Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2010 List of tables

Chapters

Boxes

Table 1: World GDP Growth
Year-average, per cent(a)
2008 2009 2010 2011
IMF forecasts(b)
United States 0.0 −2.6 3.3 2.9
Euro area 0.6 −4.1 1.0 1.3
Japan −1.2 −5.2 2.4 1.8
China 9.6 9.1 10.5 9.6
Other east Asia(c) 2.8 0.0 6.5 5.0
India 7.4 6.7 9.4 8.4
World 3.0 −0.6 4.6 4.3
Australia's trading partners(d) 2.7 0.1 5.5 4.7

(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Forecasts from the July World Economic Outlook Update
(c) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(d) Weighted using merchandise export shares

Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 2: Commodity Price Growth
SDR terms, per cent
Since end April 2010 Since end July 2009
RBA index 11 54
– Coal and iron ore(a) 19 81
– Excluding coal and iron ore 1 28
Rural 3 16
– Wheat 22 5
– Other −2 20
Base metals −3 24
Gold 0 27
Tapis crude oil −3 20

(a) Export prices; RBA estimates for recent months

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 3: Policy Rates
Current level
Per cent 		Most
recent
change 		Cumulative
increase
Basis points
Euro area 1.00 ↓ May 09 –
Japan 0.10 ↓ Dec 08 –
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 –
Brazil 10.75 ↑ Jul 10 200
Canada 0.75 ↑ Jul 10 50
China 5.31 ↓ Dec 08 –
India 5.75 ↑ Jul 10 100
Indonesia 6.50 ↓ Aug 09 –
Israel 1.75 ↑ Aug 10 125
Malaysia 2.75 ↑ Jul 10 75
Mexico 4.50 ↓ Jul 09 –
New Zealand 3.00 ↑ Jul 10 50
Norway 2.00 ↑ May 10 75
Russia 7.75 ↓ Jun 10 –
South Africa 6.50 ↓ Mar 10 –
South Korea 2.25 ↑ Jul 10 25
Sweden 0.50 ↑ Jul 10 25
Switzerland 0.25 ↓ Mar 09 –
Taiwan 1.38 ↑ Jun 10 13
Thailand 1.50 ↑ Jul 10 25
Turkey 7.00 ↓ Nov 09 –
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 –
Sources: central banks
Table 4: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Since 08/09
trough		 April peak
to current
United States
– Dow Jones 63 −5
– S&P 500 67 −7
– NASDAQ 82 −9
Euro area
– STOXX 59 −6
United Kingdom
– FTSE 53 −8
Japan
– Nikkei 35 −16
Canada
– TSE 300 57 −4
China
– China A 54 −17
Australia
– ASX 200 44 −9
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia 101 −1
– Latin America 101 −4
– Emerging Europe 107 −7
– World 58 −7
Source: Bloomberg
Table 5: US Dollar against Other Currencies
Percentage change
Past year Since previous
Statement
European euro 9 0
UK pound sterling 7 −4
Swedish krona 0 −2
Swiss franc −1 −3
Chinese renminbi −1 −1
New Taiwan dollar −3 −1
Brazilian real −4 0
Indian rupee −4 3
South Korean won −4 5
Mexican peso −5 1
Canadian dollar −5 1
Philippine peso −5 1
Thai baht −5 −1
Singapore dollar −6 −2
South African rand −7 −2
Australian dollar −8 1
New Zealand dollar −8 −2
Indonesian rupiah −9 −1
Malaysian ringgit −9 −1
Japanese yen −9 −8
Majors TWI 0 −2
Broad TWI −1 −1
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
Past year Since previous
Statement 		Deviation from
post-float average
European euro 19 0 5
UK pound sterling 17 −5 29
US dollar 9 −1 26
Swiss franc 8 −4 −9
Chinese renminbi 8 −2 33
Indian rupee 6 2 58
South Korean won 4 4 55
Canadian dollar 4 0 0
Thai baht 3 −1 24
Singapore dollar 3 −2 −1
South African rand 0 −3 49
New Zealand dollar 0 −3 1
Japanese yen −1 −9 −16
Malaysian ringgit −1 −2 30
Indonesian rupiah −1 −2 119
TWI 6 −3 19
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Table 7: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
March
quarter 2010 		Year to March
quarter 2010
Domestic final demand 0.6 4.4
– Private demand −0.4 2.0
– Public demand 3.8 12.9
GNE 0.8 5.7
Net exports(a) −0.5 −2.7
Statistical discrepancy(a) 0.2 −0.4
GDP 0.5 2.7

