 2–3
Underlying inflation(b) 2½ 3 2¼–3¼ 2¼–3¼ 2–3 2–3
Year-average
  2013 2013/14 2014 2014/15 2015 2015/16
GDP growth 2¼ 2½ 2¼–3¼ 2¼–3¼ 2½–3½ 3–4

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.89, TWI at 69 and Brent crude oil price at US$104 per barrel
(b) Based on current legislation for the price of carbon

Sources: ABS; RBA