Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2006 List of tables

Table 1: World GDP
Year-average percentage change(a)
2004 2005 2006 2007
Consensus forecasts
(July 2006)
United States 3.9 3.2 3.5 2.8
Euro area 1.8 1.4 2.2 1.8
Japan 2.3 2.6 3.0 2.2
China 10.1 9.9 9.7 8.8
Other east Asia(b) 5.9 4.8 5.2 4.8
India 7.3 8.2 7.6 7.2
Latin America 5.8 4.3 4.7 4.1
Emerging Europe 6.1 5.2 5.8 5.5
World 5.3 4.7 5.0 4.6
Australia's trading partners(c) 4.9 4.4 4.6 4.1

(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Weighted using market exchange rates
(c) Weighted using merchandise export shares

Sources: CEIC; Consensus Economics; IMF; RBA; Thomson Financial
Table 2: Changes in Monetary Policy
Current level
 Per cent
 Most recent
change
 Market expectations
for next 6 months
United States 5.25 ↑ Jun 06 No change
Euro area 2.75 ↑ Jun 06 ↑ 50 bps
Japan 0.25 ↑  Jul 06 ↑ 25 bps
United Kingdom 4.50 ↓ Aug 05 ↑ 25 bps
Canada 4.25 ↑ May 06 No change
New Zealand 7.25 ↑ Dec 05 No change

Sources: central banks; Bloomberg; Reuters
Table 3: Changes in Major Country Share Prices
Per cent
Since
2000
peak
 2006 to
date		 Since
previous
Statement
United States
– Dow Jones −5 4 –2
– S&P 500 −17 2 −3
– NASDAQ −59 −6 −11
Euro area
– STOXX −27 4 −5
United Kingdom
– FTSE −15 5 −2
Japan
– TOPIX −11 −5 −10
Canada
– TSE 300 5 6 −2

Source: Bloomberg
Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
2006
to date		 Since previous
Statement
Sweden −10 −2
United Kingdom −8 −1
Thailand −8 0
Euro area −8 −1
Indonesia −7 4
Switzerland −7 0
Brazil −6 7
South Korea −5 2
Singapore −5 0
Australia −4 1
Philippines −3 0
Malaysia −3 2
Canada −3 2
Japan −3 2
China −1 0
Taiwan 0 4
India 3 4
Mexico 4 1
South Africa 10 15
New Zealand 10 3
Majors TWI −5 1
Broad TWI −3 1

Source: RBA
Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Per cent
2006
to date		 Since previous
Statement
New Zealand 16 3
South Africa 15 15
Taiwan 5 4
US 5 0
China 3 −1
PNG 3 −1
Japan 2 1
Canada 2 3
Philippines 1 0
South Korea −1 2
Singapore −1 0
Switzerland −2 −1
Euro area −3 −1
Indonesia −3 4
UK −4 −2
Sweden −5 −3
TWI 2 1

Source: RBA
Table 6: Demand and Output
Percentage change
December
qtr 2005		 March
qtr 2006
 Year to
March qtr
2005
 Year to
March qtr
2006
Domestic final demand 1.6 0.8 3.4 5.0
Change in inventories(a) 0.0 0.0 −0.2 −0.3
GNE(b) 1.3 0.8 3.5 4.0
Net exports(a) −0.6 0.0 −1.7 −1.1
GDP 0.7 0.9 2.0 3.1
Memo item:
Real GDP adjusted for
changes in terms of trade		 1.3 0.7 3.4 5.1

(a) Contributions to GDP growth
(b) Includes the statistical discrepancy

Source: ABS
Table 7: House Prices
Percentage change
APM REIA Residex ABS
Jun qtr
2006		 Year to
Jun qtr		 Jun qtr
2006(a)		 Year to
Jun qtr		 Jun qtr
2006(b)		 Year to
Jun qtr		 Year to
Mar qtr
Sydney 1.2 −0.9 .. .. 2.8 1.8 −3.1
Melbourne −0.8 2.5 3.2 4.2 1.7 8.3 3.8
Brisbane 1.4 4.4 .. .. 1.1 4.8 2.8
Adelaide 2.7 5.9 2.3 4.2 .. .. 5.3
Perth 10.1 36.6 .. .. 8.2 28.3 28.8
Canberra 1.3 3.4 .. .. 0.0 4.5 1.4
Hobart 1.0 8.0 .. .. .. .. 9.9
Darwin 6.9 20.5 .. .. 1.2 17.4 17.4
Australia 2.0 5.6 .. .. 3.1(c) 9.0(c) 3.6

(a) Seasonally adjusted by the RBA
(b) Three-month-ended
(c) Excludes Adelaide and Hobart

Sources: ABS; APM; REIA; state REIs; RBA; Residex
Table 8: Fiscal Balance – General Government Sector(a)
Estimates, $ billion
2005/06 2006/07
States
NSW −0.6 −2.5
Victoria −1.2 −0.6
Queensland(b) 0.7 −1.8
WA 1.4 0.5
SA(c) 0.0 −0.2
Tasmania 0.1 −0.1
ACT −0.1 −0.2
NT −0.1 −0.1
Total states 0.1 −4.9
– Per cent of GDP 0.0 −0.5
Federal government 16.5 10.9
– Per cent of GDP 1.7 1.1
Total:
States and federal 16.6 6.0
– Per cent of GDP 1.7 0.6

(a) ABS Government Finance Statistics basis
(b) Adjusted for differing funding arrangements for future superannuation liabilities
(c) As at 2005/06 South Australian Budget Mid-Year Review

