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1 Nov 1996
RDP
9606
Ellis W. Tallman and Naveen Chandra
Research Discussion Papers contain the results of economic research within the Reserve Bank
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1996/9606.html
1 Nov 1996
RDP
9606
Ellis W. Tallman and Naveen Chandra
This view is also expressed by Friedman (1996) ‘… the whole concept [using monetary aggregate information as an information variable] is senseless unless observed fluctuations in money do anticipate movements of prices, ... Initially, the financial
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1996/9606/introduction.html
1 Nov 1996
RDP
9606
Ellis W. Tallman and Naveen Chandra
De Brouwer et al. argue that this finding supports the view that monetary aggregates may have limited indicator properties in the long run. ... The results indicate that the predictive role of US monetary aggregates (M1 and M2) declined in the 1990s to
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1996/9606/literature-survey.html
1 Nov 1996
RDP
9606
Ellis W. Tallman and Naveen Chandra
The base specification estimates a VAR over the full sample period with the following ordering (recursive structure): change in the interest rate, monetary aggregate growth, inflation, and real output growth. ... We adopt an agnostic view of the ordering
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1996/9606/empirical-methods.html
1 Nov 1996
RDP
9606
Ellis W. Tallman and Naveen Chandra
Research Discussion Paper – RDP 9606 The Information Content of Financial Aggregates in Australia.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1996/9606/
1 Nov 1996
RDP
9606
Ellis W. Tallman and Naveen Chandra
Monetary Policy’, NBER Working Paper No. 5465. Friedman, B.M. and K.N. ... 8802. Thoma, M. and J. Gray (1994), ‘On Leading Indicators: Getting it Straight’, 1994 Texas Conference on Monetary Economics Paper No.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1996/9606/references.html
1 Nov 1996
RDP
9606
Ellis W. Tallman and Naveen Chandra
In this section, we use out-of-sample forecasts to compare the relative accuracy of real GDP and CPI forecasts from VAR models that contain monetary aggregates with those that do ... Table 3: Out-Of-Sample Forecasts of Output Growth. Performance of
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1996/9606/out-of-sample-forecasting.html
1 Nov 1996
RDP
9606
Ellis W. Tallman and Naveen Chandra
There are isolated instances where certain aggregates contain information in an in-sample setting; however, in no case do we find that any single aggregate bears significant explanatory power across all ... Specifically, when the aggregate follows the
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1996/9606/discussion-of-results.html