Statement on Monetary Policy – May 2010 List of tables

Chapters

Table 1: World GDP Growth
Year-average, per cent(a)
2008 2009 2010 2011
IMF forecasts(b)
United States 0.4 −2.4 3.1 2.6
Euro area 0.6 −4.1 1.0 1.5
Japan −1.2 −5.2 1.9 2.0
China 9.6 8.7 10.0 9.9
Other east Asia(c) 2.8 0.0 5.3 5.2
India 7.3 5.7 8.8 8.4
World 3.0 −0.6 4.2 4.3
Australia's trading partners(d) 2.7 −0.1 4.9 4.9

(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Forecasts from the April World Economic Outlook
(c) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(d) Weighted using merchandise export shares

Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 2: Policy Rates
Current level
Per cent		 Most
recent
change
Euro area 1.00 ↓ May 09
Japan 0.10 ↓ Dec 08
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08
Brazil 9.50 ↑ Apr 10
Canada 0.25 ↓ Apr 09
China 5.31 ↓ Dec 08
India 5.25 ↑ Apr 10
Indonesia 6.50 ↓ Aug 09
Israel 1.50 ↑ Mar 10
Malaysia 2.25 ↑ Mar 10
Mexico 4.50 ↓ Jul 09
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Apr 09
Norway 2.00 ↑ May 10
Russia 8.00 ↓ Apr 10
South Africa 6.50 ↓ Mar 10
South Korea 2.00 ↓ Feb 09
Sweden 0.25 ↓ Jul 09
Switzerland 0.25 ↓ Mar 09
Thailand 1.25 ↓ Apr 09
Turkey 6.50 ↓ Nov 09
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09
Sources: central banks
Table 3: Selected Sovereign Credit Default Swaps
April 2010
Outstandings (US$ billion)
S&P credit rating Gross CDS
contracts		 Net CDS
contracts		 Government
debt(a)
Italy A+ 224 25 1,892
Spain AA 105 14 614
Greece BB+ 79 8 377
Germany AAA 71 14 1,341
Portugal A− 62 9 149
France AAA 55 10 1,517
Ireland AA 35 5 115
United States AAA 13 2 8,430
Australia AAA 7 1 124

(a) Central government; May 2010

Sources: Bloomberg; Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation; RBA; S&P; US Treasury

Table 4: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
2007/08 peak to
recent trough		 Since recent trough 2007/08 peak to current Since previous Statement
United States
– Dow Jones −54 66 −23 6
– S&P 500 −57 72 −26 6
– NASDAQ −56 89 −16 10
Euro area
– STOXX −62 51 −42 −3
United Kingdom
– FTSE −48 52 −21 2
Japan
– Nikkei −61 57 −39 6
Canada
– TSE 300 −50 57 −21 4
China
– China A −72 67 −53 −5
Australia
– ASX 200 −54 49 −32 1
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −61 93 −25 3
– Latin America −57 92 −17 −3
– Emerging Europe −71 105 −41 −1
– World −56 63 −28 4
Source: Bloomberg
Table 5: US Dollar against Other Currencies
Percentage change
Past year Since previous Statement
European euro 4 8
Chinese renminbi 0 0
UK pound sterling 0 5
Swiss franc −1 6
Mexican peso −4 −2
Swedish krona −5 4
New Taiwan dollar −5 −1
Japanese yen −5 3
Singapore dollar −6 −1
Philippine peso −6 −3
Thai baht −8 −2
Malaysian ringgit −8 −5
Indian rupee −9 −2
South African rand −9 2
South Korean won −10 0
Indonesian rupiah −11 0
Canadian dollar −12 −3
Brazilian real −16 −2
Australian dollar −18 −3
New Zealand dollar −19 −2
Majors TWI −3 3
Broad TWI −3 1
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
Past year Since previous
Statement		 Deviation from
post-float average
European euro 26 11 7
UK pound sterling 21 8 34
Chinese renminbi 21 3 32
US dollar 21 3 25
Swiss franc 20 8 −5
Japanese yen 16 6 −10
Singapore dollar 15 1 1
Thai baht 12 1 24
South African rand 11 4 54
Malaysian ringgit 11 −3 31
Indian rupee 10 0 52
South Korean won 10 2 51
Indonesian rupiah 8 3 124
Canadian dollar 7 0 0
New Zealand dollar −1 1 3
TWI 16 4 20
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Table 7: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
December quarter
2009		 Year to December
quarter 2009
Domestic final demand 2.0 3.3
– Private demand 1.5 2.1
– Public demand 3.8 7.7
GNE 2.1 4.5
Net exports(a) −1.3 −0.5
Statistical discrepancy(a) 0.0 −1.4
GDP 0.9 2.7

