Financial Stability Review – September 2006 List of tables

Boxes

Table 1: World GDP(a)
Year-average percentage change
2005 Consensus forecasts
(September 2006)
2006 2007
United States 3.2 3.5 2.6
Euro area 1.5 2.5 1.8
Japan 2.6 2.8 2.2
China 10.2 10.4 9.1
Other East Asia(b) 4.8 5.1 4.7
Latin America 4.4 4.8 4.1
Emerging Europe 5.2 6.3 5.6
World 4.7 5.2 4.6

(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Weighted using market exchange rates

Sources: CEIC; Consensus Economics; IMF; RBA; Thomson Financial

Table 2: Household Assets
March 2006
Share of
total
Per cent		 Year-ended
growth
Per cent
Dwellings 56.8 5.5
Consumer durables 3.5 5.1
Financial assets(a) 39.6 18.8
Superannuation and life offices(b) 21.4 20.2
Shares and other equities 8.0 26.6
Currency and deposits 8.1 9.3
Other 2.2 17.9
Total 100.0 10.4

(a) Includes unincorporated enterprises
(b) Includes unfunded superannuation

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 3: House Prices
Year-ended percentage change, June 2006
ABS APM REIA Residex
Sydney −0.5 −0.8 −0.8 1.4
Melbourne 5.5 3.6 4.2 6.9
Brisbane 4.5 5.2 3.5 5.4
Adelaide 7.3 6.5 4.2 3.3
Perth 35.4 39.0 33.9 36.3
Canberra 6.7 3.6 7.8 5.0
Hobart 7.4 8.0 6.5 10.0
Darwin 18.7 21.8 25.1 11.7
Australia 6.4 6.3 5.3 9.2
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; REIA; Residex
Table 4: Personal Credit
Per cent, July 2006
Component Share of total Six-month-ended
annualised growth
January 2006 July 2006
Fixed 52.4 7.4 10.3
Credit card 25.8 11.1 15.4
Non-credit card revolving 21.8 7.2 7.1
of which: secured by housing 14.8 7.7 4.4
Total 100.0 8.4 10.7
Source: RBA
Table 5: Average Mortgage Repayments on New Owner-occupier Mortgages
September quarter Average loan
size(a)
$		 Mortgage rate(b)
Per cent		 Minimum
repayment
Per cent of average
household
disposable income(c)
1989 67,495 17 30.4
1995 97,997 10.5 23.7
2000 132,722 7.7 21.5
2005 222,455 6.8 26.8
2006(d) 230,562 7.2 27.7

(a) Excludes refinancing, except 1989.
(b) The banks' average standard variable housing rate prior to 2000; thereafter, the actual interest rate paid (including discounts) on new loans. The 2006 observation is calculated assuming the average discount in December 2005. 
(c) Principal and interest repayments on a 25-year mortgage with monthly repayments using the mortgage rate and average loan size; average household income is before the deduction of interest payments and excludes unincorporated enterprises.
(d) Estimate for 2006 using June quarter average loan size; household income to June. 

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 6: Banks' Business Lending by Industry
June 2006
Industry Share of
total
Per cent		 Year-ended
growth
Per cent
Construction 4.8 9.6
Manufacturing 8.4 18.5
Mining 1.6 19.9
Wholesale trade, retail trade, transport and storage 14.6 16.9
Agriculture, fishing, etc 9.9 10.9
Finance and insurance 14.2 26
Other 46.4 17.4
Total 100.0 17.5
Source: APRA
Table 7: Commercial Property
Year-ended percentage change
Office Property Prices Industrial Property Prices
Year to
June 2006		 Three years to
June 2005(b)		 Year to
June 2006		 Three years to
June 2005(b)
Sydney 9.1 3.4 12 6.2
Melbourne 12.5 −1.2 9.3 5.4
Brisbane 27.1 4.6 10.6 13.4
Adelaide 13.1 8.7 5.6 10.0
Perth 35.9 5.7 16.6 6.9
Canberra(a) 5.7 5.5 – –
Australia 13.7 2.9 11.6 6.6

(a) Industrial capital values data are not available for Canberra
(b) Average annual percentage change

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

Table 8: Banks' Half-year Profit Results(a)
Five largest banks, consolidated
2006
$b		 Growth(b)
Per cent		 Per cent of average assets(c) 
Income
Net interest income 14.6 – 2.0
Net income from wealth management 3.3 21.1 0.4
Other non-interest income 6.9 – 0.9
Expenses
Operating expenses 11.9 −2.1 1.6
Bad and doubtful debts 1.0 −4.8 0.1
Profit(d)
Net profit before tax 12.0 10.5 1.6
Net profit after tax 8.0 0.2 1.1

(a) The six months to March 2006 for ANZ Banking Group, National Australia Bank, St George Bank and Westpac Banking Corporation; and the six months to June 2006 for the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
(b) Compared to the corresponding period in 2005. Some items are not directly comparable due to the introduction of IFRS.
(c) Annualised half-year results.
(d) Before outside equity interests.

