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RBA Glossary definition for central bank

central bank – A non-commercial bank, which may or may not be independent of government, which has some or all of the following functions: conduct monetary policy; oversee the stability of the financial system; issue currency notes; act as banker to the government; supervise financial institutions and regulate payments systems.

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Appendix A: Measures of Uncertainty Presented by Foreign Central Banks

31 Dec 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
RDP 2012-07: Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts Appendix A: Measures of Uncertainty Presented by Foreign Central Banks. ... References. European Central Bank. Range with no point estimate. Twice the mean absolute error made in the past,
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/appendix-a.html

Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts

1 Nov 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
Research Discussion Papers contain the results of economic research within the Reserve Bank
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/

How Do These Estimates Compare?

31 Dec 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
This may sound a trivial accomplishment, but it is one that foreign central banks have often not achieved. ... If there were predictable deviations, it would mean that the central bank was expecting that it would miss its target and was not acting to
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/how-estimates-compare.html

Introduction

31 Dec 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
Perceptions that the central bank was wrong (whether well-founded or not) can undermine credibility and transparency. ... For these and other reasons, many central banks provide measures of uncertainty with their forecasts.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/introduction.html

Alternatives and Limitations

31 Dec 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
Reflecting this, no one model provides a good guide to the Reserve Bank forecast, in which judgement plays a large role. ... Foreign central banks have dealt with this issue in different ways.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/alt-limitations.html

References

31 Dec 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices. , April, p 9. Bank of Japan (2011),. ... 13(3), pp 253–263. ECB (European Central Bank) (2009), ‘New Procedure for Constructing Eurosystem and ECB Staff Projection Ranges’.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/references.html

Other Properties of the Confidence Intervals

31 Dec 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
For example, the November 2011 SMP described the risks to the central projection of global activity as skewed to the downside because of financial problems in the euro area. ... In particular, many foreign central banks assume that the errors are
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/other-properties-confidence-intervals.html

Estimates of Forecast Uncertainty

31 Dec 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
One popular way of presenting forecast uncertainty is through a confidence interval or fan chart, in which a margin of error is added to either side of the central forecast. ... This is illustrated in Appendix A, which describes measures of uncertainty
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/estimates-forecast-uncertainty.html