Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2009 List of tables
Chapters
- Table 1: World GDP Growth
- Table 2: Policy Rates
- Table 3: Changes in Global Share Prices
- Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
- Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
- Table 6: Demand and Output Growth
- Table 7: National Dwelling Price Growth
- Table 8: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
- Table 9: Credit Aggregates
- Table 10: Sectoral movements in the ASX 200
- Table 11: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
- Table 12: Median Inflation Expectations
- Table 13: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts
Boxes
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IMF forecasts(d) | |||
| United States | 0.4 | −2.7 | 1.5 |
| Euro area | 0.7 | −4.2 | 0.3 |
| Japan | −0.7 | −5.4 | 1.7 |
| China | 9.0 | 8.5 | 9.0 |
| Other east Asia(b) | 2.7 | −1.2 | 3.8 |
| India | 7.3 | 5.4 | 6.4 |
| World | 3.0 | −1.1 | 3.1 |
| Australia's trading partners(c) | 2.7 | −0.8 | 3.7 |
|
(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters |
|||
|
Current level Per cent |
Most recent change |
Change over easing phase Basis points |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Euro area | 1.00 | ↓ May 09 | ↓ 325 |
| Japan | 0.10 | ↓ Dec 08 | ↓ 40 |
| United States | 0.125 | ↓ Dec 08 | ↓ 513 |
| Brazil | 8.75 | ↓ Jul 09 | ↓ 500 |
| Canada | 0.25 | ↓ Apr 09 | ↓ 425 |
| China | 5.31 | ↓ Dec 08 | ↓ 216 |
| India | 4.75 | ↓ Apr 09 | ↓ 425 |
| Indonesia | 6.50 | ↓ Aug 09 | ↓ 300 |
| Israel | 0.75 | ↑ Aug 09 | ↓ 375 |
| Malaysia | 2.00 | ↓ Feb 09 | ↓ 150 |
| Mexico | 4.50 | ↓ Jul 09 | ↓ 375 |
| New Zealand | 2.50 | ↓ Apr 09 | ↓ 575 |
| Norway | 1.50 | ↑ Oct 09 | ↓ 450 |
| Russia | 9.50 | ↓ Oct 09 | ↓ 350 |
| South Africa | 7.00 | ↓ Aug 09 | ↓ 500 |
| South Korea | 2.00 | ↓ Feb 09 | ↓ 325 |
| Sweden | 0.25 | ↓ Jul 09 | ↓ 450 |
| Switzerland | 0.25 | ↓ Mar 09 | ↓ 250 |
| Thailand | 1.25 | ↓ Apr 09 | ↓ 250 |
| Turkey | 6.75 | ↓ Oct 09 | ↓ 1,000 |
| United Kingdom | 0.50 | ↓ Mar 09 | ↓ 525 |
| Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; central banks | |||
|
Peak to recent trough |
Since recent trough |
Since previous Statement |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | ||||
| – Dow Jones | −54 | 50 | 6 | |
| – S&P 500 | −57 | 55 | 4 | |
| – NASDAQ | −56 | 62 | 3 | |
| Euro area | ||||
| – STOXX | −62 | 53 | 6 | |
| United Kingdom | ||||
| – FTSE | −48 | 45 | 10 | |
| Japan | ||||
| – Nikkei | −61 | 40 | −4 | |
| Canada | ||||
| – TSE 300 | −50 | 46 | 0 | |
| China | ||||
| – China A | −72 | 83 | −9 | |
| Australia | ||||
| – ASX 200 | −54 | 44 | 6 | |
| MSCI indices | ||||
| – Emerging Asia | −61 | 86 | 4 | |
| – Latin America | −57 | 87 | 9 | |
| – Emerging Europe | −71 | 82 | 9 | |
| – World | −56 | 49 | 3 | |
| Source: Bloomberg | ||||
| Past year |
Since recent peak (March 2009) |
|
|---|---|---|
| Mexican peso | 6 | −15 |
| Chinese renminbi | 0 | 0 |
| Taiwan dollar | 0 | −7 |
| Indian rupee | −1 | −9 |
| Philippine peso | −2 | −2 |
| Malaysian ringgit | −3 | −8 |
| British pound | −4 | −17 |
| Thai baht | −4 | −8 |
| Singapore dollar | −5 | −10 |
| Korean won | −6 | −24 |
| Canadian dollar | −8 | −18 |
| Swedish krona | −8 | −24 |
| Japanese yen | −9 | −8 |
| Indonesian rupiah | −13 | −21 |
| Swiss franc | −13 | −12 |
| Euro | −13 | −15 |
| New Zealand dollar | −17 | −32 |
| Brazilian real | −18 | −28 |
| South African rand | −21 | −31 |
| Australian dollar | −23 | −31 |
| Majors TWI | −9 | −15 |
| Broad TWI | −5 | −12 |
| Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System | ||
|
Since recent peak (July 2008) |
Since recent trough (March 2009) |
Deviation from post-float average |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| British pound | 12 | 24 | 24 |
| Korean won | 8 | 6 | 56 |
| Indian rupee | 2 | 31 | 62 |
| Euro | 0 | 22 | −7 |
| Malaysian ringgit | −1 | 32 | 40 |
| Canadian dollar | −1 | 20 | 3 |
| New Zealand dollar | −2 | −2 | 2 |
| Indonesian rupiah | −3 | 14 | 135 |
| Singapore dollar | −4 | 29 | 2 |
| South African rand | −6 | 7 | 57 |
| Thai baht | −6 | 33 | 29 |
| US dollar | −7 | 44 | 26 |
| Chinese renminbi | −7 | 44 | 33 |
| Swiss franc | −7 | 25 | −13 |
| Japanese yen | −21 | 34 | −12 |
| TWI | −5 | 30 | 19 |
| Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters | |||
| March quarter 2009 |
June quarter 2009 |
Year to June quarter 2009 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic final demand | −1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| GNE | −0.9 | 1.0 | −0.4 |
| Net exports(a) | 2.2 | −0.2 | 3.3 |
| Statistical discrepancy(a) | −0.9 | −0.1 | −2.3 |
| GDP | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Non-farm GDP | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| GDP adjusted for changes | |||
| in the terms of trade | −1.4 | −1.1 | −2.1 |
|
(a) Contribution to GDP growth Source: ABS |
|||
| June quarter 2009 |
September quarter 2009 |
Year to September quarter 2009 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| House prices | |||
| ABS | 4.2 | 4.2 | 6.2 |
| APM | 3.6 | 3.7 | 6.5 |
| RP Data-Rismark | 2.7 | 2.7 | 5.5 |
| Apartment prices | |||
| APM | 2.9 | 3.3 | 8.2 |
| RP Data-Rismark | 2.5 | 2.2 | 7.1 |
| Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark | |||
| Current level | Change since: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 November 2009 | Jul 2009 | Aug 2008 | ||
| Cash rate | 3.50 | 0.50 | −3.75 | |
| Housing loans | ||||
| Prime full-doc | 5.61 | 0.43 | −3.37 | |
| Prime low-doc | 6.09 | 0.20 | −3.40 | |
| Personal loans | ||||
| Margin loans | 8.16 | 0.15 | −2.42 | |
| Standard credit cards | 18.12 | 0.21 | −1.81 | |
| Low-rate credit cards | 12.09 | 0.13 | −0.84 | |
| Unsecured term loans | 13.77 | 0.25 | −1.13 | |
| Home equity loans | 6.21 | 0.30 | −3.37 | |
| Small business | ||||
| Term loans | ||||
| Residentially secured | 7.48 | 0.38 | −2.61 | |
| Other security | 8.27 | 0.38 | −2.43 | |
| Overdraft | ||||
| Residentially secured | 8.30 | 0.38 | −2.61 | |
| Other security | 9.19 | 0.38 | −2.40 | |
| Average actual rate(a) | 7.51 | 0.36 | −2.78 | |
| Large business | ||||
|
Average actual rate, variable and bill funding(a) |
5.54 | 0.36 | −3.07 | |
|
(a) RBA estimate Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA |
||||
|
December quarter 2008 |
March quarter 2009 |
June quarter 2009 |
September quarter 2009 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total credit | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Household | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| – Owner-occupier housing | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| – Investor housing | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| – Personal | −1.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 | 0.0 |
| Business | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.8 |
| Source: RBA | ||||
|
November 2007 peak |
March 2009 trough |
Previous Statement |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Resources | −25 | 35 | −1 |
| Financials | −39 | 67 | 10 |
| Other | −34 | 30 | 4 |
| ASX 200 | −34 | 44 | 5 |
| Source: Bloomberg | |||
| Quarterly | Year-ended | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
June quarter 2009 |
September quarter 2009 |
June quarter 2009 |
September quarter 2009 |
|
| CPI | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| – Tradables | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.5 |
| – Tradables (ex food & fuel) | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| – Non-tradables | 0.4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Selected underlying measures | ||||
| Weighted median | 0.8 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Trimmed mean | 0.8 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
|
CPI ex volatile items(a) and deposit & loan facilities |
0.8 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
|
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel Sources: ABS; RBA |
||||
| Year to June 2010 | Year to June 2011 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
May 2009 |
August 2009 |
November 2009 |
August 2009 |
November 2009 |
||
| Market economists(a) | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| Union officials(b) | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | |
|
(a) RBA survey (b) Workplace Research Centre |
||||||
| June 2009 | Dec 2009 | June 2010 | Dec 2010 | June 2011 | Dec 2011 | June 2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | 0.6 | 1¾ | 2¼ | 3¼ | 3¼ | 3¼ | 3½ |
| Non-farm GDP growth | 0.5 | 1¾ | 2 | 3¼ | 3¼ | 3¼ | 3½ |
| CPI inflation | 1.5 | 2 | 2½ | 2¼ | 2¼ | 2½ | 2½ |
| Underlying inflation | 3¾ | 3¼ | 2½ | 2¼ | 2¼ | 2½ | 2½ |
|
(a) Actual GDP and inflation data for June 2009. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.91, TWI at 70, WTI crude oil price at US$85 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$88 per barrel. Sources: ABS; RBA |
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|
Australia (peak: June 2008) |
United Kingdom (peak: December 2007) |
United States (peak: September 2007) |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-servicing ratio | −5.1 | −3.1 | −1.0 |
| Contributions from | |||
| Mortgage interest | −3.9 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
| Non-mortgage interest | −0.8 | 0.0 | −0.5 |
| Disposable income | −0.4 | −0.5 | −0.4 |
| Sources: National Sources; RBA | |||