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The Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity: Is it Near-rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market?

1 May 1991 RDP 9103
David W.R. Gruen and Gordon D. Menzies
Research Discussion Papers contain the results of economic research within the Reserve Bank
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1991/9103.html

The Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity: Is it Near-Rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market?

1 May 1991 RDP 9103
David W. R. Gruen and Gordon D. Menzies
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1991/9103/

Appendix

1 May 1991 RDP 9103
David W.R. Gruen and Gordon D. Menzies
RDP 9103: The Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity: Is it Near-Rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market?
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1991/9103/appendix.html

References

1 May 1991 RDP 9103
David W.R. Gruen and Gordon D. Menzies
RDP 9103: The Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity: Is it Near-Rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market? ... Cumby, R.E. (1988), β€˜Is it risk? Explaining deviations from uncovered interest parity.’ Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 279–299.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1991/9103/references.html

Introduction

1 May 1991 RDP 9103
David W.R. Gruen and Gordon D. Menzies
RDP 9103: The Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity: Is it Near-Rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market? ... It follows from the joint hypothesis that the foreign exchange market is efficient, that traders are risk-neutral and that transaction costs
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1991/9103/introduction.html

Data Appendix

1 May 1991 RDP 9103
David W.R. Gruen and Gordon D. Menzies
RDP 9103: The Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity: Is it Near-Rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market? ... For Japan, it is the end-month observation on the 7-year bond rate.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1991/9103/data-appendix.html

The Model

1 May 1991 RDP 9103
David W.R. Gruen and Gordon D. Menzies
RDP 9103: The Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity: Is it Near-Rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market? ... We now posit an expected utility function and maximize it with respect to the portfolio shares.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1991/9103/model.html

Discussion

1 May 1991 RDP 9103
David W.R. Gruen and Gordon D. Menzies
RDP 9103: The Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity: Is it Near-Rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market? ... In our model framework, it would occur when the short-term differential between foreign and domestic interest rates is 3%p.a.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1991/9103/discussion.html