Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2007 List of tables

Chapters

Boxes

Table 1: World GDP
Year-average percentage change(a)
2005 2006 2007 2008
IMF forecasts (July 2007)
United States 3.1 2.9 2.0 2.8
Euro area 1.6 2.9 2.6 2.5
Japan 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.0
China 10.4 11.1 11.2 10.5
Other east Asia(b) 4.9 5.4 4.9 5.0
India 8.7 9.7 9.0 8.4
World 4.9 5.5 5.2 5.2
Australia's trading partners(c) 4.3 4.9 5.1 4.8

(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Weighted by GDP at market exchange rates
(c) Weighted using merchandise export shares

Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Financial

Table 2: Commodity Prices
Percentage change; SDR
Three months
to July 2007
Year to
July 07
RBA index −0.6 4.4
Rural 8.9 11.8
– Wheat 14.5 16.5
– Beef & veal 1.9 0.9
– Wool 3.2 38.1
– Sugar 11.4 −29.4
Base metals −9.5 13.8
– Aluminium −3.4 5.4
– Copper 2.8 −0.2
– Nickel −33.8 23.3
– Zinc −0.8 3.2
– Lead 53.8 181.9
Other resources 0.5 −2.0
– Coking coal(a) −1.0 −12.8
– Steaming coal(a) 7.2 4.9
– Iron ore(a) 4.7 7.1
– Gold −2.7 1.5
Memo item    
Oil in US$(b)    
– WTI 15.7 −0.5
– Tapis 6.2 2.7

(a) Latest available data are for June.
(b) Oil prices are not included in the RBA index.

Sources: ABS; AWB; AWEX; Bloomberg; Meat and Livestock Australia; RBA

Table 3: Changes in Monetary Policy
Current level
Per cent
Most recent
change
Expectations for
next 6 months
United States 5.25 Jun-06 25 bps
Euro area 4.00 Jun-07 25 bps
Japan 0.50 Feb-07 25 bps
United Kingdom 5.75 Jul-07 25 bps
Canada 4.50 Jul-07 25 bps
New Zealand 8.25 Jul-07 No change

Sources: central banks; Bloomberg; Reuters

Table 4: Changes in Global Share Prices
Per cent
Since 2000 peak Over the past year Since previous
Statement
United States
– Dow Jones 17 22 3
– S&P 500 −2 18 0
– NASDAQ −48 27 2
Euro area
– STOXX −10 22 −2
United Kingdom
– FTSE −8 10 −1
Japan
– TOPIX −5 7 −2
Canada
– TSE 300 21 15 1
Australia
– ASX 200 75 21 −2
MSCI Emerging Asia 52 44 16
MSCI Latin America 234 43 9
MSCI World 4 19 0

Source: Bloomberg

Table 5: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
Past
year
Since previous
Statement
New Zealand −19 −4
Brazil −13 −7
India −13 −2
Philippines −12 −5
Australia −11 −3
Thailand −10 −2
Euro area −7 −1
Canada −7 −6
Sweden −6 0
Malaysia −6 1
United Kingdom −6 −2
China −5 −2
Singapore −4 −1
South Korea −4 −1
Switzerland −2 −1
Taiwan 0 −1
Mexico 0 0
Indonesia 2 2
South Africa 3 0
Japan 4 0
Majors TWI −5 −3
Broad TWI −5 −2

Source: RBA

Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
Past year Since previous
Statement
Japan 18 5
South Africa 17 4
Indonesia 15 6
Taiwan 14 3
US 14 5
PNG 11 2
Switzerland 11 3
South Korea 10 4
Singapore 9 4
China 8 3
Canada 6 −1
Euro area 6 3
Sweden 6 4
UK 6 2
Philippines 0 −1
New Zealand −7 0
TWI 10 4

Source: RBA

Table 7: Demand and Output
Percentage change
December
qtr 2006
March
qtr 2007
Year to March
qtr 2007
Domestic final demand 1.2 1.5 4.5
Change in inventories(a) 0.7 0.5 0.6
GNE(b) 2.3 1.8 5.3
Net exports(a) −1.3 −0.2 −1.6
GDP 1.1 1.6 3.8
Non-farm GDP 1.3 1.7 4.6
Farm GDP −10.4 −0.2 −22.7
Memo item:      
Real GDP adjusted for
changes in the terms of trade
1.4 1.9 5.4