Sources: Banks' annual and interim reports

Table 9: Banks' Business Lending
June 2006, by loan size
Loan size
$		 Level
$b		 Share of
total
Per cent		 Year-ended
growth
Per cent
< 100k 24.1 5.5 −1.3
100k – 500k 70.1 16.0 5.7
500k – 2m 76.5 17.4 13.2
> 2m 268.7 61.1 24.6
Source: APRA
Table 10: Australian-owned Banks' Foreign Exposures
June 2006, ultimate risk basis
Total of which:
Level
$b		 Share
Per cent		 Cross-
border
$b		 Local
$b
New Zealand 172.8 42.3 4.2 168.6
United Kingdom 100.1 24.5 21.3 78.8
United States 45.4 11.1 24.1 21.3
Other developed countries 59.0 14.4 53.8 5.1
Developing countries 18.3 4.5 11.4 7.0
Offshore centres(a) 12.3 3.0 7.6 4.7
Other 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1
Total 408.2 100.0 122.7 285.6
Memo: Per cent of total assets 28.3   8.5 19.8

(a) Includes Hong Kong and Singapore

Source: APRA

Table 11: Traded Market Risk
Four largest banks, annual average value-at-risk, per cent of shareholders' funds(a)
2004 2005 2006(b)
Interest rate 0.02 0.02 0.01
Foreign exchange 0.01 0.01 0.01
Other(c) 0.02 0.01 0.03
Diversification benefit −0.01 −0.01 −0.01
Total 0.04 0.04 0.03

(a) Value-at-risk is calculated using a 99 per cent
(b) Data for 2006 are for the latest half year and do not include National Australia Bank.
(c) Other market risks include commodity, equity, prepayment, volatility and credit-spread risk.

Sources: Banks' annual and interim reports

Table 12: Banks' Foreign Liabilities
June 2006
Level
$b		 Share of total
Per cent
Debt securities 272.5 68.9
Intra-group transfers 64.2 16.2
Deposits 49.2 12.5
Other 9.5 2.4
Total  395.5 100.0
Source: APRA
Table 13: Banks' Offshore Debt Securities
June 2006, per cent of total outstanding
Market of issue Currency Total
AUD USD EUR GBP Other
United Kingdom 5.1 20.5 21.6 11.5 11.7 70.5
United States 0.0 10.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.9
Hong Kong 0.5 4.3 0.3 1.1 2.8 8.9
Japan 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.3 2.4
Other 1.3 2.1 0.8 0.5 2.7 7.3
Total 7.3 37.6 23.5 13.1 18.5 100.0
Source: APRA
Table 14: Long-term Ratings of Australian Banks
As at 25 September 2006
Standard & Poor's Moody's Fitch
Adelaide Bank BBB+ Baa2 –
AMP Bank A− A3 –
ANZ Banking Group AA- Aa3 AA−
Arab Bank Australia _ Baa2 A−
Bank of Queensland  BBB+ Baa2 BBB
BankWest AA− A1 –
Bendigo Bank BBB+ – BBB+
Commonwealth Bank of Australia AA− Aa3 AA
HSBC Bank Australia AA Aa3 –
ING Bank (Australia) AA Aa2 –
Macquarie Bank A A2 A+
National Australia Bank AA− Aa3 AA
St George Bank A+ A1 A+
Suncorp-Metway A A2 A
Westpac Banking Corporation AA− Aa3 AA−
Sources: Fitch; Moody's; Standard & Poor's
Table 15: Assets under Management
June 2006, consolidated
Level
$b		 Share of total
Per cent		 Year-ended growth
Per cent
Superannuation funds 544.7 53.0 22.4
Life insurers 203.7 19.8 6.5
Other managed funds 279.1 27.2 19.7
Total 1,027.5 100.0 18.2
Source: ABS
Table 16: Scenario Profiles for Key Macroeconomic Variables
Actual
2005		 Projections (year end)
2006 2007 2008
Economic variables
Real GDP(a) 2.9 −1.0 2.2 4
Consumption(a) 2.5 −2.6 0.1 2.1
Exports(a) 2.1 7.1 5.1 3.5
Imports(a) 6.7 −15.3 −6.1 4.0
Consumer price index(a) 2.8 5.0 3.3 2.5
Unemployment rate (per cent)(b) 5.1 7.1 9.0 8.7
Asset prices and financial variables
House prices(a) 2.1 −30.0 0.0 2.5
Commercial property prices(a)(c) 11.8 −10.0 0.0 0.0
3-year swap rate (per cent)(b) 5.6 8.0 7.3 6.8
10-year swap rate (per cent)(b) 5.7 8.2 7.4 6.9
10-year government bond yield (per cent)(b) 5.2 6.3 5.8 5.6
Corporate bond spreads (basis points)(b) 65 165 115 65
Bank bond spreads (basis points)(b) 50 250 150 50
Nominal TWI(a) 0.5 −36.5 9.7 7.3
Share market(a) 17.6 −27.0 8.0 10
(a) Year-ended percentage change
(b) 2005 observation is as at end December 2005
(c) Office property only Source: RBA
Table A1: Change in Shareholders' Equity
Five largest banks, September 2005(a)
AGAAP
$m		 IFRS(b)
$m		 Change
$m
Contributed equity 49,422 42,314 −7,108
Retained earnings 38,370 34,107 −4,263
Reserves 5,340 2,321 −3,019
Shareholders' equity attributable
to members of the bank		 93,132 78,742 −14,390
Minority and outside equity interests 9,241 1,836 −7,405
Total shareholders' equity 102,373 80,578 −21,795

(a) CBA data are as at June 2005
(b) IFRS figures are as at 1 October 2005 for ANZ, NAB, St George and WBC and as at 1 July 2005 for CBA

Sources: Banks' annual and interim reports

Table A2: Change in Provisions
Five largest banks, September 2005(a)
AGAAP
$m		 IFRS(b)
$m		 Change
$m
General/Collective provisions 7,370 5,863 −1,507
Specific/Individual provisions 1,056 977 −79

(a) CBA data are as at June 2005
(b) IFRS estimates are as at 1 October 2005 for ANZ, NAB, St George and WBC and as at 1 July 2005 for CBA

Sources: Banks' annual and interim reports