Sources: Australian Treasury; RBA; state Treasuries
Table 9: Labour Market by State
Per cent
Employment growth Unemployment rate
June qtr
2006		 Year-ended
June qtr 2006		 June
qtr 2005		 June
qtr 2006
NSW 0.4 0.9 5.1 5.4
Victoria 0.9 1.4 5.4 5.1
Queensland 1.1 2.1 5.0 4.7
WA 0.3 2.5 4.8 3.6
SA 0.3 0.8 5.0 5.1
Tasmania 0.4 3.0 6.1 6.5
Australia 0.8 1.6 5.1 5.0

Source: ABS
Table 10: Commodity Prices
Percentage change; SDR
Three months
to July 2006		 Year to
July 2006
RBA Index 1.3 17
Rural 0.1 12.7
– Wheat 4.3 30.8
– Beef & veal 1.2 2.1
– Wool 3.3 0.3
Base metals 11.2 74.9
– Aluminium −5.9 38.3
– Copper 18.7 110.2
– Nickel 42.8 76.3
Other resources −2.1 3.9
– Coking coal(a) −7.2 12.9
– Steaming coal(a) −2.1 1.0
– Iron ore(a) −8.5 −2.9
– Gold 1.6 46.6
Memo item:
Oil in US$(b) 6.9 26.7

(a) Latest available data are for May.
(b) Oil prices are not included in the RBA Index.

Sources: ABS; AWB; AWEX; Bloomberg; Meat and Livestock Australia; RBA
Table 11: Intermediaries' Indicator Lending Rates
Per cent
Current level
(1 August)		 Change since
end April
Variable rates – household
Housing:
– Major banks' standard variable 7.55 +0.25
– Major banks' basic variable 7.00 +0.25
– Mortgage managers' standard variable 7.15 +0.25
– Mortgage managers' basic variable 6.55 +0.25
Other household:
– Home equity 7.70 +0.25
– Margin loans 8.50 +0.20
– Standard credit cards 17.00 +0.25
– Low-rate/no-frills credit cards 11.00 −0.10
Variable rates – small business
Residential security:
– Overdraft 8.45 +0.25
– Term loan 7.80 +0.25
Other security:
– Overdraft 9.35 +0.25
– Term loan 8.40 +0.25
Variable rates – large business
– Overdraft 9.35 +0.25
Fixed rates (3 years)
– Housing 7.20 +0.35
– Small business 8.10 +0.45
– Swap rate 6.40 +0.30

Source: RBA
Table 12: Housing Loan Interest Rates
Per cent
Average January 1993
to July 2006		 July 2006 August 2006
Cash rate 5.50 5.75 6.00
Standard variable indicator rate 7.75 7.55 7.80(a)
Actual rate paid by new borrowers 7.50 6.95 7.20(a)

(a) Assuming full pass-through of the August tightening

Source: RBA
Table 13: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change
Average monthly growth
December qtr
2005		 March qtr
2006		 June qtr
2006
Total credit 1.1 1.3 1.2
Household 1.0 1.1 1.1
– Housing 1.1 1.2 1.2
– Personal 0.4 0.8 1.0
Business 1.2 1.4 1.2
Broad money 0.3 1.1 0.7

Source: RBA
Table 14: Non-government Bond Issuance by Sector
$ billion
Sector 2003 2004 2005 2006
March
quarter		 June
quarter
Bond issues by Australian entities
Onshore
Financial institutions 9.9 14.3 20.9 4.5 5.9
Non-financial corporations 5.6 8.0 9.3 1.9 2.4
Asset-backed 20.7 25.0 32.2 7.9 14.8
Total 36.1 47.3 62.4 14.3 23.1
 Offshore
Financial institutions 51.5 64.9 52.2 25.4 12.2
Non-financial corporations 14.7 13.6 16.5 0.6 1.7
Asset-backed 24.3 29.8 25.6 6.2 5.3
 Total 90.5 108.2 94.4 32.2 19.2
Total 126.6 155.5 156.8 46.4 42.4
A$ bond issues by non-resident entities
Onshore 7.1 21.3 26.2 15.9 4.2
Offshore 24.8 21.5 12.0 3.7 2.6
Total 31.9 42.9 38.2 19.6 6.7

Source: RBA
Table 15: Measures of Consumer Prices
Percentage change
Quarterly Year-ended
March
quarter
2006		 June
quarter
2006		 March
quarter
2006		 June
quarter
2006
CPI 0.9 1.6 3.0 4.0
– Tradables 0.8 2.7 2.8 4.8
– Tradables (ex food and petrol) 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2
Non-tradables 0.9 0.8 3.1 3.4
Underlying measures
Weighted median 0.7 0.9 2.8 3.0
Trimmed mean 0.8 0.9 2.6 2.8
CPI ex volatile items(a) 0.8 0.6 2.2 2.4

(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and petrol

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 16: Output Prices at Different Stages of Production
Percentage change
June
quarter
2006		 Year to
June
quarter
2006
Preliminary 3.1 9.4
– Domestically produced 2.7 8.7
– Imported 4.9 13.8
– Excluding oil 2.2 6.7
Intermediate 2.8 8.0
– Domestically produced 2.6 7.5
– Imported 3.8 10.8
– Excluding oil 2.1 6.2
Final(a) 1.6 4.5
– Domestically produced 1.8 4.9
– Imported 0.7 2.3
– Excluding oil 1.0 3.7

(a) Excluding exports

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 17: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2006 Year to December 2007
February
2006		 May
2006		 August
2006		 May
2006		 August
2006
Market economists(a) 2.8 2.9 3.6 2.6 2.6
Union officials(b) 3.0 3.3 4.2 3.2 4.1
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre