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Data

31 Dec 2004 RDP 2004-02
Adam Creighton, Luke Gower and Anthony Richards
Of the 108 rating changes, 48 were preceded by a watch and so are ‘anticipated’ according to our definition, and the other 93 events (including watches) are therefore ‘unanticipated’. ... The reason why we have fewer (33) rating watches than
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2004/2004-02/data.html

Appendix A: Further Description of Events

31 Dec 2004 RDP 2004-02
Adam Creighton, Luke Gower and Anthony Richards
Anticipated. Watch. Moody's. 1. 3. 1. 3. 1. 3. 12. S&P. ... Note: Medians (in parentheses) and averages have been rounded to the nearest rating notch; watches are counted as half a notch.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2004/2004-02/appendix-a.html

Results

31 Dec 2004 RDP 2004-02
Adam Creighton, Luke Gower and Anthony Richards
impact of a watch announcement or a rating change that was not preceded by a watch? ... upgrades: 41 per cent of downgrades are preceded by a watch, compared with only 20 per cent of upgrades.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2004/2004-02/result.html

Conclusion

31 Dec 2004 RDP 2004-02
Adam Creighton, Luke Gower and Anthony Richards
Download the Paper 329. KB. The results of our study provide reasonably clear evidence that announcements of rating changes (or that ratings are ‘on watch’ or ‘under review’ for change) do
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2004/2004-02/conclusion.html