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1 Aug 2021
RDP
2021-09
James Bishop and Emma Greenland
RDP 2021-09: Is the Phillips Curve Still a Curve? Evidence from the Regions Appendix A: RBA Aggregate Wage Phillips Curve Specification, Coefficients and Implied Slope.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-09/appendix-a.html
31 Aug 2021
RDP
2021-09
James Bishop and Emma Greenland
Because monetary policy only responds to aggregate shocks, region-specific variation can be used to identify the true causal relationship between inflation and unemployment (Fitzgerald et al 2020; McLeay and Tenreyro ... Moreover, including time fixed
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-09/full.html
31 Aug 2021
RDP
2021-09
James Bishop and Emma Greenland
inflation, labour market, monetary policy. The way in which wages respond to very low rates of unemployment remains a key source of uncertainty in Australia, partly due to the lack of ... These findings have implications for monetary policy, particularly
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-09.html
1 Aug 2021
RDP
2021-09
James Bishop and Emma Greenland
Economic theory suggests that aggregate inflation (in prices and wages) and unemployment outcomes are determined in equilibrium with monetary policy, while the estimates of the Phillips curve at the regional level ... As such, using our region-level
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-09/introduction.html
1 Aug 2021
RDP
2021-09
James Bishop and Emma Greenland
Because monetary policy only responds to aggregate shocks, region-specific variation can be used to identify the true causal relationship between inflation and unemployment (Fitzgerald et al 2020; McLeay and Tenreyro ... Moreover, including time fixed
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-09/is-the-phillips-curve-still-a-curve.html
1 Aug 2021
RDP
2021-09
James Bishop and Emma Greenland
Regional data provides richer variation in inflation and unemployment rates, allowing for more accurate estimation of the slope of the Phillips curve at unemployment rates rarely seen in the aggregate data. ... using it in a model with a monetary policy
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-09/conclusion.html
1 Aug 2021
RDP
2021-09
James Bishop and Emma Greenland
In contrast, in the RBA's aggregate model, wages growth depends on both the level of the unemployment gap and the change in the unemployment rate (see Appendix A).
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-09/robustness.html
31 Aug 2021
RDP
2021-09
James Bishop and Emma Greenland
Download the Non-technical summary 631. KB. The Phillips curve is one of the most important macroeconomic relationships the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) considers when making its monetary policy decisions. ... Despite these challenges, our findings
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-09/non-technical-summary.html
31 Aug 2021
RDP
2021-09
James Bishop and Emma Greenland
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-09/sections.html
31 Aug 2021
RDP
2021-09
James Bishop and Emma Greenland
The time series data underlying the RBA's aggregate model estimate are not provided in this supplementary material. ... Figures 3 and 4 are generated in ‘RBA Aggregate Models - calculations.xlsx’ in the ‘output’ subfolder.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-09/read-me.html