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS
Table 8: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
March
quarter 2010 		June
quarter 2010 		Year to June
quarter 2010		 Trough-to-
latest
Capital cities
ABS(a) 4.2 3.1 18.4 23.4
APM 3.7 2.5 15.2 19.2
RP Data-Rismark 4.5 1.4 12.2 17.3
Regional areas
APM 0.7 0.5 9.4 11.9
RP Data-Rismark(a) 1.6 0.3 5.9 8.5

(a) Detached houses only

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Table 9: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
Change since:
Level at
end July 2010		 End
April 2010		 End
April 2009
Cash rate 4.50 0.25 1.50
Housing loans
Prime full-doc 6.82 0.25 1.63
Prime low-doc 7.48 0.31 1.68
Personal loans 12.64 0.25 1.69
Small business
Residentially secured
Term loans
 8.59 0.25 1.51
Overdraft
 9.45 0.25 1.56
Average actual rate(a) 8.52 0.25 1.42
Large business
Average actual rate,
variable and bill funding(a) 		6.80 0.57 1.79

(a) RBA estimate

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA
Table 10: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change
Average monthly growth Year to June 2010
March quarter
2010		 June quarter
2010
Total credit 0.4 0.3 2.8
– Owner-occupier housing 0.7 0.5 8.7
– Investor housing 0.7 0.7 7.2
– Personal 0.5 −0.2 3.1
– Business 0.0 0.1 −5.0
Broad Money 0.8 0.5 2.9
Source: RBA
Table 11: Sectoral Movements in the ASX 200
Per cent change since:
May Statement Trough (March 2009) Peak (November 2007)
Resources 5.7 44 −21
Financials −4.3 61 −41
Other −1.7 29 −34
ASX 200 −0.7 44 −33
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 12: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly Year-ended
March
quarter 2010 		June
quarter 2010 		March
quarter 2010 		June
quarter 2010
CPI 0.9 0.6   2.9 3.1
– Tradables 0.2 1.0   1.1 1.4
– Tradables (excl food, fuel and tobacco) −1.0 −0.1   0.1 −1.1
– Non-tradables 1.5 0.3   4.2 4.2
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.8 0.5   3.0 2.7
Weighted median 0.8 0.5   3.1 2.7
CPI excl volatile items(a) and deposit & loan facilities 0.7 0.7   2.9 2.8

(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 13: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2010 Year to December 2011
February
2010		 May
2010		 August
2010		 February
2010		 May
2010		 August
2010
Market economists(a) 2.3 3.1 3.2   2.9 3.0 3.0
Union officials(b) 3.0 3.1 3.1   3.0 3.0 3.2
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Table 14: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent, over year to quarter shown
Dec
2009		 June
2010		 Dec
2010		 June
2011		 Dec
2011		 June
2012		 Dec
2012
GDP growth 2.8 3 3¼ 3¾ 3¾ 3¾ 4
Non-farm GDP growth 2.8 3 3¼ 3½ 3¾ 3¾ 4
CPI inflation 2.1 3.1 3¼ 3¼ 2¾ 3 3
Underlying inflation 3¼ 2¾ 2¾ 2¾ 2¾ 3 3

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.92, TWI at 70, WTI crude oil price at US$84 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$87 per barrel.

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table A1: Discretionary Fiscal Tightening in Europe
Share of EU GDP(a)
Per cent
Tightening announced since late 2009(b)
Per cent of GDP
For 2010 For 2011
Germany 19 0 ½  
France 14¼ 0 ½  
Italy 11¾ ½ 1  
Spain 9¼ 2½ 2½  
Greece 2¼ 8 4  
Ireland 1¼ 2½ 2  
Portugal 1½ 2 2½  
United Kingdom 14½ ½ 1½  

(a) Shares in 2009 at purchasing power parity exchange rates
(b) RBA estimates, to nearest ½ per cent of GDP

Sources: European Commission; Eurostat; IMF; RBA; national authorities