Researcher Profiles Martin McCarthy

Martin’s research is focused on forecasting and expectation formation. He has previously worked as a consultant for the International Monetary Fund and has completed a secondment to the Australian Treasury. Martin completed a Masters and PhD in Economics at the University of Oxford.

Academic publications

• McCarthy, M and S Snudden (2025) ‘Predictable by Construction: Assessing Forecast Directional Accuracy of Temporal Aggregates’ Applied Economics, October, pp 1–16.
• Gillitzer, C and M McCarthy (2019) ‘Does global inflation help forecast inflation in industrialized countries?’ Journal of Applied Econometrics, 34(5) pp 850-857.

Other Research Papers

• McCarthy, M (2025) ‘Measuring effective searchers with quantity indexes’ Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence Discussion Paper, No 2025-17.
• McCarthy, M and S Snudden (2024) ‘Forecasts of Period-Average Exchange Rates: New Insights from Real-Time Daily Data’ Laurier Centre for Economic Research & Policy Analysis Working Paper, No 2024-6.

Policy publications

• Bradshaw N, J Hambur, M McCarthy and S Nash (2025) ‘Overview and Early Analysis of the New Wealth and Housing Asset Module (WHAM)’ Paper presented at ABS and RBA Joint Conference ‘Opening Doors: Data and Analytics Shedding Light on Housing Challenges’, Sydney, 23–24 June.
• McCarthy, M, I Ross, M Terrell and L Wang (2024) ‘Developments in Wages Growth Across Pay-setting Methods’ RBA Bulletin, October, pp 10-20.
• Loungani, P, A Mate, M McCarthy and U Collodel (2023) ‘The IMF’s Forecasting and Policy Advice Formulation Processes During the Pandemic’ IMF Independent Evaluation Office Background Paper, No 23-01/04.
• Devereux, M, F Bares, S Clifford, J Freedman, I Guceri, M McCarthy, M Simmler and J Vella (2020) ‘The OECD Global Anti-Base Erosion Proposal’ Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation Report.
• Davis, K, M McCarthy and J Bridges (2016) ‘The Labour Market during and after the Terms of Trade Boom’ RBA Bulletin, March, pp 1-10.