Statement on Monetary Policy – May 2013 List of tables

  • Table 1.1: Commodity Prices Growth
  • Table 2.1: Holders of Japanese Government Bonds
  • Table 2.2: Policy Rates
  • Table 2.3: Changes in International Share Prices
  • Table 2.4: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 2.5: Selected Asian Foreign Currency Reserves
  • Table 2.6: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
  • Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
  • Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
  • Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Lending Rates
  • Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
  • Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
  • Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts
Table 1.1: Commodity Prices Growth(a)
SDR, per cent
Change
since
previous
Statement		 Change
over
the past
year
Bulk commodities −13 −13
– Iron ore −15 −7
– Coking coal −7 −27
– Thermal coal −7 −10
Rural −3 5
– Beef −1 0
– Cotton 8 3
– Wheat −2 29
– Wool −14 −16
Base metals −10 −7
– Aluminium −9 −6
– Copper −10 −10
– Lead −15 −1
– Nickel −16 −11
– Zinc −13 −5
Gold −10 −6
Brent oil(b) −11 −7
RBA ICP −1 −6
– using spot prices for bulk commodities −10 −9

(a) RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP) components; prices of bulk commodities are based on spot price movements
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 2.1: Holders of Japanese Government Bonds
Per cent of stock outstanding, end 2012(a)
Insurance companies 23
Banks 21
Japan Post Bank 17
Pension funds 12
Bank of Japan 12
Other financial companies 5
Foreign 4
Households 3
Other 2

(a) Figures do not sum due to rounding

Sources: Bank of Japan; Japan Post Bank
Table 2.2: Policy Rates
Current level Per cent Most
recent
change		 Change from
2011 peak Basis points
Euro area 0.50 ↓ May 13 −100
Japan(a) 0.10 ↓ Oct 10 –
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 –
Australia 2.75 ↓ May 13 −200
Brazil 7.50 ↑ Apr 13 −500
Canada 1.00 ↑ Sep 10 –
China 6.00 ↓ Jul 12 −56
India 7.25 ↓ May 13 −125
Indonesia 5.75 ↓ Feb 12 −100
Israel 1.75 ↓ Dec 12 −150
Malaysia 3.00 ↑ May 11 –
Mexico 4.00 ↓ Mar 13 −50
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Mar 11 −50
Norway 1.50 ↓ Mar 12 −75
Russia 8.25 ↑ Sep 12 –
South Africa 5.00 ↓ Jul 12 −50
South Korea 2.50 ↓ May 13 −75
Sweden 1.00 ↓ Dec 12 −100
Switzerland 0.00 ↓ Aug 11 −25
Taiwan 1.875 ↑ Jun 11 –
Thailand 2.75 ↓ Oct 12 −75
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 –

(a) Since April 2013, the Bank of Japan's main operating target has been the money base

Source: central banks
Table 2.3: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Over
2012		 Since end
2012
United States
– Dow Jones 7 15
– S&P 500 13 14
– NASDAQ 16 13
Euro area
– STOXX 16 7
United Kingdom
– FTSE 6 12
Japan
– Nikkei 24 37
Canada
– TSE 300 4 1
Australia
– ASX 200 15 12
China
– China A 3 −1
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia 15 2
– Latin America 9 −3
– Emerging Europe 13 1
– World 13 13

Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.4: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over
2012		 Since end
2012
Japanese yen 13 14
South African rand 5 6
UK pound sterling −4 5
Australian dollar −2 2
Swiss franc −2 2
South Korean won −8 2
Canadian dollar −3 1
New Taiwan dollar −4 1
Singapore dollar −6 0
European euro −2 0
Swedish krona −6 0
Indonesian rupiah 8 −1
Philippine peso −6 −1
Indian rupee 3 −1
New Zealand dollar −6 −1
Chinese renminbi −1 −1
Brazilian real 10 −2
Malaysian ringgit −3 −3
Thai baht −3 −4
Mexican peso −8 −7
Majors TWI 0 3
Broad TWI −1 1

Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.5: Selected Asian Foreign Currency Reserves
As at end April 2013
Change since end 2012 Level
US$ equivalent
(billions)		 Per cent US$ equivalent
(billions)
China(a), (b) 131 4 3,443
Taiwan(a) 2 1 405
South Korea 1 0 319
Hong Kong(b) −14 −4 292
India 2 1 264
Singapore 2 1 259
Thailand(b) −3 −2 167
Malaysia 1 1 127
Indonesia −5 −5 100
Philippines 0 0 71

(a) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)
(b) End March

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; Hong Kong Monetary Authority; IMF; RBA
Table 2.6: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Per cent
Over
2012		 Since end
2012
Japanese yen 15 12
South African rand 7 4
UK pound sterling −3 2
Swiss franc −1 0
South Korean won −7 0
Canadian dollar −1 −1
Singapore dollar −4 −2
European euro 0 −2
US dollar 2 −2
Indonesian rupiah 10 −3
Indian rupee 5 −3
New Zealand dollar −4 −3
Chinese renminbi 1 −4
Malaysian ringgit −2 −5
Thai baht −1 −6
TWI 2 0

Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth(a)
Per cent
First half
2012		 Second half
2012
Domestic final demand 6.4 0.6
– Private demand 5.8 4.1
– Public demand 8.0 −10.4
Change in inventories(b) −0.7 0.0
Gross national expenditure 5.6 0.6
Net exports(b) −0.4 1.7
GDP 3.8 2.5
Nominal GDP 3.2 0.8
Real gross domestic income 1.3 −1.0

(a) Growth over two quarters, annualised
(b) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS
Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
3 months to
December 2012		 3 months to
March 2013		 Year to
March 2013
Capital cities
ABS(a), (b) 2.0 0.1 2.6
APM(b) 1.9 0.9 2.4
RP Data-Rismark 0.3 1.2 2.4
Regional areas
APM(b) 0.9 1.6 1.8
RP Data-Rismark(a) −0.5 −0.1 0.1

(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Lending Rates
Prior to the May cash rate reduction
Level at
30 April 2013 Per cent		 Change since end
October 2011 Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a) 6.44 −135
– Package variable rate(b) 5.63 −140
– Fixed rate(c) 5.44 −108
Personal loans
– Variable rate 11.88 −68
Small business (variable rates)
Residentially secured, advertised    
– Term loans 7.60 −140
– Overdraft 8.47 −138
Average rate(d) 7.20 −143
Large business
Average rate(d) (variable rate and bill funding) 5.12 −191

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package variable rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' three-year fixed rates
(d) Rates on outstanding business lending (including discounts)

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
December
quarter 2012		 March
quarter 2013		 December
quarter 2012		 March
quarter 2013
Consumer Price Index 0.2 0.4 2.2 2.5
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.5 0.1 2.2 2.5
– Tradables −0.2 −1.1 −0.4 −0.2
– Tradables
(excl volatile items and tobacco)(c)		 −0.4 −1.1 −0.7 −1.4
– Non-tradables 0.9 0.9 3.9 4.2
Selected underlying measures        
Trimmed mean 0.6 0.3 2.3 2.2
Weighted median 0.6 0.5 2.5 2.6
CPI excl volatile items(c) 0.5 0.3 2.4 2.4

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2013 Year to December 2014
November
2012		 February
2013		 May
2013		 February
2013		 May
2013
Market economists 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.7 2.7
Union officials(a) 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8

(a) Excluding carbon price

Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
Dec
2012		 June
2013		 Dec
2013		 June
2014		 Dec
2014		 June
2015
GDP growth 3.1 2½ 2½ 2–3 2½–3½ 2½–4
Non-farm GDP growth 3.4 2¾ 2½ 2–3 2½–3½ 2½–4
CPI inflation 2.2 2¼ 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Underlying inflation 2½ 2¼ 2¼ 2–3 2–3 2–3
Year-average
2012 2012/13 2013 2013/14 2014 2014/15
GDP growth 3.6 3 2¾ 2–3 2¼–3¼ 2½–3½

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.02, TWI at 77 and Brent crude oil price at US$103 per barrel

Sources: ABS; RBA