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RBA Glossary definition for exchange rates

exchange rates – The price of one currency expressed in terms of another currency. Any exchange rate can be quoted two ways, e.g. Australian dollars per US dollar (USD/AUD) or US dollars per Australian dollar (AUD/USD). The convention for the Australian dollar is that it is quoted as the foreign currency price of the Australian dollar. This is sometimes referred to as the 'Indirect' method of quoting.

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The Performance of Exchange Rate Forecasts

1 Jul 1986 RDP 8609
Philip W. Lowe and Robert G. Trevor
Research Discussion Papers contain the results of economic research within the Reserve Bank
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1986/8609.html

The Performance of Exchange Rate Forecasts

1 Jul 1986 RDP 8609
Philip W. Lowe and Robert G. Trevor
Research Discussion Paper – RDP 8609 The Performance of Exchange Rate Forecasts.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1986/8609/

Conclusions

1 Jul 1986 RDP 8609
Philip W. Lowe and Robert G. Trevor
RDP 8609: The Performance of Exchange Rate Forecasts 7. Conclusions. Philip W. ... Download the Paper 693. KB. The evidence presented in this paper suggests, on the basis of published data, forecasters of the exchange rate have much about which to be
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1986/8609/conclusions.html

Introduction

1 Jul 1986 RDP 8609
Philip W. Lowe and Robert G. Trevor
Despite the importance of the foreign exchange market the ability of its participants to provide reasonable forecasts of future exchange rates has been questioned widely. ... and comments such as “predicting the exchange rate level of the $A even one
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1986/8609/introduction.html

The Forecasts

1 Jul 1986 RDP 8609
Philip W. Lowe and Robert G. Trevor
Over this period of 41 weeks a total of 406 individual forecasts were provided on various exchange rates. ... Figure 1 is a plot of the actual (solid line) and forecasted (broken line) $A/US$ exchange rate.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1986/8609/forecasts.html

References

1 Jul 1986 RDP 8609
Philip W. Lowe and Robert G. Trevor
RDP 8609: The Performance of Exchange Rate Forecasts References. Philip W. ... 1983). Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies: Do they Fit out of Sample?
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1986/8609/references.html

Benchmark Models and Evaluation Criteria

1 Jul 1986 RDP 8609
Philip W. Lowe and Robert G. Trevor
Of the above variables typically included in exchange rate models, the interest rate differential is most likely to influence weekly movements in exchange rates. ... In this simple time series model the coefficients on lagged exchange rates remain set at
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1986/8609/benchmark-models-and-evaluation-criteria.html

Performance of Individual Forecasters

1 Jul 1986 RDP 8609
Philip W. Lowe and Robert G. Trevor
RDP 8609: The Performance of Exchange Rate Forecasts 6. Performance of Individual Forecasters. ... In fact, two of the four correlations between the same ratios for the different exchange rates are negative, although insignificant at the 10 per cent
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1986/8609/performance-of-individual-forecasters.html

A Comparison of the /US$ and US$/Yen Forecasts

1 Jul 1986 RDP 8609
Philip W. Lowe and Robert G. Trevor
RDP 8609: The Performance of Exchange Rate Forecasts 5. A Comparison of the $A/US$ and US$/Yen Forecasts. ... For both exchange rates, the group mean and median forecasts predict the exchange rate's moving in the correct direction just less than two
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1986/8609/comparison-of-the-$a-us$-and-us$-yen-forecasts.html

Forecast Performance of the Group Plan and /us$ Forecasts

1 Jul 1986 RDP 8609
Philip W. Lowe and Robert G. Trevor
RDP 8609: The Performance of Exchange Rate Forecasts 4. Forecast Performance of the Group Plan and $A/us$ Forecasts. ... As a result he predicts a sharper fall in the exchange rate than he was previously predicting.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1986/8609/forecast-performance-of-the-group-plan-and-$a-us$-forecasts.html