Forecast Table – February 2022 – ‘Central’ Scenario

This table provides additional detail on key macroeconomic variables presented in the ‘central’ scenario in the February 2022 Statement on Monetary Policy.

Table 1: Forecast Table – February 2022 – ‘Central’ Scenario(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown(b)
  Dec 2021 Jun 2022 Dec 2022 Jun 2023 Dec 2023 Jun 2024
Gross domestic product 5 5 4¼ 2½ 2 2
Household consumption 4 4¼ 5¼ 4½ 3¼ 2¾
Dwelling investment 10 7¼ 5¾ 1¾ 1½ 2
Business investment 8½ 5½ 7¼ 6 5¼ 3¼
Public demand 7¾ 9 3¾ −½ 0 1½
Gross national expenditure 5¾ 5¼ 5¼ 2¾ 2 2¼
Imports 1¼ 5¾ 15¾ 9 5 4
Exports −2½ 4½ 9¼ 7¼ 4 3
Real household disposable income 3 3½ ¾ 1¼ 1 1
Terms of trade 9½ −14 −13½ −9 −5½ −3¼
Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP 3¾ 5 4¼ 3¾ 3¾ 3½
Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) 4.7 4 3¾ 3¾ 3¾ 3¾
Employment 2.1 2 3½ 1¾ 1½ 1¼
Wage price index 2¼ 2½ 2¾ 3 3 3¼
Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour ¾ 3½ 3¼ 4 4½ 4¾
Trimmed mean inflation 2.6 3¼ 2¾ 2¾ 2¾ 2¾
Consumer price index 3.5 3¾ 3¼ 2¾ 2¾ 2¾

(a) Forecasts finalised on 2 February. The forecasts are conditioned on a path for the cash rate broadly in line with expectations derived from surveys of professional economists and financial market pricing, and assume other elements of the Bank's monetary stimulus are in line with the announcement made following the February 2022 Board meeting. Other forecast assumptions: TWI at 60, A$ at US$0.71 and Brent crude oil price at US$85bbl. The assumed rate of population growth is broadly in line with the profile set out in the Australian Government's 2021/22 Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook.
(b) Forecasts are rounded to the nearest quarter point. Shading indicates historical data, shown to the first decimal point.

Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Consensus Economics; Refinitiv; RBA