Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2025
In Brief
Inflation has increased and is back above our 2–3 per cent target range, where we expect it to stay for a while. The unemployment rate has risen a little, but the jobs market is still healthy and is expected to remain that way.
What is going on in the economy?
Inflation has picked up recently.
Some prices, like electricity, have gone up quickly because of temporary factors. Households have been spending more this year as incomes have risen. The unemployment rate has gone up a little, but the number of jobs in the economy has continued to grow.
How do we see the economy developing?
We expect growth in the Australian economy to pick up a little, before stabilising.
The interest rate cuts earlier this year will support household and business spending, and so economic growth, in the period ahead. Although global growth is expected to slow, the effect on Australia is not likely to be large – based on what we currently know.
The jobs market is expected to remain healthy.
The unemployment rate is expected to stabilise at around 4½ per cent, with businesses still hiring.
Inflation is expected to be above our 2–3 per cent target range for a while.
We expect inflation to be above 3 per cent for much of next year before declining to around the middle of our target range by late 2027.
What did the Monetary Policy Board decide?
The Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent because there is evidence of inflationary pressure in the economy.
The Board is focussed on delivering low and stable inflation and full employment.