Statement on Monetary Policy – May 2009 List of tables

Chapters

Boxes

Table 1: Expected Fiscal Balances in Selected Countries(a)
Per cent of GDP
2007 and 2008
Average		 2009 2010
United States −2¼ −13 −9½
United Kingdom −4¼ −12½ −12
Germany −¼ −4¾ −6
Japan −4 −10 −9¾
China ¼ −3½ −3½
Korea 2¼ −3¼ −4½
Indonesia −½ −2½ −2
(a) Estimates for the United States and the United Kingdom are from the Congressional Budget Office and Her Majesty's Treasury, respectively, and are for the relevant fiscal years for each country; other figures are RBA estimates based on national and international sources. Data for the United States refer to federal government fiscal balance.
Table 2: World GDP Growth
Year average, Per cent(a)
2007 2008 2009 2010
IMF forecasts(d)
United States 2.0 1.1 −2.8 0.0
Euro area 2.7 0.7 −4.2 −0.4
Japan 2.4 −0.7 −6.2 0.5
China 13 9.0 6.5 7.5
Other east Asia(b) 5.8 2.8 −3.4 1.4
India 9.2 7.4 4.5 5.6
World 5.2 3.2 −1.3 1.9
Australia's trading partners(c) 5.6 2.8 −2.0 2.1

(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(c) Weighted using merchandise export shares
(d) Forecasts from the April World Economic Outlook (WEO)

Sources: CEIC; Consensus Economics; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 3: Policy Rates
Current level Most recent
change		 Change since
start of
easing phase
Per cent Basis points
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 ↓ 513
Euro area 1.25 ↓ Apr 09 ↓ 300
Japan 0.10 ↓ Dec 08 ↓ 40
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 ↓ 525
Canada 0.25 ↓ Apr 09 ↓ 425
Sweden 0.50 ↓ Apr 09 ↓ 425
Switzerland 0.25 ↓ Mar 09 ↓ 250
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Apr 09 ↓ 575
Sources: Bloomberg; central banks
Table 4: Emerging Market Policy Rates
Current level Change since
previous Statement		 Change since
start of easing phase
Per cent Basis points Basis points
Brazil 10.25 ↓ 250 ↓ 350
Chile 1.75 ↓ 550 ↓ 650
Czech Republic 1.75 ↓ 50 ↓ 200
Iceland 15.50 ↓ 250 ↓ 250
India 4.75 ↓ 75 ↓ 425
Indonesia 7.25 ↓ 100 ↓ 225
Israel 0.50 ↓ 50 ↓ 375
Malaysia 2.00 ↓ 50 ↓ 150
Mexico 6.00 ↓ 175 ↓ 225
Philippines 4.50 ↓ 50 ↓ 150
Poland 3.75 ↓ 50 ↓ 225
Russia 12.50 ↓ 50 ↓ 50
South Africa 8.50 ↓ 300 ↓ 350
South Korea 2.00 ↓ 50 ↓ 325
Taiwan 1.25 ↓ 25 ↓ 238
Thailand 1.25 ↓ 75 ↓ 250
Turkey 9.75 ↓ 325 ↓ 700
Sources: Bloomberg; central banks
Table 5: Government-guaranteed Bank Bonds(a)
Issuance
US$ billion
United States 259.4
United Kingdom 120.7
France 82.9
Australia 61.3
Germany 41.2
Netherlands 38.4
Spain 36.6
Austria 19.0
Ireland 17.9
Sweden 17.8
Portugal 4.3
Norway 4.0
Switzerland 3.0
Greece 1.3
New Zealand 1.2
South Korea 1.0
Total 710.0

(a) May exclude some private placements

Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 6: Changes in Global Share Prices
Per cent
Peak to
trough		 Since recent
trough		 Since previous
Statement
United States
– Dow Jones −54 30 7
– S&P 500 −57 36 10
– NASDAQ −56 39 16
Euro area
– STOXX −62 34 8
United Kingdom
– FTSE −48 25 4
Japan
– Nikkei −61 27 12
Canada
– TSE 300 −50 34 17
Australia
– ASX 200 −54 23 12
MSCI
– Emerging Asia −61 53 30
– Latin America −57 59 22
– Emerging Europe −71 49 40
– World −56 32 11
Source: Bloomberg
Table 7: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
Past year Since previous
Statement
New Zealand 36 −13
Sweden 32 −5
United Kingdom 30 −4
Brazil 28 −8
Mexico 25 −9
South Korea 25 −8
Australia 27 −14
India 21 2
Euro area 16 −4
Canada 16 −5
Indonesia 13 −11
Philippines 13 1
Malaysia 12 −3
Thailand 11 1
South Africa 11 −17
Taiwan 9 −1
Singapore 8 −2
Switzerland 8 −2
China −2 0
Japan −6 10
Majors TWI 14 −2
Broad TWI 14 −1
Sources: Bloomberg; US Federal Reserve
Table 8: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
Past year Since previous
Statement		 Deviation from
post-float average
New Zealand 6 0 4
United Kingdom 3 11 12
South Korea −2 6 41
India −5 16 42
Euro area −8 10 −15
Canada −8 8 −7
Indonesia −11 2 117
Malaysia −11 13 20
Thailand −12 15 12
South Africa −12 −3 43
Singapore −14 12 −12
Switzerland −15 11 −21
United States −21 15 4
China −23 15 10
Japan −26 24 −22
TWI −15 13 4
Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Table 9: Demand and Output
Percentage change
September
quarter 2008		 December
quarter 2008		 Year to December
quarter 2008
Domestic final demand 0.3 0.1 2.6
GNE(a) 0.5 −2.0 0.1
Net exports(b) −0.4 1.5 0.2
GDP 0.1 −0.5 0.3
Non-farm GDP −0.2 −0.8 0.0
GDP adjusted for changes
in the terms of trade 1.5 −1.2 3.9