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS
Table 8: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
December quarter 2009 March quarter 2010 Year to March quarter 2010 Trough-to-latest
Capital cities
ABS(a) 5.1 4.8 20.0 20.0
APM 4.9 2.9 15.7 15.7
RP Data-Rismark 2.9 3.6 12.6 14.5
Regional areas
APM 4.2 1.1 11.0 11.6
RP Data-Rismark(a) 2.3 0.6 6.3 6.7

(a) Detached houses only

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Table 9: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
Change since:
Level at
end April 2010		 End Jan 2009 End April 2009 End Aug 2008
Cash rate 4.25 0.50 1.25 −3.00
Housing loans
Prime full-doc 6.57 0.50 1.38 −2.48
Prime low-doc 7.17 0.50 1.36 −2.25
Personal loans 12.39 0.52 1.44 −0.70
Small business
Residentially secured
Term loans
 8.34 0.50 1.26 −1.76
Overdraft
 9.20 0.50 1.31 −1.71
Average actual rate(a) 8.26 0.50 1.15 −2.03
Large business
Average actual rate, variable and bill funding(a) 6.36 0.33 1.35 −2.24

(a) RBA estimate

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA
Table 10: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change
Average monthly growth Year to March 2010
December quarter
2009		 March quarter
2010
Total credit 0.1 0.4 2.1
– Owner-occupier housing 0.8 0.7 9.8
– Investor housing 0.5 0.7 5.7
– Personal 0.6 0.5 2.4
– Business −0.9 0.0 −6.9
Broad money −0.3 0.8 3.8
Source: RBA
Table 11: Sectoral Movements in the ASX 200
Per cent change since:
February Statement Trough (March 2009) Peak (November 2007)
Resources −2 38 −24
Financials 4 74 −36
Other 0 33 −32
ASX 200 1 49 −32
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 12: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly Year-ended
December
quarter
2009		 March
quarter
2010		 December
quarter
2009		 March
quarter
2010
CPI 0.5 0.9 2.1 2.9
– Tradables 0.1 0.2 1.4 1.1
– Tradables (ex food & fuel) −0.3 −0.7 2.0 0.3
– Non-tradables 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.2
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.5 0.8 3.2 3.0
Weighted median 0.6 0.8 3.5 3.1
CPI ex volatile items(a) and
deposit & loan facilities 		0.5 0.7 3.4 2.9

(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 13: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2010 Year to December 2011
November
2009		 February
2010		 May
2010		 February
2010		 May
2010
Market economists(a) 2.2 2.3 3.1   2.9 3.0
Union officials(b) 2.6 3.0 3.1   3.0 3.0
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Table 14: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent, over year to quarter shown
Dec 2009 June 2010 Dec 2010 June 2011 Dec 2011 June 2012 Dec 2012
GDP growth 2.7 2½ 3¼ 3¾ 3¾ 3¾ 4
Non-farm GDP growth 2.5 2½ 3¼ 3¾ 3¾ 3¾ 4
CPI inflation 2.1 3¼ 3¼ 3 2¾ 3 3
Underlying inflation 3¼ 2¾ 2¾ 2¾ 2¾ 3 3

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.91, TWI at 71, WTI crude oil price at US$87 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$90 per barrel.

Sources: ABS; RBA