(a) Contributions to GDP growth
(b) Includes the statistical discrepancy

Sources: ABS, RBA

Table 8: House Prices
Percentage change
March qtr June qtr Year to
June qtr
Sydney 0.1 2.3 3.0
Melbourne 1.7 5.0 11.5
Brisbane 4.2 6.5 15.7
Adelaide 2.2 5.7 11.7
Perth 1.3 −0.9 15.3
Canberra 1.3 2.9 9.0
Hobart 3.4 2.3 9.7
Darwin 2.5 −1.4 7.4
Australia 1.4 3.2 9.2

Source: ABS

Table 9: Fiscal Balance – General Government Sector(a)
Estimates, $ billion
2006/07 2007/08
Federal government 12.8 11.0
– Per cent of GDP 1.2 1.0
State governments −2.1 −5.7
– Per cent of GDP −0.2 −0.5
Total – federal and state 10.7 5.3
– Per cent of GDP 1.0 0.5

(a) ABS Government Finance Statistics basis

Sources: Australian Treasury; RBA; state Treasuries

Table 10: Volume of Farm Production
Per cent
Share of gross production Growth(a)
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
Crops 44 −31 40
– Cereals 17 −60 130
– Non-cereal crops 27 −13 15
Livestock products 46 −3 0
Farm GDP(b)   −21 20

(a) Estimate for 2006/07, forecast for 2007/08
(b) Gross farm production less farm inputs

Sources: ABARE; ABS; RBA

Table 11: Unemployment Rates by State
Per cent
Three months ended
July 2006 July 2007
NSW 5.1 4.8
Victoria 5.1 4.6
Queensland 4.5 3.5
WA 3.2 3.4
SA 4.8 4.8
Tasmania 6.4 4.8
Australia 4.8 4.3

Source: ABS

Table 12: Share Market Performance
Per cent
Dec 2002–Dec 2006
Average annual change
Financial year
2006/07
Calendar year
to date
ASX 200 17.2 23.7 7.6
S&P 500 12.7 18.4 5.6
MSCI ex US 16.8 20.3 4.2

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; Thomson Financial

Table 13: Financial Aggregates
Average monthly growth, percentage change
September
quarter
2006
December
quarter
2006
March
quarter
2007
June
quarter
2007
Total credit 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.4
Household 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.3
– Housing 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.2
Owner-occupier housing 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.2
Investor housing 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.3
– Personal 1.2 0.7 0.9 2.0
Business 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.7
Broad money 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.3

Source: RBA

Table 14: Measures of Consumer Prices
Percentage change
Quarterly Year-ended
March
quarter
2007
June
quarter
2007
March
quarter
2007
June
quarter
2007
CPI 0.1 1.2 2.4 2.1
– Tradables −1.0 2.0 1.0 0.3
– Tradables (ex food and petrol) 0.0 0.8 0.4 1.0
– Non-tradables 0.9 0.7 3.5 3.4
Underlying measures        
Weighted median 0.6 0.9 2.8 2.8
Trimmed mean 0.5 0.9 2.7 2.7
CPI ex volatile items(a) 0.6 0.7 2.5 2.6

(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and petrol

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 15: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to June 2008 Year to June 2009
February
2007
May
2007
August
2007
August
2007
Market economists(a) 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7
Union officials(b) 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Table 16: RBA Inflation Forecasts(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown
June
2006
Dec
2006
June
2007
Dec
2007
June
2008
Dec
2008
June
2009
Consumer price index 4.0 3.3 2.1 3 2½–3 2½–3
Underlying inflation 2.9 3.0 2.8 3 3 2½–3 2½–3

(a) Actual data to June 2007. Underlying inflation refers to the average of trimmed mean and weighted median inflation. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.86, TWI at 69, cash rate at 6.5 per cent, and WTI crude oil price at US$73 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$75 per barrel.

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table A1: Share of World Activity
Selected economies, 2006, Per cent
GDP Australia's exports(a)
PPP exchange rates Market exchange rates
United States 20 28 6
Euro area 15 23 7
Japan 6 9 19
China 15 5 14
Other east Asia 7 5 24
India 6 2 6
Australia 1 2 na

(a) Merchandise exports, valued at market exchange rates

Sources: ABS; IMF; RBA

Table C1: Measures of Construction Activity[1]
Chain volumes, percentage change
Value added(a) Expenditure Employment
Non-residential Residential
2003/04 6.6 5.6 4.6 8.0
2004/05 4.8 10.2 −1.5 7.7
2005/06 8.3 16.9 −4.0 4.8
2006/07(b) 7.5 8.6 3.8 6.9
Average 6.8 10.3 0.6 6.8

(a) Gross value added at basic prices
(b) Estimate

Source: ABS

Footnote

Construction industry data are on a value-added basis. Data for residential and non-residential construction refer to expenditure as value-added data are not available. [1]