(a) Adjusted for the statistical discrepancy
(b) Contribution to GDP growth

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 10: National Housing Prices
Percentage change
December
quarter 2008		 March
quarter 2009		 Year to March
quarter 2009
House prices
ABS −1.2 −2.2 −6.7
RP Data-Rismark −1.0 −0.1 −3.8
APM −0.5 0.1 −3.5
Apartment prices
RP Data-Rismark −0.1 0.9 −0.9
APM −0.2 0.4 −1.7
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Table 11: Relative performance of Australian exports
Per cent
Growth in
export volumes		 Share of merchandise exports (2007/08)
June to December
quarter		 Rural and
resources		 Manufactures
Japan −13 4 96
South Korea −9 10 90
Euro area −7 21 79
New Zealand −6 67 33
United States −6 22 78
Canada −6 61 39
United Kingdom −4 21 79
China(a) −3 5 95
Australia −1 81 19

(a) Merchandise exports only

Sources: CEIC; Eurostat; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 12: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
Current level Change since:
5 May 2009 End Jan 2009 End Aug 2008 End Jul 2007
Cash rate 3.00 −1.25 −4.25 −3.25
Housing loans
Prime full-doc
Banks 5.14 −1.07 −3.83 −2.32
Credit unions and building societies 5.27 −1.10 −3.73 −2.27
Mortgage originators 5.58 −0.93 −3.64 −1.90
Prime low-doc
Banks 5.90 −1.00 −3.55 −1.86
Mortgage originators 6.49 −0.73 −3.34 −1.31
Non-conforming 9.40 −1.00 −2.51 0.24
Personal loans
Margin loans 8.01 −0.92 −2.57 −0.96
Standard credit cards 17.9 −0.71 −2.03 0.12
Low-rate credit cards 12.02 −0.23 −0.91 0.85
Unsecured term loans 13.52 −0.57 −1.38 0.91
Home equity loans 5.89 −1.04 −3.69 −2.33
Small business
Term loans
Residentially secured 7.08 −1.20 −3.01 −1.22
Other security 7.90 −1.11 −2.80 −1.00
Overdraft
Residentially secured 7.90 −1.20 −3.01 −1.15
Other security 8.81 −1.11 −2.77 −0.90
Average actual rate(a) 7.21 −1.26 −2.95 −1.43
Large business
Average actual rate, variable and bill funding(a) 4.88 −0.98 −3.75 −2.44

(a) RBA estimate

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA
Table 13: Credit Aggregates
Average monthly growth, per cent
June
quarter 2008		 September
quarter 2008		 December
quarter 2008		 March
quarter 2009
Total credit 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2
Household 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5
– Owner-occupier housing 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8
– Investor housing 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2
– Personal −0.1 −0.6 −1.0 −0.4
Business 0.5 0.9 0.0 −0.1
Source: RBA
Table 14: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly Year-ended
December
quarter
2008		 March
quarter
2009		 December
quarter
2008		 March
quarter
2009
CPI −0.3 0.1 3.7 2.5
– Tradables −1.8 0.5 1.2 0.8
– Tradables (ex food & fuel) −0.2 0.9 0.9 2.0
– Non-tradables 0.6 −0.1 5.4 3.4
Underlying measures
Weighted median 0.9 1.2 4.5 4.4
Trimmed mean 0.6 1.0 4.2 3.9
CPI ex volatile items(a) and deposit & loan facilities 0.6 1.1 3.8 3.7

(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 15: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2009 Year to December 2010
November
2008		 February
2009		 May
2009		 February
2009		 May
2009
Market economists(a) 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.4
Union officials(b) 4.1 3 2.1 3 2.7
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Table 16: Output and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown
Dec
2008		 June
2009		 Dec
2009		 June
2010		 Dec
2010		 June
2011		 Dec
2011
GDP 0.3 −1¼ −1 ½ 2 3¼ 3¾
Non-farm GDP 0.0 −1½ −1 ½ 2 3¼ 3¾
CPI 3.7 1½ 2¼ 2½ 2 1½ 1½
Underlying inflation 4.3 3¾ 3¼ 2½ 2 1½ 1½

(a) Actual data to December 2008. Underlying inflation refers to the average of trimmed mean and weighted median inflation. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.75, TWI at 61, cash rate at 3.00 per cent, and WTI crude oil price at US$65 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$67 per barrel.

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table B1: Australian Resource Export Volumes
Per cent change, seasonally adjusted
Share of resource
export values (2008)		 Six months to March
on previous six months
Iron ore 20 −12
Coking coal 21 −23
Thermal coal 10 12
LNG 6 22
Oil 7 15
Gold 10 6
Sources: ABS; RBA