Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2011 List of tables

Table 1.1: World GDP Growth
Year-average, per cent(a)
2009 2010 2011 2012
Estimate IMF forecasts(b)
United States −2.6 2.8 3.0 2.7
Euro area −4.1 1.8 1.5 1.7
Japan −6.3 4.3 1.6 1.8
China 9.2 10.3 9.6 9.5
Other east Asia(c) 0.0 7.6 5.0 4.9
India 5.8 9.7 8.4 8.0
World −0.6 5.0 4.4 4.5
Australia's trading partners(d) −0.3 6.7 5.1 5.3

(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Forecasts from the January World Economic Outlook Update
(c) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(d) Weighted using merchandise export shares

Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters

Table 1.2: Commodity Price Growth
Per cent, SDR terms
Since end October 2010 Since end January 2010
RBA index 12 54
– Excluding coal and iron ore 11 31
Bulk commodities 12 82
– Coking coal(a) 7 64
– Iron ore(a) 14 116
– Thermal coal(a) 13 35
Rural 21 51
– Wheat 21 81
– Cotton 42 165
– Sugar 5 26
Base metals 13 31
– Copper 22 47
Gold −2 23
Oil(b) 14 30

(a) RBA estimates for recent months
(b) Average of WTI and Tapis crude oil prices

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA

Table 2.1: Policy Rates
Current level
Per cent		 Most recent
change		 Cumulative increase
Basis points
Euro area 1.00 ↓ May 09 –
Japan 0.05 ↓ Oct 10 –
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 –
Brazil 11.25 ↑ Jan 11 250
Canada 1.00 ↑ Sep 10 75
China 5.81 ↑ Dec 10 50
India 6.50 ↑ Jan 11 175
Indonesia 6.50 ↓ Aug 09 –
Israel 2.25 ↑ Jan 11 175
Malaysia 2.75 ↑ Jul 10 75
Mexico 4.50 ↓ Jul 09 –
New Zealand 3.00 ↑ Jul 10 50
Norway 2.00 ↑ May 10 75
Russia 7.75 ↓ Jun 10 –
South Africa 5.50 ↓ Nov 10 –
South Korea 2.75 ↑ Jan 11 75
Sweden 1.25 ↑ Dec 10 100
Switzerland 0.25 ↓ Mar 09 –
Taiwan 1.625 ↑ Dec 10 37.5
Thailand 2.25 ↑ Jan 11 100
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 –
Source: central banks
Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Over 2010 Since previous
Statement
United States
– Dow Jones 11 7
– S&P 500 13 9
– NASDAQ 17 8
Euro area
– STOXX 0 6
United Kingdom
– FTSE 9 4
Japan
– Nikkei −3 14
Canada
– TSE 300 14 8
Australia
– ASX 200 −3 2
China
– China A −14 −8
MSCI Indices
– Emerging Asia 12 0
– Latin America 7 − 4
– Emerging Europe 16 7
– World 8 6
Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Change in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Past year Since previous
Statement
European euro 1 2
Indian rupee −1 3
UK pound sterling −1 − 1
Chinese renminbi −4 −1
Indonesian rupiah −4 1
South African rand −4 4
South Korean won −4 −1
Philippine peso −5 4
Mexican peso −7 −2
Canadian dollar −7 −2
Thai baht −7 4
New Zealand dollar −8 0
Brazilian real −9 −2
New Taiwan dollar −9 −5
Singapore dollar −10 −1
Japanese yen −10 1
Swiss franc −11 −3
Malaysian ringgit −11 −1
Swedish krona −11 −2
Australian dollar −12 0
Majors TWI −4 0
Broad TWI −5 −1
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 2.4: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Per cent
Change over
past year		 Change since previous
Statement		 Deviation from
post-float average
European euro 15 3 10
US dollar 14 0 38
Indian rupee 13 3 69
UK pound sterling 12 0 38
Indonesian rupiah 11 1 136
Chinese renminbi 10 −1 41
South Korean won 9 0 60
South African rand 9 5 59
Thai baht 7 4 31
Canadian dollar 6 −2 7
New Zealand dollar 3 0 5
Singapore dollar 3 −1 3
Japanese yen 2 1 −12
Malaysian ringgit 2 −1 36
Swiss franc 1 −3 −11
TWI 9 0 26
Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
September
quarter 2010		 Year to September
quarter 2010
Domestic final demand 0.6 4.4
– Private demand 0.6 3.0
– Public demand 0.9 8.9
Change in inventories(a) −0.2 −0.1
GNE 0.4 4.3
Net exports(a) −0.4 −1.8
GDP 0.2 2.7
Nominal GDP 1.2 9.6

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS

Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
3 months to
September 2010		 3 months to
December 2010		 Year to
December 2010
Capital cities
ABS(a)(b) −0.3 0.7 5.8
APM 0.9 −0.4 4.7
RP Data-Rismark −0.1 0.4 4.7
Regional areas
APM(b) −0.4 0.2 1.2
RP Data-Rismark(a) −0.4 −0.4 0.8

(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark

Table 3.3: Components of Exports
Per cent; current prices
Share of total exports
2010		 Growth over year to
December 2010
Resources 56 44
– Iron ore(a) 17 105
– Coal(a) 15 35
Rural 10 19
Services 19 1
Manufacturing 11 2
Total 100 25

(a) RBA estimates

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Lending Rates(a)
Per cent
Change Since:
Level at
2 February 2011		 End
October 2010		 End
April 2009
Cash rate 4.75 0.25 1.75
Swap rate, 3-year 5.47 0.18 1.55
Housing loans
Prime full-doc 7.22 0.39 2.03
Prime full-doc, 3-year fixed rate 7.42 −0.01 1.55
Prime low-doc 7.88 0.40 2.08
Personal loans 12.88 0.28 1.93
Small business
Term loans
– Residentially secured 8.99 0.41 1.91
– Residentially secured, 3-year fixed rate 8.53 0.05 1.64
– Other security 9.70 0.36 1.81
Overdraft
– Residentially secured 9.86 0.41 1.96
– Other security 10.67 0.36 1.86
Average actual rate 8.92 0.41 1.81
Large business
Average actual rate (variable and bill funding) 6.98 0.20 1.95

(a) Variable interest rates unless otherwise indicated

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA

Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change
Monthly Average Year to December 2010
September quarter 2010 December quarter 2010
Total credit 0.1 0.2 3.4
– Owner-occupier housing 0.5 0.6 7.1
– Investor housing 0.7 0.5 7.9
– Personal 0.0 0.1 1.2
– Business −0.6 −0.4 −2.3
Broad money 0.5 0.8 8.1
Source: RBA
Table 4.3: Sectoral Movements in the ASX 200
Per cent
Change since:
November Statement Trough (March 2009) Peak (November 2007)
Resources 5.2 64 −9
Financials −0.6 62 −41
Other 0.6 34 −32
ASX 200 1.6 52 −30
Source: ASX
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly Year-ended
September quarter 2010 December quarter 2010 September quarter 2010 December quarter 2010
CPI 0.7 0.4   2.8 2.7
– Tradables 0.2 0.3   1.4 1.6
– Tradables
(excl food, fuel and tobacco)		 0.4 −1.2   −1.0 −2.0
– Non-tradables
(excl deposit & loan facilities)		 1.2 0.6   3.8 3.5
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.6 0.3   2.5 2.2
Weighted median 0.5 0.5   2.4 2.3
CPI excl volatile items(a) and deposit & loan facilities 1.1 0.1   2.9 2.5

(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2011 Year to December 2012
August 2010 November 2010 February 2011 November 2010 February 2011
Market economists(a) 3.0 3.2 3.3   2.8 3.1
Union officials(b) 3.2 3.0 3.2   na 3.2
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent, over year to quarter shown
June
2010		 Dec
2010		 June
2011		 Dec
2011		 June
2012		 Dec
2012		 June
2013
GDP growth 3.1 2¾ 3¼ 4¼ 3¾ 4 4
Non-farm GDP growth 3.2 2½ 3¼ 4¼ 3¾ 4 4
CPI inflation 3.1 2.7 2½ 3 2¾ 3 3
Underlying inflation 2¾ 2¼ 2¼ 2¾ 2¾ 3 3

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.00, TWI at 74, WTI crude oil price at US$96 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$103 per barrel

Sources: ABS; RBA